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The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
Retail investors tend to run for cover when the market falls, whereas the professionals get their buy list ready to take advantage of the bargain prices. Though the trading volumes have been falling in the past few months, the merger and acquisition (M&A) activity is on an upswing.
Recently, Goldman Sachs and Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, invested $15 million in the crypto custody service BitGo. Data from PitchBook, compiled by JMP Securities, shows that there are likely to be 145 crypto- and blockchain-related deals by the end of this year, well above the previous year’s count of 47.
Price-wise, some analysts believe that the calm in the markets is about to end. They expect Bitcoin to take a decisive direction within the next 1–2 weeks. Do the charts point to a potential breakout or a breakdown? Let’s find out.
Bitcoin has failed to break out of the overhead resistance at $6,831.99, resulting in a move down. Currently, the price is at the moving averages, which might act as a support. However, if the bears break this level, the digital currency can slide to the next lower support at $6,250.
A lack of follow-up buying after the surge on Oct. 15 is a bearish sign. It shows that the market participants are in a hurry to close their positions during every small rally. Both moving averages are flat and the RSI is close to the midpoint. This points to a consolidation in the near-term.
The BTC/USD pair can remain range bound between $5,900–$6,832 for the next few days. A breakout or breakdown of this range will start the next directional move.
On the upside, the bulls should watch the levels of $7,400 and $8,400. On the downside, a break of $5,900 will trigger panic selling among the participants, plunging the price to $5,450, and further to $5,000 in a short time.
We suggest traders close their long positions if the pair breaks the support at $5,900.
Ethereum remains weak. It might retest the bottom of the range of $192.5–$249.93. If the bears succeed in breaking down of the range, a retest of a Sept. 12 low of $167.32 is probable.
Any attempt to pull back will face a stiff resistance at the moving averages and above that at $249.93. The ETH/USD pair will show signs of strength if it sustains above the range.
The traders should wait for a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $250 to initiate any long positions. Until then, it is best to remain on the sidelines.
Ripple has marginally dipped below the 20-day EMA, which shows profit booking at higher levels. Both moving averages remain flat and the RSI is close to the neutral territory. This points to a consolidation in the short-term.
The XRP/USD pair will become negative on a breakdown of the support at $0.37185. On the upside, it has a slew of resistances at $0.5, $0.55 and $0.625. It will resume its uptrend if it sustains above $0.625. We don’t find any reliable buy setups at the current levels; hence, we are not suggesting any trades on the pair.
A lack of buying has pushed Bitcoin Cash to the support line of the symmetrical triangle. A breakdown of the triangle will resume the downtrend and sink prices to $300 with a minor support at the Sept. 11 intraday low of $408.0182. Therefore, traders should protect their long positions with the stops at $400.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn down after remaining flat for the past few days. The RSI is also in the negative territory. This shows sellers have the upper hand. The BCH/USD pair will show signs of strength if the bulls break out of the triangle.
There is nothing much happening in EOS as it continues to trade close to the moving averages. It has been trading inside the range $4.4930–$6.8299 for the past two months. The flat moving averages and the RSI in the neutral territory suggest equilibrium between the buyers and the sellers.
The buyers will have an upper hand if they succeed in pushing the EOS/USD pair above the overhead resistance of $6.8299. A break down of the support zone at $3.8723–$4.49 will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears. Therefore, the traders holding long positions should keep a stop loss of $4.9.
Stellar broke out of the overhead resistance at $0.24987525 on Oct. 17 and 18. However, on both occasions, the bulls could not sustain the higher levels.
We remain positive on the XLM/USD pair because it continues to trade above both moving averages, which are starting to turn up. If the bulls break out and close above the overhead resistance, it will invalidate the bearish descending triangle, which is a bullish sign. Therefore, we retain our buy suggested in the previous analysis.
On the downside, the digital currency will find buying support at the moving averages. Any break of this support can retest the zone between $0.204 and $0.2148.
Litecoin continues to trade below both moving averages, which is a negative sign. A break below $52 can result in a drop to the bottom of the range at $49.466. This will be the fourth visit to the bottom of the $49.466–$69.279 range since Aug. 14.
If the bears break down and close below the range, a fall to the next lower support of $40 is probable.
The LTC/USD pair will signal a change in trend only after a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above the range. We believe the traders should wait for a break out of the range before initiating any long positions in it.
Cardano turned down from the 50-day SMA on Oct. 17. It is likely to find some support at $0.069, below which it can drop to the critical support at $0.060105.
Both moving averages are flat and the RSI is inching towards the neutral territory. This shows a balance between both the buyers and the sellers.
The ADA/USD pair will pick up momentum if it scales above the overhead resistance at $0.094256 and $0.111843. We don’t find any buy setups at the current levels; hence, we are not proposing any trades.
