The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
Panic has set in the cryptocurrency markets as investors dump their holdings at every opportune moment, fearing even larger losses. Usually, such selling sprees end with a bottom formation. The current sentiment in the crypto space is exactly the opposite to what it was in December 2017.
At the peak of the prices, the belief was that the digital currencies will not fall and even if they do, they will bounce back sharply. Thus, the only logical thing to do was to buy them at the prevailing price or miss the boat. Experts from the crypto industry also fuelled the expectations with their outlandish targets.
Fast forward to today. Most newbie traders who dreamt of big riches in crypto are instead left with huge losses. A return to the all-time highs is a goal that has almost been forgotten.
Many don’t even believe that cryptos can stage a decent pullback. At this point, crypto naysayers are entering to add more fear by forecasting a deeper fall, or worse, a complete collapse in digital currencies.
We did not agree with the prevailing sentiment of traders in December of last year, but were proven correct. Now we believe that the time has come again to move in the opposite direction from that of most traders.
Can we be proven wrong? That is definitely a possibility. Therefore, whenever we advise a long position, we also suggest a stop loss to help protect the capital. We don’t sit and dwell on it whenever our analysis is proven wrong. As traders, we watch the charts, form a new opinion and take the next trade when we find a reliable setup.
So, what do we see on the charts today?
Bitcoin plunged below the $5,910.65 mark on August 14, but only by a small margin. It found support at $5,900.06. Repeated attempts by the bears to break the $5,900 level have failed. This shows that lower levels are attracting buyers, which is a bullish sign.
Currently, the bulls are attempting a pullback that is likely to face resistance in the zone of $6527.77 — $6617.5. After this zone is crossed, the bears might try to defend the downtrend line and the moving averages but we believe that the risk to reward ratio favors entering long positions again.
Why do we keep looking to buy when everyone else is bearish?
The bears have tried four times to break the $6,000 line since February of this year, but have so far failed. The price keeps bouncing off this support. This shows that the buyers are accumulating around the $6,000 mark.
Once the bulls break out of the downtrend line of the descending triangle and the 50-day SMA, it is likely to attract short covering by the bears, which can propel the prices to $8,500 and higher.
Therefore, we suggest entering long positions if the BTC/USD pair sustains above $6,650 for four hours. The stop loss can be kept just below $5,900. Please use 50 percent of the usual allocation size for this trade. We shall add the remaining positions once the pair scales above the 50-day SMA.
The risk to reward ratio is attractive, hence we suggest buying the bounce off the $6,000 level. If our assumption is wrong, the stops will be hit and the positions will be closed with a business loss.
After outperforming the market for the past few months, Ethereum has been hit hard by the bears in the past several days. The selling intensified after the chart broke below the critical support of $400 on August 7.
On August 14, the ETH/USD pair plummeted below the key support of $280 and fell to an intraday low of $249.93.
Currently, the bulls are staging a smart recovery, which is likely to face stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA and at $358. On the downside, if the bears break the $249.93 line, the cryptocurrency can drop to the next support at $200. Although the RSI is oversold, we shall wait for the selling to end before attempting a buy.
Ripple has been a huge underperformer among the larger cryptocurrencies as it has lost more than 90 percent of its value from its intraday high of $3.317, reached on January 4 of this year.
We had been projecting a target of $0.24001 on the XRP/USD pair for the past few days and on August 14 it reached an intraday low of $0.24508.
The RSI is oversold, which points to a probable pullback. The first resistance on the upside will be the 20-day EMA.
We suggest traders wait for the prices to stabilize and turn upwards before attempting a buy.
Bitcoin Cash could not escape the selling pressure on August 13 and it broke below the support of $537.8221 for the first time since November 8 of last year. On August 14, the intraday fall extended to $473.9060.
The pullback from the lows is currently facing resistance at $537.8221. The previous strong support will now act as a resistance. If the BCH/USD pair breaks below $473.9060, it can decline to the next support at $400.
On the other hand, if the bulls quickly push the prices above $538, it will be an indication that the markets have rejected the lower levels and a pullback to the 20-day EMA is probable. We shall wait for a new buy setup to form before suggesting any long positions.
EOS found support close to the critical line at $3.8723 on August 13, when it dropped to an intraday low of $4.1778. The next support below $3.8723 is $3.
The EOS/USD pair has been in such a firm bear grip that the bulls have not been able to break out of the 50-day SMA since June 10. Therefore, if the price sustains above the 50-day SMA for three days, it will indicate a change in trend.
The RSI is deeply oversold, which increases the probability of a pullback. The 20-day EMA will offer a stiff resistance on any bounce from the current levels.
We shall wait for a new buy setup to form before suggesting a long position.
Even in this carnage, Stellar has held the critical support at $0.184. This is a positive sign, which shows a demand at these levels.
The XLM/USD pair has been trading inside the range of $0.184 — $0.25 since August 5. A break out of this range is likely to propel the prices towards the downtrend line at $0.32.
