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Ripple Price Analysis – Technicals suggest a continued bull trend

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Ripple (XRP) rose to meteoric heights in December 2017, reaching what some are calling ‘Big Mac’ parity, only to pull back over 80% in January. The market cap now stands US$105.6 billion, with US$2.65 billion in trading volume over the last 24 hours.

XRP the token is a separate entity from other companies with the same namesake, including the banking network RippleNet (originally Ripple Labs), the social network Ripple Works, the advertising company Ripple Media, and the plant-based milk company Ripple Foods.

While XRP aims to disrupt the remittance and cross-border payment industry generally, the main goal of RippleNet is to take on SWIFT, a telecom cooperative created over 40 years ago that is currently used to send secure financial messages between banks. These messages exclude clearing or settlement.

Ripple recently celebrated its fifth birthday, having been created in 2012, and now claims over 100 financial and banking partnerships around the world, most recently with the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority. However, a Bloomberg article on January 25th suggested banks “have no interest in using XRP.”

The network has an existing supply of ~100 billion, 55 billion of which was placed in escrow in December 2017. By securing the lion’s share of XRP in escrow, anyone can now mathematically verify the maximum supply that can enter the market, and eliminates any concern that Ripple could flood the market. Taking this into account, the circulating supply stands around ~US$46.48 billion.

According to recent Bitmex research, 7 billion XRP was held by Ripple as of January 31st, 39 billion XRP has been distributed, and 55 billion XRP remains in escrow. Distribution and internal holdings have fluctuated over time with supply estimates based on available data from 2013-2015 unable to reconcile “how many XRP were sold, at what price, or how many were given away” according to the research team.

However, Ripple states that market participants purchased US$20.1 million in Q4 2017. These participants tend to be institutional buyers, and their purchases typically include restrictions that mitigate the risk of market instability due to potential subsequent large sales. Additionally, the company sold US$71.5 million worth of XRP programmatically, as a small percentage of overall exchange volume.

Ripple Price Analysis 12 Feb 2017 2

Source: BitMEX Research, Ripple.com

XRP transactions per day have steadily increased in an upward trend since 2014. The network, RippleNet, is composed of; xCurrent, which processes global payments for customers; xRapid, to source on-demand liquidity; and xVia, to plug into RippleNet to send payments.

It was recently announced that xCurrent will be used Chinese ecommerce company LianLian international. Non-bank financial services institution, Cuallix, recently became the first worldwide institution to use xRapid, reducing the cost of sending cross-border payments from the U.S. to Mexico. Moneygram, a remittance service, is also piloting a xRapid program.

Ripple Price Analysis 12 Feb 2017 3At US$0.0067 currently, XRP has the cheapest average transaction cost among other high cap coins (not shown). XRP, Ethereum Classic, and Dogecoin have had a similar fee market over the past few months with Zcash consistently cheaper than all others. For the most part, transaction fees denominated in USD rise and fall in line with the cost of the coin itself.

Ripple Price Analysis 12 Feb 2017 4The network value to estimated on-chain daily transaction (NVT) ratio can be used to assess the network’s relative utility over time, although NVT is difficult to compare between coins which use different transactions types. The XRP NVT ratio has been trending lower since July 2015 suggesting transactional use has increased since that time, reaching a low of 75 in January.

Ripple Price Analysis 12 Feb 2017 4Exchange traded volume is largely led by Korea (KRW) with a >5% premium on Bithumb, an exchange with fee-free trading which inherently inflates reported volume data. XRP has been the

most popular market added to Bithumb since being added in May 2017. XRP is not nearly as widely traded in JPY or CNY, largely due to trading pair availability and continues to be added to exchanges around the world, most recently Zebpay in India.

Ripple Price Analysis 12 Feb 2017 5Technical Analysis

While traders normally use charts from the highest volume exchange, the more broad XRP/Tether (USDT) market has the most available data. These charts show that the explosive gains from late December have been erased.

Indicators like Ichimoku Cloud, Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and chart patterns can be used to determine if the trend remains bullish. Details of the indicators and methods used can be found here.

XRP had been in a bullish triangle consolidation pattern throughout 2017, while holding above the 100EMA on the two-day chart and the 200EMA on the daily chart. After the initial breakout, price found resistance at the yearly R1 pivot and 7.618 fib extension.

