Tom Lee, often regarded as Wall Street’s foremost Bitcoin permabull, recently made an appearance on CNBC “Fast Money” to outline why Bitcoin could still see further upside.
Market Dominance Reflects Bitcoin Bulls
On Monday afternoon, Tom Lee, the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, highlighted the importance of Bitcoin’s dominance figure for CNBC viewers.
Bitcoin, 'the best house in a tough market,' is now bouncing back, says Wall Street bull Tom Lee https://t.co/OwxWN8SB5H
— CNBC (@CNBC) August 7, 2018
The analyst, who has become well-known for his cryptocurrency-related insight, brought attention to the Bitcoin’s historical command over the industry, with the asset holding an 80% (or more) market share value for the better part of ten years. The Fundstrat executive went on to note that altcoins have since seen positive price action, moving Bitcoin’s dominance to an all-time low at 37% in January as a direct result of ICOs and overly-ambitious projects.
While many expected Bitcoin to recede into obscurity as 2018 moved forward, Lee added that Bitcoin’s recent resurgence suggests that Bitcoin still holds the coveted position as the most reliable cryptocurrency investment. He elaborated, stating:
“Bitcoin’s dominance has been creeping up. In fact, in the last couple of weeks, it has soared to the highest level all year and it has hit about 48%. So it tells us that the news we have seen, from the SEC saying that Bitcoin is a commodity, to ICE’s announcement and a potential for a (Bitcoin) ETF, are causing investors to decide that Bitcoin is the best house in a tough neighborhood. So I think that Bitcoin dominance is actually showing that the market is reacting to what is good news.”
This Bitcoin-centric bull sentiment has become a common sight in the eyes of investors, with industry leaders like Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz and Peter Smith of Blockchain both indicating that they see Bitcoin outperforming the market in the near future. Whether this sentiment is a result of the positive news surrounding Bitcoin-related products, or institutional affection specifically aimed at this asset, still remains to be seen.
“This (Decline) Is In-Line With Previous Bear Retracements”
Lee went on to bring attention to the so-called “Bitcoin Misery Index (BMI),” which aims to encapture what a “holder of Bitcoin would be feeling” at any point in time. The BMI indicator tends to be a contrarian indicator, added the analyst, with an under 27/100 rating often catalyzing a Bitcoin uptick, instead of a downtrend as some would rightfully assume. As it stands, the BMI sits at a comfortable rating of 39, which Lee went on to note that this should not be a bearish signal for investors. The Bitcoin bull declared:
“Bitcoin isn’t broken if it’s holding at these levels. I think people are afraid it is going to go back down to $6,000 and never come back from those bear markets.”
As pointed out by a Fast Money panelist, the cryptocurrency market is often subject to tri-yearly cycles with Bitcoin seeing declines of up to 90% before establishing new all-time highs. Taking these cycles into account, the panelist went on to query Lee on whether he sees 2018’s drawback as out of the ordinary in any matter. Responding as any Bitcoin bull would, Fundstrat’s Head of Research stated:
“I do think its in-line with previous sort-of bear retracements, Bitcoin is just much bigger now, so it is much more dependent on new fiat inflows… We have to think about how is someone either in Asia – because that’s where a lot of the new money comes from – or who’s a traditional investor going to feel willing to buy Bitcoin. I think that these announcements that we are seeing are actually positive, but in some ways, Bitcoin is a show-me token.”
Closing off his segment on the show, Tom Lee added that the cryptocurrency market is still in its early stages, likening this nascent industry to the internet in 1994. If cryptocurrencies reach internet-levels of adoption, as Lee fully expects, cryptocurrency wallets could be used by up to four billion people as this technology hits the mainstream.
Oddly enough, Lee made no mention of his controversial $25,000 price prediction during this Fast Money episode, so it remains to be seen if this prediction is still on his radar.
More information: https://www.aktienboard.com/nl/bitcoin-robot/bitcoin-trader/
Bitcoin Hash Rate alcanza 102 quintillones en el hito histórico de la red
Bitcoin’s (BTC) network hash rate has passed a record 102 quintillion hashes for the first time in history in a historic milestone for the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin adds another zero to hash rate
As data from monitoring resource Blockchain confirmed on Sept. 18, hash rate, ultimately a function of how secure the Bitcoin network is, has reached a high of 102.8 quintillion hashes.
