A slight beam of good news shines over the bleeding cryptocurrency market as Arizona State University Professor Dragan Boscovic discusses the future of Bitcoin from a trading standpoint. The scholar seems to think that Bitcoin is regarded by investors as a ‘valued investment opportunity’.
Dragan Boscovic is a computer science research professor at Arizona State University (ASU) and also a director of the Blockchain Research Lab – a project that aims to further the development blockchain-based technology’s applications. In a recent interview with ASU Now, Boscovic offers his insight on Bitcoin’s past, present, and future as an investment asset.
BITCOIN GOES TO WALL STREET
In December 2017, with the eyes of the financial world firmly fixed on Bitcoin, two major futures exchanges – CBOE and CME Group – began offering bitcoin futures. It was an exciting time for the cryptocurrency. The launch of futures trading marked a turning point in Wall Street’s sentiment toward the crypto industry, allowing for a gradual, but nonetheless definitive, entry into mainstream adoption.
The excitement continued into the new year as the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which also owns the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), announced that it was developing a cryptocurrency data feed. The service, which gives financial firms access to “streaming real-time, end of day and historical data for the most actively traded digital currencies,” was rolled out in March. In addition, the NYSE is developing its own online trading platform.
According to Boscovic, cryptocurrencies, while still relatively new, have already been around for nearly a decade – well within the normal time frame for a new technology to gain traction. The professor also notes that “the industry now sees an opportunity to offer a new asset for trade, broadening choices for investors.”
HOLDING UP TO TRADITIONAL CURRENCIES
One key difference between cryptocurrencies and fiat – or sovereign – currencies, Boscovic points out, is the fact that crypto, unlike fiat, cannot be directly influenced by governments. He explains:The vulnerability of a digital currency is based on demand, and it is not open to influence by additional supply. A government can bootstrap an economy by introducing a new supply of traditional currency to influence borrowing. That can’t happen with cryptocurrency.
From a consumer’s standpoint, cryptocurrencies introduce a new choice – an intangible asset which brings with it further investment opportunities.
WHAT’S IN IT FOR OTHER CRYPTOCURRENCIES?
Boscovic believes that the acceptance of Bitcoin into traditional investment instruments is also going to open the door to other cryptocurrencies:Institutional investors are recognizing this new asset as a valued investment opportunity; this will encourage individual investors. It will also encourage consumers and small shops to start trading in cryptocurrency.
While he refused to make a firm statement about the legitimacy that Bitcoin receives from potential inclusion in the NYSE, the professor did acknowledge that it is offers a serious confidence boost:It’s an encouraging development. Consumers do develop confidence when they see a large institution such as the stock exchange backing and selling cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Correction to $9,500 Could Be Followed by 20% Drop: Analyst
Bitcoin (BTC) has been absolutely slammed over the past week. Since passing above $13,000 for the second time this year last Wednesday, the crypto has been on a clearly downward-sloping trend.
In fact, as of the time of writing this article, Bitcoin has lost 25% in the past week, falling to as low as $9,300.
Despite the fact that optimists are expecting for bulls to experience some form of short-term reprieve, historical trends and other key indicators predict a further unwinding of the cryptocurrency bull market.
Bitcoin Poised to Hit $7,500
Conceptualized by Trace Mayer, an early Bitcoin investor and funder of Kraken, the Mayer Multiple is a way of determining if BTC is either overbought, fairly valued, or oversold. It is calculated by putting the asset’s current price over its 200-day moving average.
Per an analysis of this indicator (currently sits at 1.6) by CryptoKea, a little-known analyst that accurately called the recent drop to at least $9,700 earlier this month, if you consider the Multiple, the ongoing correction looks much like the first “major correction” of 2017’s bull run.
He notes that if history repeats itself and Bitcoin reverses out of its current short-term bearish trend like it did in 2012 and 2017, it could find support anywhere from $7,148 to $8,700. This corresponds to 1.20 times to 1.46 times of the 200-day moving average, which currently sits at $5,957.
Most likely, however, Kea notes that the “most probable target” as per the use of the Mayer Multiple will be $7,505 — another 20% drop from the current Bitcoin price of $9,600.
This somewhat lines up with the target of $8,000 that other analysts hold. Per previous reports from NewsBTC, Timothy Peterson, a prominent American crypto fund manager, notes that Bitcoin’s current active account figure suggests that BTC is overvalued.