Ripple Price Analysis 12 Feb 2017 6A bearish double top pattern has begun to form on high timeframes. However, due to the sharp inverted V structure, an Adam-Eve or Adam-Adam is possible. Horizontal support for the pattern is ~US$0.70. Despite the pattern being bearish, this would suggest a gain well North of US$2.50.

Ripple Price Analysis 12 Feb 2017 7The  Ichimoku Cloud metrics on the daily chart are all bearish, with a potential bearish Tenkan bounce at the current price level. However, the distance between the Kijun (mean) and Tenkan suggest that XRP is heavily oversold.

If price cannot break the Tenkan, bearish continuation is strongly indicated. A long, flat Kumo at US$1.73 is a magnet for price so long as price does not make a lower low. Should bullish momentum exist, a push to that zone, near the Kumo twist on February 26th, is likely.

Price has also held above the 200EMA, just as it did during a multi month-long period triangle consolidation pattern. Price will likely continue consolidating between the 50EMA and the 200EMA until either level is broken, with higher volume.

Ripple Price Analysis 12 Feb 2017 9The Ichimoku Cloud on the four hour chart also is decidedly bearish, but price has broken the Cloud for the first time since dropping below the Cloud in January. This is the earliest indication of a trend reversal. A long entry signal would follow a bullish Kumo breakout and bullish Kumo twist, and/or a bullish 50/200EMA cross.

Ripple Price Analysis 12 Feb 2017 10Lastly, the trading in the bitcoin (BTC) market indicates that XRP has bounced off a key horizontal level and broken the 50EMA after completing a bullish reversal chart pattern, the falling wedge. XRP fell from this level after forming a bearish descending triangle in May. The measured move and 1.618 fib extension yield a projected target zone of 20,000-25,000 Satoshis.

Ripple Price Analysis 12 Feb 2017 11Conclusion

XRP is a controversial cryptocurrency for several reasons. First, the supply and consensus mechanism suggests that XRP is neither distributed nor decentralized. While nothing is inherently wrong with this, it can be misleading to newcomers who do not understand the differences and nuances between blockchain projects.

Second, major news outlets have reported banks having no interest in actually using XRP, yet RippleNet continues to announce partnerships with multiple banks and companies around the world, seemingly fulfilling their mission to bring broader adoption of the XRP network across the globe – beyond just speculation.

Technicals suggest a continued bull trend, after a return to the mean from being heavily overbought. A USD value of $2.50 and a BTC value of 20k sats is likely within the next few weeks, should the trend continue with its current momentum.

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Crypto News Roundup and Interviews for Jan. 23, 2020

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In addition to our news roundup, for the next few episodes we’ll also be highlighting select interviews from the CoinDesk crew reporting inside the world economic forum in Davos, Switzerland.  Today we’ll hear from former CFTC Chair Christopher Giancarlo on his proposed Digital Dollar push. We’ll end the show by taking a walk with a modern cypherpunk and senior reporter Leigh Cuen.

  • Bitcoin finally breaking out of a range where it’s held over the past week, but it’s bad news for the bulls
  • During an 18-hour deposition, Telegram CEO Pavel Durov pushed back against a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
  • In a separate case tying together two recent scandals, former QuadrigaCX users want information about the recently indicted ‘Shadow Bank’ Crypto Capital
  • US Exchange Gemini completes accounting firm Deloitte’s
    SOC Type 2 evaluation, their highest security rating.
  • In Virginia, a lawmaker is pushing the state government to study how blockchain might be used to secure elections and how it might impact the economy moving forward.
  • In Nevada, a former beauty queen turned bitcoin-friendly entrepreneur is running as a Republican for a U.S. congressional seat
  • Amun, a Swiss digital-asset issuer has launched a new vehicle for traders who want to bet on a drop in bitcoin’s price
  • In Tokyo, two men have been accused of stealing 78 million yen (roughly $712,000) from blockchain project VIPSTAR
  • GreekReporter.com said Thursday that Greece’s Council of State approved Alexander Vinnik’s extradition to France where he will face charges of money laundering.

Today’s interviews:

  • Ex-CFTC Chair Christopher Giancarlo on why he launched Digital Dollar Project
  • Why is a Cypherphunk in Davos?