Therefore, we recommend a long position on the pair if the bulls sustain above $0.25 for four hours. The stop loss for the trade can be kept around the $0.18 mark.
As the sentiment is bearish, we suggest initiating the position with only about 50 percent of the usual allocation. Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears break below $0.18.
We anticipated the bulls to defend the support zone of $48 — $52 and that is what had happened. On August 14, Litecoin declined to an intraday low of $49.466, where buying emerged.
The LTC/USD pair has been in the oversold zone since August 7, but the bulls have not been able to force a meaningful pullback. This shows sustained selling by the bears.
Currently, the bulls are attempting a pullback, which will face resistance at the 20-day EMA. We shall wait for the buyers to return and a bottom to form before proposing a trade on the pair.
Cardano broke below the support of $0.111843 on August 13 and plunged to an intraday low of $0.083192, which is just above our anticipated support level of $0.078215.
The failure of the bulls to defend the $0.13 and $0.111843 lines shows that the sellers have an upper hand. The negative momentum will show signs of waning if the bulls sustain above the downtrend line 2.
The ADA/USD pair will indicate a change in trend if it sustains above $0.13. We might suggest a long position when it’s above $0.15.
The incessant selling dragged Monero to an intraday low of $76.074 on August 14, which is just below our predicted support zone of $78 — $82. If the bears sustain below $76, the next support is way lower at $60.
Currently, the bulls are attempting a pullback, which is likely to face resistance close to the $100 level. The 20-day EMA is also located just above this level at $106.69.
The XMR/USD pair is in a clear downtrend. We shall wait for that to change before recommending any long positions on it.
We expected the bulls to defend the psychological level of $0.5, but the selling dragged IOTA to an intraday low of $0.4037, close to our lower target of $0.38. If the $0.38 level breaks, the fall can extend to $0.3350.
The IOTA/USD pair is in a downtrend but the RSI has entered deep into the oversold territory. Both moving averages are sloping down and the 20-day EMA will act as a stiff resistance on any pullback.
We don’t suggest buying on the first pullback from the lows. It’s better to wait for the pair to confirm a bottom before risking a buy.
BTC, ETH, and XRP Price Analysis: Top Cryptocurrencies Are Stuck Trading In A Horizontal Range
1 BTC/USD =$9.599,25 change ~ 1.01%
Coin Market Cap$171.5 Billion
24 Hour Volume$4.53 Billion
24 Hour VWAP$9.56 K
24 Hour Change$ 96.2000
Last week the price of Bitcoin was $10641.1 at its highest point on Monday. From there we’ve seen the price decreasing until Wednesday when the price started recovering and came to $10168 which was again retested on Saturday but since the price failed to exceed the prior high another shart downfall has been seen to $9367 on the same day.
Since then the price has been hovering in a horizontal range between the Saturday’s low and $9580 but the price spiked to the downside and retested the prior low on a quick spike after which a retest of the 0 Fib level has been made. This horizontal range could be interpreted as a consolidative range after the price fell below the 0 Fib level and is likely a sign of indecision.
On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Bitcoin attempted to start moving to the upside after it fell below the 0 Fib level but failed to do so and instead formed a three-wave upward correction after which another downside move has been seen. This could mean that the price is headed for another downside move before the completion of the downtrend which started on the 20th of July when the price of Bitcoin was $10970 above the 0.236 Fib level.
If we see another downside move I wouldn’t believe that it’s going below the still unconfirmed descending trendline and the intersection with the horizontal level at $8506 but its equally possible that the price would be headed upward from here as this downtrend from the 20th of July could be the 2nd wave out of the next structure to the upside as the WXY correction ended.
The price of Bitcoin most likely ended its 5th wave to the upside of the Minor degree on the yearly high which is why we are seeing a corrective downside move as the first wave out of the same degree starting downtrend but this could also be a prolongation of the corrective decrease after the uptrend continues.
Considering that the price of Bitcoin has been in an upward trajectory since 15th of December we are most likely seeing the first formation in the entering bearish period so in either way even if the price is to increase from here I would be expecting further decrease below $8500 in the upcoming period.
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1 ETH/USD =$210,34 change ~ -0.24%
Coin Market Cap$22.6 Billion
24 Hour Volume$1.56 Billion
24 Hour VWAP$210
24 Hour Change$ -0.5000
From last week’s high at $226.84 the price of Ethereum has decreased by 8.92% as it came down to $206 level around which it is currently being traded.
On the hourly chart, you can see that the last week’s high was an interaction with the 0.382 Fib level at the intersection with the ascending trendline of a higher degree which served as a significant resistance point.
As a rejection occurred we have seen the price going to the prior low level which was retested on a quick spike to the downside yesterday but the price
Prior to this horizontal range, we’ve seen the price of Ethereum decreasing impulsively which is why this range is most likely a corrective upward correction that is going to end on the 3rd wave. This is why I would be expecting another retest of the 0.382 FIb level before another downside move which would be the 5th wave out of the five-wave move from the yearly high at $362.