According to Peterson’s model, which takes a 30-day median (as of July 13th) of the number of active accounts on the Bitcoin blockchain, BTC currently has a fair valuation of just above $8,000.
In a tweet issued on Saturday, Josh Rager, a prominent technical analyst and cryptocurrency commentator, looked to this same level. View image on Twitter
Rager notes that a “confluence” of chart data and on-chain data suggests that a pullback “would likely bottom out at $8,000”. As he explained in the chart above, $8,000 acted as a key horizontal support and resistance level in the recent rally and 2018’s crash.
What’s more, there is also a CME Bitcoin futures gap around $8,500, which is one of the last gaps waiting to be filled.
And as Alfonso Esparza, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp, recently told Bloomberg: “[Bitcoin] continues to trade lower as comments from President Trump put downward pressure on the cryptocurrency. It could fall further to $8,000, giving back all the gains made in June.”
Drop Might be Over?
Despite this, one analyst believes that the drop is most likely over. In fact, he drew attention to almost five signs why this may very well be the case, even if it sounds crazy.
Firstly, the one-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic iteration of this indicator are at their lowest levels since at least February, entering the “oversold” range. The one-day Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has tapped the zero level, despite the fact that Bitcoin is in a raging bull market according to most analysis.
Also, the Elder’s Forse Index, an indicator meant to exhibit the strength of moves, is at its lowest since November 2018; and historical volatility is almost at 100%, implying a move to the upside to return volatility to levels deemed normal.
Bitcoin Network Is Moving $3 Billion Daily, Up 210% Since April
Bitcoin’s average transaction volume is topping $3 billion per day, data from crypto analytics site Coinmetrics.io reveals as of July 16.
Bitcoin’s Uptrend in Daily Transaction Value Eclipsing Altcoins’
The data — which has been adjusted to remove noise and certain artifacts, per Coinmetrics — shows an impressive uptrend in the USD value for the volume of the coin’s transactions and transfers over the past 90 days.
On April 17, the average daily value was at $1.04 billion as compared with $3.22 billion on July 16, an almost 210% increase.
The top coin has seen a significantly higher spike in volume as compared with ether (ETH), which saw a 77% increase over the same time period — from a daily average of $370 million to $657 million. XRP has seen a still milder uptrend, at 61% — with the value of daily transactions climbing from $152.5 million in mid-April to $245.6 in mid-July.
3-month chart for BTC transactions, transfers, value, adjusted, in USD. Source: Coinmetrics.io
Bitcoin broke the $3 billion daily average mark on July 11, Coinmetrics’ data shows, when the coin was circling the $11,500 price point. Despite trading roughly $2,000 lower as of today — having taken a steep 11.4% hit on the day and over 24% on the week — average daily transaction value has continued to climb.
Commentators have today argued that the coin’s short-term downtrend was triggered by an antagonistic response from the United States government to Facebook’s Libra coin, which has extended to the cryptocurrency space more broadly.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt anticipates that total market cap could now correct by as much as 80% — yet argues that most of the damage will be shouldered by altcoins, not Bitcoin.
On July 7, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin’s hash rate had hit a new all-time high of 65.87 EH/s. Nevertheless, despite the week’s price fluctuations, this figure has continued to soar north, reaching almost 73 EH/s to press time.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) forecast and analysis on July 17, 2019
Cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading at 10835. Cryptocurrency quotes are trading below the moving average with a period of 55. This indicates a bearish trend on Bitcoin. At the moment, cryptocurrency quotes are moving near the middle border of the Bollinger Bands indicator.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) forecast and analysis on July 17, 2019
As part of the Bitcoin exchange rate forecast, the test is expected to be at the level of 11250. Where should we expect an attempt to continue the fall of BTC/USD and the further development of the downward trend. The purpose of this movement is the area near the level of 9450. The conservative area for selling Bitcoin is located near the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator at the level of 11950.
Cancellation of the option to continue the decline in Bitcoin will be the breakdown of the area of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. As well as the moving average with a period of 55 and closing of quotations of the pair above the area of 12100. This will indicate a change in the current trend in favor of the bullish for BTC/USD. In case of a breakdown of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator bands, one should expect an acceleration of the fall of the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) forecast and analysis on July 17, 2019 implies a test level of 11250. Further, it is expected to continue falling to the area below the level of 9450. The conservative area for selling Bitcoin is located area of 11950. Canceling the option of falling cryptocurrency will be a breakdown of the level of 12100. In this case, we can expect continuation growth.