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Why Some Bulls Expect Bitcoin to Fall Below $5,000 Prior to Big Rally

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Today, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has reaffirmed his $30,000 Bitcoin price target by December. But, other permabulls are not as optimistic as Lee about the short-term trend of Bitcoin.

In May, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes stated that he would like to see the BTC price fall to the $5,000 region before recovering and initiating a 2017-esqe rally to ensure that the market does not expose itself to the creation of a minor bubble.

This week, ShapeShift CEO Erik Voorhees and cryptocurrency investor Anthony Pompliano, better known as Pomp, echoed the sentiment of Hayes, stating that the bear market of Bitcoin is not over just yet.

$5,000 Before $10,000

bitcoin price
BTC/USD | Bitfinex

On CNBC Crypto Trader, hosted by Ran Neuner, Voorhees, the founder and CEO of major digital asset trading platform ShapeShift, said:

“I don’t expect it (bear market) to end soon, although I do think that the rate of collapse has slowed considerably. Generally in these bubbles, after you go through several months of a downtrend you hang out in a range for a while… But I think we are done with a majority of the collapse.”

Voorhees offered a relatively enthusiastic viewpoint on the trend of the crypto market, noting that while the bear market of Bitcoin has evidently not ended, the worst part of the correction has slowed down.

Last week, researchers at Diar reported that the rate of Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to a 14-month low, as BTC  demonstrated stability in the mid-$6,000 range since August 6, for around three weeks.

As seen in previous 80 percent corrections and rallies in 2012, 2014, and 2017, Bitcoin has traditionally required a period of stability before initiating a large rally on the upside.

Hence, the BTC price demonstrating stability in the range of $6,300 to $6,700 over the past three weeks is positive, but the dominant cryptocurrency will need to show months of stability before establishing a strong foundation to support its next big rally.

However, Pomp has not been as optimistic as Voorhees and Hayes, as he wrote in his latest newsletter that he sees the price of BTC falling to the $3,000 region before recovering to the $10,000 resistance level.

“The final data outputs left me with a few uncomfortable conclusions. The most notable one is that we are likely to see Bitcoin near $3,000 before we see Bitcoin at $10,000 again. If this is true, that means we still have ~50 percent price decrease to go. Things may get really, really ugly if this happens,” Pomp noted.

What Happens to Bitcoin in December?

Some analysts see Bitcoin falling to $5,000, $4,000, and even $3,000 before recovering. But, most of the analysts share the sentiment that Bitcoin will rebound to major resistance levels in the $10,000 to $15,000 range by the end of December.

Predictions of most experts and analysts in the cryptocurrency space change on a regular basis, as it is difficult to speculate the exact region BTC will fall to and recover from. It is important for investors to look at the mid-term trend of Bitcoin, analyzing actual metrics like volume and market demand to foresee the future trend of Bitcoin.

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Crypto Analyst Says: Bitcoin Price to Head for $18,000 with ‘Halving Pre-Pump’ in Three Months

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With Bitcoin and the crypto market pumping again and the Bitcoin halving drawing closer, more crypto analysts and traders are expecting BTC to start pumping hard soon. Among the figures that have been voiced so far are $11,000 and $18,000 per Bitcoin if the price begins to accelerate in April, prior to the halving.

‘The target is $18,000’

Analyst @CryptoMichNL believes that the current situation in the cryptomarket has started resembling January 2016, which he has recently been referring to often – the time when the market went into tremendous volatility. This should last for about three months now, he states, and then he expects Bitcoin to start pumping, powered by the approaching halving in May.

The expert believes the price target to be $18,000. The all-time high Bitcoin reached in 2017 was $19,772 – on December 17.

‘Bitcoin is about to rip to $11k’

Investor and trader ‘D.I.Y Investing’ suggests there is a Parabolic SAR on the chart. He expects Bitcoin to surge to $11,000.