After failing to scale above the moving averages in the past few days, Monero has again dipped below the support of $107.8. It can now slide to the next support at $100, below which a drop to $81 is possible.
Both moving averages are flat and the RSI is in the negative territory. This shows the probability of a consolidation in the near-term.
The XMR/USD pair can move up to $128.65 if it scales above the moving averages. We shall wait for a new buy setup to form before suggesting any trades.
TRON has been holding above the 20-day EMA for the past four days, which is a positive sign. It will indicate a change in trend if the bulls break out and close (UTC time frame) above the overhead resistance at $0.02815521.
The traders can buy a close (UTC time frame) above $0.03 with a target objective of $0.41. The initial stop loss can be kept at $0.02, which can be raised later.
The TRX/USD pair will weaken and sink to $0.02 if it breaks below the moving averages. We don’t find any trade inside the $0.0183–$0.02815521 range.
BTC, ETH, and XRP Price Analysis: Top Cryptocurrencies Are Stuck Trading In A Horizontal Range
1 BTC/USD =$9.599,25 change ~ 1.01%
Coin Market Cap$171.5 Billion
24 Hour Volume$4.53 Billion
24 Hour VWAP$9.56 K
24 Hour Change$ 96.2000
Last week the price of Bitcoin was $10641.1 at its highest point on Monday. From there we’ve seen the price decreasing until Wednesday when the price started recovering and came to $10168 which was again retested on Saturday but since the price failed to exceed the prior high another shart downfall has been seen to $9367 on the same day.
Since then the price has been hovering in a horizontal range between the Saturday’s low and $9580 but the price spiked to the downside and retested the prior low on a quick spike after which a retest of the 0 Fib level has been made. This horizontal range could be interpreted as a consolidative range after the price fell below the 0 Fib level and is likely a sign of indecision.
On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Bitcoin attempted to start moving to the upside after it fell below the 0 Fib level but failed to do so and instead formed a three-wave upward correction after which another downside move has been seen. This could mean that the price is headed for another downside move before the completion of the downtrend which started on the 20th of July when the price of Bitcoin was $10970 above the 0.236 Fib level.
If we see another downside move I wouldn’t believe that it’s going below the still unconfirmed descending trendline and the intersection with the horizontal level at $8506 but its equally possible that the price would be headed upward from here as this downtrend from the 20th of July could be the 2nd wave out of the next structure to the upside as the WXY correction ended.
The price of Bitcoin most likely ended its 5th wave to the upside of the Minor degree on the yearly high which is why we are seeing a corrective downside move as the first wave out of the same degree starting downtrend but this could also be a prolongation of the corrective decrease after the uptrend continues.
Considering that the price of Bitcoin has been in an upward trajectory since 15th of December we are most likely seeing the first formation in the entering bearish period so in either way even if the price is to increase from here I would be expecting further decrease below $8500 in the upcoming period.
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1 ETH/USD =$210,34 change ~ -0.24%
Coin Market Cap$22.6 Billion
24 Hour Volume$1.56 Billion
24 Hour VWAP$210
24 Hour Change$ -0.5000
From last week’s high at $226.84 the price of Ethereum has decreased by 8.92% as it came down to $206 level around which it is currently being traded.
On the hourly chart, you can see that the last week’s high was an interaction with the 0.382 Fib level at the intersection with the ascending trendline of a higher degree which served as a significant resistance point.
As a rejection occurred we have seen the price going to the prior low level which was retested on a quick spike to the downside yesterday but the price came up above $206 level at the 0.5 Fib level.
Prior to this horizontal range, we’ve seen the price of Ethereum decreasing impulsively which is why this range is most likely a corrective upward correction that is going to end on the 3rd wave. This is why I would be expecting another retest of the 0.382 FIb level before another downside move which would be the 5th wave out of the five-wave move from the yearly high at $362.
This five-wave move to the downside could be the first wave out of the starting downtrend as the 5th wave from the upward impulse wave ended on the yearly high and is why I would be expecting the price of Ethereum below $187 in the upcoming period.
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1 XRP/USD =$0,319 change ~ 2.81%
Coin Market Cap$13.75 Billion
24 Hour Volume$199.72 Million
24 Hour VWAP$0
24 Hour Change$ 0.0087
The price of Ripple has been following the chart pattern of Bitcoin as like in the case of Bitcoin we’ve seen a horizontal range after an attempt for a recovery ended as a failure with the price decreasing over the weekend. From last weeks high at $0.3303 we have seen a decrease to $0.305 at its lowest point after which recovery to the 0.236 Fib level occurred but the price got rejected by the resistance found there and again fell to the mentioned low level.
