Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee is emerging as a voice of reason for cryptocurrency investors even as bitcoin continues to trade in the doldrums. JPMorgan Chase’s former chief equity strategist is applying the lessons of the stock market to bitcoin investing. Trying to time the market is “challenging” because bitcoin even in its short history has proven to generate most of its annual returns over less than a two-week period each year, according to Lee in a note entitled “Why HODL?”
Lee also recently recommended that bitcoin investors buy the dip, and now he’s adding to it, saying, “we think investors should be patient buyers of bitcoin here.” It may be easier said than done, given the fact that bitcoin remains lower by double-digit percentage year-to-date. Patience, however, is a virtue when investing, whether it’s the stock market or cryptocurrencies.
Lee said: “Market timing is generally discouraged in traditional equity investing.” He went on to provide the following example –
“If an investor missed out on the 10 best days (for S&P 500) each year, the annualized return drops to 5.4 percent (ex-10 best), from 9.2 percent. In other words, the case for buy and hold in equities is the opportunity cost of missing out on the 10 best days.”
The pressure is real, and bitcoin is struggling to break out beyond the USD 8,000 level, which as Fundstrat points out is the breakeven price for BTC mining. But bitcoin investors can breathe a sigh of relief.
“The overhang from regulatory risk is generally keeping investors sidelined. However, we see positive catalysts for Bitcoin later in 2018, including the clarification of regulatory hurdles.” — Fundstrat analysts
Earlier this month, Fundstrat’s Lee warned that altcoins, which had ridden on the coattails of bitcoin during the leading cryptocurrency’s record run, are headed for a period of “purgatory” to unfold for 150-175 days before the lesser known coins resume their upward climb. Fundstrat paints a picture of a cyclical market for altcoins, which is another parallel to the broader equity markets. As for the leading coins, Lee and his research team are predicting a “strong” 2018 led by “more established blockchains growing” and “upside for ETH and BTC.”
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) forecast and analysis on January 24, 2020
Cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading at 8563. Cryptocurrency quotes are trading above the moving average with a period of 55. This indicates a bullish trend on Bitcoin. At the moment, cryptocurrency quotes are moving near the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator stripes.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) forecast and analysis on January 24, 2020
As part of the Bitcoin exchange rate forecast, a test level of 8420 is expected. Where can we expect an attempt to continue the growth of BTC/USD and the further development of the upward trend. The purpose of this movement is the area near the level of 9160. The conservative area for buying Bitcoin is located near the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator strip at 8400.
Cancellation of the
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) forecast and analysis on January 24, 2020 implies a test level of 8420. Further, growth is expected to continue to the area above the level of 9160. The conservative buying area is located near the area of 8400. The breakdown of the cryptocurrency growth option will be the breakdown of the level of 8320. In this case, we should expect further fall.
Billionaire investor advises people to stay away from Bitcoin
- Ray Dalio said that Bitcoin is too volatile to be a store of wealth, at present. Instead, he suggests a small allocation in gold.
- He also noted that currently, “cash is trash” and that investors must look for a well-diversified portfolio.
The founder of investment firm Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, has warned people not to get involved with speculative currencies like Bitcoin in 2020. Appearing on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Dalio said:
There’s two purposes of money, a medium of exchange and a store hold of wealth, and Bitcoin is not effective in either of those cases now.
He believes that Bitcoin is too volatile to be a
Because of the volatility, you can’t go next to it. Someday, you know, I would say Libra or something with more stable value has got more potential. But also, who is going to do the buying? Central bankers and others? What are they going to hold as reserves?
What has been tried and true? Are they going to hold digital Bitcoin? They are going to hold gold. That is a reserve currency, and it has been a reserve currency for 1,000 years… A bit of gold is a diversifier, and that’s the advice I can give.
He also noted that currently, “cash is trash” and that investors must look for a well-diversified portfolio.
Visa continues to dwarf Bitcoin in this important metric
Despite optimistic predictions, Bitcoin still has a long way to go before it can compete with companies such as Visa. The fiat currency giant reported transaction volume of over $11.2 trillion in 2018, while Bitcoin network only managed to transact around $2.2 trillion until 2019.
Visa dominates all payment processors with $11 trillion transaction volume
While the crypto industry as a whole seems confident that digital assets will ultimately replace traditional fiat currencies, the reality is that there’s a long way to go before the two can even compete in the same category.
The growing transaction volume of most high-market cap cryptocurrencies definitely shows that major improvements are made. However, most of that growth fades away when compared to the big players in the payment processing industry.
According to its annual performance report, Visa saw a total transaction volume of just over $11.2 trillion. The volume is the sum of both the payment volume and cash volume, with the payment volume being the total monetary value of transactions on Visa-branded cards and payment products, the company explained in the report.
This is a huge increase from the $10.3 trillion the company reported in 2017 and an even bigger increase from the $8.1 trillion in total volume
Bitcoin still has a long way to go to catch up with Visa
Bitcoin‘s numbers aren’t nearly as impressive as these. However, it’s worth noting that digital asset data can often be misleading and can never be taken at face value. As a Fidelity Digital Assets research put it, one of the most commonly overstated measures is Bitcoin’s transaction volume.
Most data providers use an unspent transaction output (UTXO) system, which doesn’t distinguish between economic and non-economic transactions. Because of that, the difference between the adjusted and unadjusted transaction value figures are often very significant.
According to the report, Bitcoin’s total adjusted transaction value from inception to Dec. 11, 2019, was approximately $2.2 trillion. It’s unadjusted transaction volume, however, stands at approximately $7.5 trillion.
While the $2.2 trillion is a significant achievement for a system as young and as novel as Bitcoin is, it’s still a long way behind Visa. Bitcoin’s transaction volume was amassed over a period of more than 10 years, while Visa recorded its $11.2 trillion from September 2017 to September 2018.