The trader also points out that the Bitcoin dominance on the market is getting higher. ‘D.I.Y Investing’ concludes that it will be altcoins that may lead the next rally.

BTC 2

Image via Twitter

‘The crypto market is very sentiment driven’

Crypto expert and columnist Joseph Young believes that pretty much everything on the crypto market depends on investor sentiment. Young tweets that this makes it unpredictable and that a price rise or a price fall may suddenly increase just when you expect it the least.

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The upcoming halving could push Bitcoin to new all-time highs

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Bitcoin is only 117 days away from a block rewards reduction event that affects the number of tokens that can be generated every 10 minutes. Based on historical data, this event tends to serve as a catalyst that propels the flagship cryptocurrency into new all-time highs.

The Halving Event

Bitcoin goes through a fixed process known as the halving every time 210,000 BTC blocks are mined. This is considered the core economic model in BTC’s protocol that guarantees that coins are issued at a steady pace. The halving takes place, approximately, every four years. It cuts in half the rewards miners get for mining a block, consequently, decreasing the rate of issuance.

Around May 12, 2020, at exactly block 630,000, miners who are currently being awarded 12.5 new BTC for every block they solve will only be rewarded with 6.25 BTC per block. The inflation rate of this cryptocurrency will also be impacted for an extended period of time as the reduction in future supply increases.

The series of block rewards reduction events are scheduled to occur until the total supply of 21 million BTC are mined. These events could prolong until 2140 when the block reward would drop below 1 satoshi, assuming that miners will be around in the next 120 years.

Bitcoin's Supply Curve
Bitcoin’s Supply Curve By Messari

Previous Block Rewards Reduction Events

To date, there have only been two halving events since Bitcoin was launched on Jan. 3, 2009. These events have proven to be an important catalyst that pushes the price of this crypto up before and after they take place. BTC’s disinflationary monetary policy has allowed its value to enhance significantly as it becomes more scarce.

The 2012 Halving

On Nov. 28, 2012, Bitcoin went through its first halving, at a block height of 210,000. During that time, the block rewards provided to miners dropped from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC. Such a significant supply reduction had a great impact on the price of the pioneer cryptocurrency, which was perceived in anticipation of the event and after it occurred.

After reaching a market bottom of $2 on Nov. 19, 2011, Bitcoin entered a year-long bull rally. This cryptocurrency saw its price appreciate by nearly 500% in anticipation of the first halving. By the time the event concluded on Nov. 28, 2012, BTC was trading around $12. From that point, Bitcoin skyrocketed over 97x peaking at an all-time high of $1,177 on Nov. 30, 2013.

Bitcoin's price action before and after its first halving
BTC/USD by TradingView

The 2016 Halving

The second block rewards reduction event took place on July 9, 2016, at a block height of 420,000. At the time, the 25 BTC mining reward halved to 12.5 BTC per block. Like the first halving, this one also had serious implications on the price of Bitcoin.

On Jan. 14, 2015, Bitcoin hit a market bottom at a price of $164 following the 2014 bear market. Since then, BTC surged by nearly 300 percent to a high of $650 on the

day the halving was set to occur. After the pioneer cryptocurrency went through its second halving on July 9, 2016, it entered a parabolic advance that saw its price increase by 29x. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $19,765 on Dec. 17, 2017.

Bitcoin's price action before and after its second halving
BTC/USD by TradingView

History Repeats Itself

The previous halvings have demonstrated to be a significant pivotal point in Bitcoin’s trend. They tend to propel the price of the flagship cryptocurrency into new all-time highs. Therefore, the upcoming block rewards reduction event could have similar implications.

Thus far, it seems like Bitcoin reached a market bottom on Dec. 15, 2018, at a price of $3,150. Since then, this cryptocurrency is up over 180 percent and is currently trading around $8,700. Now, investors appear to anticipate higher prices as the date approaches.