This five-wave move to the downside could be the first wave out of the starting downtrend as the 5th wave from the upward impulse wave ended on the yearly high and is why I would be expecting the price of Ethereum below $187 in the upcoming period.
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1 XRP/USD =$0,319 change ~ 2.81%
Coin Market Cap$13.75 Billion
24 Hour Volume$199.72 Million
24 Hour VWAP$0
24 Hour Change$ 0.0087
The price of Ripple has been following the chart pattern of Bitcoin as like in the case of Bitcoin we’ve seen a horizontal range after an attempt for a recovery ended as a failure with the price decreasing over the weekend. From last weeks high at $0.3303 we have seen a decrease to $0.305 at its lowest point after which recovery to the 0.236 Fib level occurred but the price got rejected by the resistance found there and again fell to the mentioned low level.
On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Ripple is stuck in a horizontal range between the 0.236 Fib level and the $0.305 low which is most likely a consolidative range showing indecision as the price is stuck between significant horizontal support/resistance points. As we have seen an increase from the 0.29405 horizontal level to the 0.382 Fib level and a decrease after we are most likely seeing a higher degree three-wave correction to the upside after the prior downfall ended.
This is why I would be expecting another increase from here to the 0.382 Fib level as another retest of the significant resistance point before another downside move to the lower horizontal support level. The likelihood of a breakout from both sides is equal at this point which is why I don’t believe that we are to see a decisive move soon, instead, more likely we are going to see further sideways movement in the upcoming period.
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The cryptocurrency market is hovering around the same levels from yesterday and is stuck in a horizontal range. This is most likely a short consolidation after another attempt for a starting recovery which would fail and cause another downfall.
This expected downfall would be the 5th wave from the first impulse wave of the starting downtrend as we’ve most likely seen the end of the bullish period.
Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), And Ripple (XRP) Analysis: Market Recovers After Overnight Drop
From last Tuesday when the price of Bitcoin came down to $9833 at its lowest point we have seen an increase of 30% measured to the highest point the price has been today which is at $12814. The price is currently being traded at $12348 and even spiked further down to $12119 at its lowest point today.
Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price of Bitcoin came up above the ascending trendline zone which served as resistance on the way up and has retested it on today’s spike to the downside and found support there which indicates that the trendline zone is still serving as a significant pivot point. The price came down last Tuesday in a three-wave manner after which a five-wave increase has been seen forming a lower high with the price going below the ascending range and the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
As the price found support around the descending resistance level it started increasing again. I believed that the
Another possibility would be that the ABC to the downside which ended last Tuesday was the end of the correction with the 30% increase seen after being the start of the next impulsive move to the upside, but I don’t believe that’s likely because according to my count the 5th wave of the Minor count ended on the yearly high at $13740.
As the price is in an upward trajectory in the upcoming period I would be expecting an interaction with the 0.618 Fib level or a retest of the yearly high before another downfall potentially below the 0.382 Fib or slightly above it, to around the vicinity of the last Tuesday’s low.
Bitcoin Price Could Hit $25,000 Before 2020, Says Bullish Crypto Analyst
The millionaire cryptocurrency analyst and trader told The Independent that more investors are viewing bitcoin as a safe-haven asset in the wake of growing macroeconomic tensions. Isaacs referred to the ongoing trade conflicts between the U.S. and China that last month sent the global equity market on a downward trend. The negative sentiment prompted investors to hedge in cryptocurrencies. He stated:
“I believe bitcoin has the potential to hit $25,000 by the end of 2019 or early 2020. There are multiple drivers behind the recent resurgence. There are geopolitical, technological, and regulatory drivers. The net effect of the trade war between the U.S. and China has led to a sudden interest in bitcoin as a hedge on investments.”
The statement followed bitcoin’s dramatic correction in the recent market cycle. The cryptocurrency dropped by more than 18% after establishing its 2019 high near $9,090 on San Francisco-based exchange, Coinbase. Nevertheless, bitco
Isaacs noted that the bitcoin adoption rate is heading in the direction of the cryptocurrency’s price. He cited significant organization like Amazon, Starbucks, Whole Foods, and Microsoft that recently started accepting BTC payments, indicating that the cryptocurrency ecosystem has turned more positive since crashing more than 85% in 2018.
THE BEARISH TAKE ON BITCOIN
Meanwhile, other notably analysts believe bitcoin is due for a considerable drop. Willy Woo, the founder of Woobull.com, said the cryptocurrency has become overvalued following the latest upside movements. The analyst put bitcoin against his popular NVT metric, which represents the ratio of bitcoin’s market capitalization to the volume transmitted by its blockchain. He noted a considerable divergence between the current bitcoin price and the NVT Ratio (explained here), which is bearish:
Josh Rager, another prominent analyst, provided a less harsh bitcoin price outlook, stating that a sharp downside correction would attract more investors to purchase it at cheaper rates. He noted that the BTC-to-dollar exchange rate dropped by at least 30% after every significant bullish move on a broader timeframe, as shown in the graph below.
If Rager is correct, BTC could go as low as $6,000 before attempting a sharp pullback to reclaim the session top of $9,090.