On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Ripple is stuck in a horizontal range between the 0.236 Fib level and the $0.305 low which is most likely a consolidative range showing indecision as the price is stuck between significant horizontal support/resistance points. As we have seen an increase from the 0.29405 horizontal level to the 0.382 Fib level and a decrease after we are most likely seeing a higher degree three-wave correction to the upside after the prior downfall ended.
This is why I would be expecting another increase from here to the 0.382 Fib level as another retest of the significant resistance point before another downside move to the lower horizontal support level. The likelihood of a breakout from both sides is equal at this point which is why I don’t believe that we are to see a decisive move soon, instead, more likely we are going to see further sideways movement in the upcoming period.
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The cryptocurrency market is hovering around the same levels from yesterday and is stuck in a horizontal range. This is most likely a short consolidation after another attempt for a starting recovery which would fail and cause another downfall.
This expected downfall would be the 5th wave from the first impulse wave of the starting downtrend as we’ve most likely seen the end of the bullish period.
Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), And Ripple (XRP) Analysis: Market Recovers After Overnight Drop
From last Tuesday when the price of Bitcoin came down to $9833 at its lowest point we have seen an increase of 30% measured to the highest point the price has been today which is at $12814. The price is currently being traded at $12348 and even spiked further down to $12119 at its lowest point today.
Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price of Bitcoin came up above the ascending trendline zone which served as resistance on the way up and has retested it on today’s spike to the downside and found support there which indicates that the trendline zone is still serving as a significant pivot point. The price came down last Tuesday in a three-wave manner after which a five-wave increase has been seen forming a lower high with the price going below the ascending range and the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
As the price found support around the descending resistance level it started increasing again. I believed that the price is going to retest the upper ascending level before continuing to move to the downside again as the descending channel which started forming form 28th of June looked like it could be the 2nd wave out of the higher degree correction. But as the price increased with strong bullish momentum above the ascending range we could be seeing another ABC correction to the upside which would be the wave X out of the mentioned higher degree correction.
Another possibility would be that the ABC to the downside which ended last Tuesday was the end of the correction with the 30% increase seen after being the start of the next impulsive move to the upside, but I don’t believe that’s likely because according to my count the 5th wave of the Minor count ended on the yearly high at $13740.
As the price is in an upward trajectory in the upcoming period I would be expecting an interaction with the 0.618 Fib level or a retest of the yearly high before another downfall potentially below the 0.382 Fib or slightly above it, to around the vicinity of the last Tuesday’s low.
Bitcoin Price Could Hit $25,000 Before 2020, Says Bullish Crypto Analyst
The millionaire cryptocurrency analyst and trader told The Independent that more investors are viewing bitcoin as a safe-haven asset in the wake of growing macroeconomic tensions. Isaacs referred to the ongoing trade conflicts between the U.S. and China that last month sent the global equity market on a downward trend. The negative sentiment prompted investors to hedge in cryptocurrencies. He stated:
“I believe bitcoin has the potential to hit $25,000 by the end of 2019 or early 2020. There are multiple drivers behind the recent resurgence. There are geopolitical, technological, and regulatory drivers. The net effect of the trade war between the U.S. and China has led to a sudden interest in bitcoin as a hedge on investments.”
The statement followed bitcoin’s dramatic correction in the recent market cycle. The cryptocurrency dropped by more than 18% after establishing its 2019 high near $9,090 on San Francisco-based exchange, Coinbase. Nevertheless, bitcoin remains in a positive trendfrom a broader outlook, with its year-to-date performance showing as much as 146% gains.
Isaacs noted that the bitcoin adoption rate is heading in the direction of the cryptocurrency’s price. He cited significant organization like Amazon, Starbucks, Whole Foods, and Microsoft that recently started accepting BTC payments, indicating that the cryptocurrency ecosystem has turned more positive since crashing more than 85% in 2018.
THE BEARISH TAKE ON BITCOIN
Meanwhile, other notably analysts believe bitcoin is due for a considerable drop. Willy Woo, the founder of Woobull.com, said the cryptocurrency has become overvalued following the latest upside movements. The analyst put bitcoin against his popular NVT metric, which represents the ratio of bitcoin’s market capitalization to the volume transmitted by its blockchain. He noted a considerable divergence between the current bitcoin price and the NVT Ratio (explained here), which is bearish:
Josh Rager, another prominent analyst, provided a less harsh bitcoin price outlook, stating that a sharp downside correction would attract more investors to purchase it at cheaper rates. He noted that the BTC-to-dollar exchange rate dropped by at least 30% after every significant bullish move on a broader timeframe, as shown in the graph below.
If Rager is correct, BTC could go as low as $6,000 before attempting a sharp pullback to reclaim the session top of $9,090.