Bitcoin's price action before its third havling
BTC/USD by TradingView

The Wisdom of the Crowd

Alex Kruger recently ran a poll on Twitter that involved over 4,000 participants. Kruger asked his followers what they thought will be the high of the year for Bitcoin.

The results show that 47 percent of the respondents believe that BTC would trade above $20,000 sometime this year. Around 28 percent are convinced that this crypto would peak between $14,000 and $19,999. Meanwhile, the remaining 25 percent stated that it will trade at $13,999 or lower.

The survey reveals that nearly 75 percent of the participants think that Bitcoin will double in price this year.

Along the same lines, some of the most prominent technical analysts in the crypto community affirm that Bitcoin entered a new bull market last week. The break of the $8,500 resistance level, was seen as a make-or-break point that could have set out the stage for a bull run. According to Mohit Sorout, a partner at Bitazu Capital, a new uptrend is emerging.

However, there are other analysts who disagree with the bullish outlook. Chris Slaughter, the founder and CEO of LVL, for instance, has been studying a fractal since Dec. 27, 2019, that has proven to be correct. This pattern anticipated the recent rally that took Bitcoin above $8,500. Now, Slaughter estimates a downturn in the market that could push BTC to “new lows.”

The wisdom of the crowd is rarely correct, especially in the cryptocurrency market. Under this premise, since 75 percent of the market is bullish, the probabilities for the bearish outlook increase.

The different perspectives about Bitcoin’s future have the overall market sentiment in a “neutral” stage, according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. It remains to be seen whether history will repeat itself and the upcoming halving will trigger an inflow of capital in the market that allows BTC to reach new all-time highs.

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This Single Factor Suggests Bitcoin’s 2020 Rally is Far From Over

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Bitcoin has been holding steady around the $8,700 region after facing an influx of selling pressure that forced it to lose its previously held position within the $8,800 region. Data suggests that this selling pressure was quite massive, despite BTC only seeing slight losses.

Bull’s ability to absorb the majority of this selling pressure may be a sign that points to the possibility that BTC will soon see a continuation of the bullish uptrend it has been caught within throughout the past couple of weeks.

Bitcoin Declines Towards $8,700 as Selling Pressure Ramps Up

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down just over 1% at its current price of $8,700, which marks a slight decline from its daily highs of over $8,800.

Although BTC has only seen a slight downwards movement following its recent period of sideways trading around $8,800, it is important to note that some analysts have claimed that the crypto’s inability to continue extending its upwards momentum is a sign of technical weakness.

Bitcoin has been able to post a slight bounce from its daily lows of $8,600, and it currently appears that bulls and bears remain at an impasse.

One factor surrounding the cryptocurrency’s recent price action that should be carefully considered is the fact that the selling pressure has been incredibly aggressive, despite there not being any type of major price drop.

Cantering Clark, a popular crypto analyst on

Twitter, spoke about this in a recent tweet, noting that it is too early to say that BTC is in a correction, implying that it could soon see further momentum.

“ONE THING THAT’S WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO IS HOW AGGRESSIVE THESE LOWS WERE SOLD, YET THE LOW NEVER GAVE WAY. BULLISH CONTINUATION IS NEVER CLEAN. I WOULDN’T CALL A CORRECTION JUST YET,” HE EXPLAINED.

Is BTC’s Stability a Bullish Sign? This Analyst Thinks So

Although Clark doesn’t explicitly conclude that Bitcoin’s stability in the face of aggressive selling pressure is bullish, Josh Rager – another prominent cryptocurrency analyst – explained that he believes this reaction is a bullish sign for what’s to come next.“WHEN PRICE HOLDS DURING AGGRESSIVE SELLING… IT’S TYPICALLY A BULLISH SIGN FOR BTC,” HE EXPLAINED WHILE REFERENCING CANTERING CLARK’S ANALYSIS.

If BTC is able to find continued support around $8,600 and buyers continue absorbing the significant selling pressure it is currently facing, the crypto could soon see an extension of the massive upwards momentum it has found over the past two weeks.



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