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Law Firm Representing Quadriga’s Ex-Users Want Info About ‘Shadow Bank’ Crypto Capital

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Miller Thomson, the court-appointed legal counsel for former users of the QuadrigaCX cryptocurrency exchange, is asking for help identifying any records related to Crypto Capital, which may be holding some of the exchange’s funds.

In a letter emailed to the exchange’s former customers and posted to its website, Miller Thomson wrote that Crypto Capital Corp., a “shadow bank” registered in Panama, “may have been a payment processor” for the exchange and is asking any customers who have emails or other documents which might be related to Crypto Capital to forward the communications to the legal firm.

“Representative Counsel has been investigating, since its appointment, whether any Quadriga funds were potentially retained by Crypto Capital,” Wednesday’s letter said.

An archived snapshot of Crypto Capital’s website lists QuadrigaCX as a client.

The letter referenced the ongoing court case between the U.S. Department of Justice and Crypto Capital, noting that the shadow bank’s operators are currently under indictment. Reginald Fowler, one of the alleged operators of the company, is in court

and may be heading to trial on charges of bank fraud, operating an unlicensed money transmitter and conspiracy.

Fowler intended to plead guilty to one charge of operating an unlicensed money transmitter, but negotiations between his attorneys and the prosecutors have yet to be concluded. He is now scheduled to appear in a New York courthouse in late April.

Wednesday’s letter also referenced the fact that Bitfinex, another crypto exchange, has claimed to be defrauded by Crypto Capital and is seeking information and rights to seized assets in the shadow bank’s possession in the U.S., Portugal and the U.K., three jurisdictions which have reportedly frozen Crypto Capital’s assets.

“As you are aware, Ernst & Young Inc. (the ‘Trustee’) has been unable to locate QuadrigaCX’s basic corporate records or accounting records. As a result, Representative Counsel is asking Affected Users for assistance on this matter to uncover whether Crypto Capital held Quadriga funds,” the letter said.

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TOP 3 Price Prediction: BTC, ETH, XRP — Uncertainty in Market Continues

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TOP 3 Price Prediction: BTC, ETH, XRP — Uncertainty in Market Continues

The cryptocurrency market has partially restored its position. Meanwhile, the altcoin market today is mixed. Some of the top 10 coins are located in the green zone, while others are in the red. 

Top 10 coins by Coinstats

Top 10 coins by Coinstats

The key data below for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP indicate what’s to come.

NameTickerMarket CapPrice Volume (24h)Change (24h)
BitcoinBTC$157 602 979 990$8 671,44$24 584 873 2460,23%
EthereumETH$18 419 910 476$168,40$9 910 073 6690,11%
XRPXRP$10 305 414 349$0,235952$1 623 122 240-0,19%

BTC/USD 

The technical picture of Bitcoin (BTC) has not changed much since Monday. For a moment, there was an attempt to break the $8,550 level. 

BTC/USD chart by TradingView

BTC/USD chart by TradingView

However, the downward movement under pressure from the bears fit into the framework of the current volatility and it was bought back quickly enough.MUST READBitcoin (BTC) Price Skyrocketed to $14,000 Last Time This Indicator Turned Green – 

Over the past three days, local consolidation has formed. All in all, the strategy does not change, since for a longer time period, the trend has persisted and the line of least resistance is still directing upwards.

Bitcoin is trading at $8,649 at press time.

ETH/USD

Ethereum (ETH) quotes remain trading

sideways. Based on an analysis of the trading activity of participants, it can be assumed that interest in purchases is held by small speculators, while large buyers still prefer to stay away.

ETH/USD chart by TradingView

ETH/USD chart by TradingView

On the hourly chart, the chief altcoin is likely to decline in the short-term. The line of the RSI indicator is going down, confirming the ongoing dominance of buyers. Regarding the nearest price forecast, traders might expect the coin to be located at around the $165.50 level.

Ethereum is trading at $166.96 at press time.

XRP/USD

XRP is trading without significant changes. After a rebound from the support level, quotes have remained sideways.

XRP/USD chart by TradingView

XRP/USD chart by TradingView

Even though XRP has continued a sideways trading trend for a few days, it will face a decline shortly. The rate of the coin has decreased by almost 2% over the last day. What is more, the MACD indicator has just switched to a bearish trend. Summing up, the more likely scenario is a drop to the closest support of $0.23.

XRP is trading at $0.2344 at press time.#Bitcoin Price Prediction#Ethereum Price Prediction#Ripple Price Prediction


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