Bitcoin network hash rate. Source: Blockchain
The achievement follows a string of records for the metric this year, Cointelegraph reporting on various stages of its expansion over the past few months.
Hash rate refers to the amount of computing power involved in processing Bitcoin transactions. The higher the number of hashes, the more implied competition there is among miners to obtain the block reward.
Since December 2018, the hash rate has progressed from its recent low of 31 quintillion hashes per second, equating to the progress of 230%.
Bitcoin proponents eye price implications
Current growth has excited commentators, despite coming in tandem with a moderate decline in Bitcoin price.
As many noted, new upward action for hash rate tends may hint at future price growth. Hash rate began growing in January after several months of decline, with price then following in April.
Commenting on the current rate of growth, Lightning Torch organizer Hodlonaut said the figures spoke to underlying confidence among miners.
“Last readjustment period (2016 blocks, or around 2 weeks) increased 10.38%. We are about half way through the current readjustment period, and on track for another 11.85% increase,” he forecast.
Others have already given more bullish predictions. Max Keiser, a firm believer in Bitcoin’s prowess over altcoins, has frequently doubled down on his depiction of giant surges in both hash rate and price in the near future.
Bitcoin needs to be ‘better regulated’ before it is traded on major exchanges
Speaking at a conference today hosted by CNBC and Institutional Investor, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton said that bitcoin would need better regulation before being listed for trading on major traditional exchanges like NYSE or Nasdaq.
“If [investors] think there’s the same rigor around that price discovery as there is on the Nasdaq or New York Stock Exchange … they are sorely mistaken,” said Clayton. “We have to get to a place where we can be confident that trading is better regulated.”
Clayton’s comments come a few days after VanEck and SolidX’s decision to withdraw their bitcoin ETF proposal. Earlier this month, Clayton also said that while “progress is being made” on the bitcoin ETF, bitcoin businesses still need to address some of the SEC’s lingering concerns, citing crypto custody and the threat of price manipulation on unregulated exchanges.
Bitcoin (BTC) Crashes Below $10,000 Days Ahead Of Bakkt Futures Launch
Bitcoin (BTC) has declined well below $10,000 just before the most anticipated Bakkt futures launch. This has unnerved a lot of the bulls that were hoping for a rally to the moon by Monday. However, when everyone starts thinking the same way, it is best to think the opposite. Remember, Bakkt is “scheduled” to be launched on Sep 23, 2019.
It was “scheduled” to be launched on December 12, 2018 as well and if you had been hoping in November 2018 that $6,000 was going to hold just because Bakkt was going to be launched then you would have made quite a loss as the price nosedived to $3,130 from there in a matter of weeks. So, what does this recent crash mean in light of what has happened in the past?
The market makers were waiting for investors to enter margined longs. They gave them plenty of time to do that as the price consolidating and doing nothing much. So, they kind of forced traders into making the decision now instead of waiting to enter a trade after the breakout because these past few days traders have been made to be comfortable buying into sideways action in anticipation of a pump as we saw in the case of Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins. Most of them entered leveraged longs on BTC/USD in the hopes of profiting off a potential Bakkt rally. Those that had their stops just below the symmetrical triangle were shaken out but there are a lot more stops to be run just yet. The market makers might want to give investors another chance to long these dips so they can trap them again.
Bullish or bearish doesn’t matter from the market makers’ perspective. They are in the business of shaking out the traders hoping for easy money in this market. As I have said before this is not legal and if someone were to do this in the stock market they would find the SEC knocking on their door. However, anything is possible in this market in the absence of regulation. If we look at the 1H chart for Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), we can see that it broke out of a falling wedge and is now primed for further upside.
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) rises when either Bitcoin (BTC) is planning on outpacing the market at a certain point or we are primed for further downside and Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to hold its ground better than other coins. In both cases, this rising dominance in Bitcoin (BTC) does not bode well for the altcoin market which has yet to experience serious pain. There are a lot of useless projects in the altcoin market and it is only a matter of time before we see a strong downtrend that shakes out most of such projects. The fact that Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) just broke out of a falling wedge and has now begun an uptrend is a testament to the fact that recent hopes of an altcoin season were just orchestrated attempts by the big players to lure retail investors into buying their altcoin bags before the next crash.