Bitcoin’s (BTC) reversal of the recent uptrend in prices is gathering pace and a drop into a bearish territory below $6,200 is now a possibility, technical charts indicate.
The leading cryptocurrency found acceptance below the lower edge of the rising channel yesterday, invalidating the bullish price action witnessed earlier this week. Essentially, the rally from the Oct. 31 low of $6,201 has ended at a high of $6,540 reached on Nov. 7.
At press time, BTC is trading at $6,350 on Coinbase, having clocked a five-day low of $6,335 soon before press time, following a sudden $100 drop.
The negative follow through to yesterday’s bullish channel breakdown is an indication that the bears are likely feeling emboldened, having pulled down prices by 2.9 percent from weekly highs.
As a result, the support of the trendline from Oct. 11 lows could be breached in the next few hours, opening the doors for a drop below the recent higher low of $6,200 (Oct. 31).
As can be seen above, the cryptocurrency has established a bearish lower highs and lower lows pattern, validating yesterday’s bullish channel breakdown.
Further, prices seem to have found acceptance under the crucial 200-hour exponential moving average (EMA) support and the major EMAS – 50, 100 and 200 – are beginning to roll over in favor of the bears.
In particular, the 50-hour looks set to cross the 100-hour EMA from above, bolstering the already bearish technical setup.
The drop below the immediate support of $6,330 (61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement), however, is likely to happen after a minor bout of consolidation, as the relative strength index (RSI) is reporting oversold conditions below 30.00.
Over on the daily chart, the symmetrical triangle breakout and a close above the critical 50-day EMA resistance witnessed earlier this week failed to produce significant price gains.
A failed breakout often ends up putting the bears back into the driver’s seat. Hence, a slide to $6,200 could be in the offing.
- A combination of the failed breakout on the daily chart and the bearish setup on the hourly chart indicates that cryptocurrency could soon drop below $6,274 (trendline connecting the Oct. 11 low and Oct. 31 low + 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement support) and drop below $6,200 (Oct. 31 low).
- A UTC close below $6,200 would invalidate the higher lows pattern seen on the daily chart, shifting risk in favor of a drop to the psychological support of $6,000.
- A bullish revival is seen only above the weekly high of $6,540.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
New Diar Study: “Ethereum Touched Record Highs for It’s On-Chain Transaction Volume During December 2018”
According to a report released by analytics firm Diar yesterday, the total number of Ethereum on-chain transactions hit an all-time high last month (December 2018). To be a bit more specific, we can see that the number of tx’s scaled up to a mammoth 115 million by the end of December 2018.
On the above-stated matter, the folks over at Dair were quoted as saying:
“In terms of transaction count on-chain, the ‘supercomputer’ has found stability since October bobbing between 16–17 million monthly transactions.”
More On The Matter
At press time, it is worth mentioning that the number of on-chain ETH transactionsassociated with the United States dollar is currently at a 22-month low. For those who may not be aware, the U.S. dollar’s on-chain value last year lay around the $815 million marks (a figure that was pegged to be $1.1 billion in 2017).
In its report, a researcher for Diar further noted:
“A 97 percent drop in on chain transaction value from the peak in January versus December 2018 was, by and large, the cause of an 80 percent drop in Ethereum’s price.”
Chart Showcasing the Monthly ETH On-Chain Transaction Volume (Source: Diar)
Other Information Worth Considering
- Processing charges associated with the ETH network are unlikely to interfere with the ecosystem’s growth because the network currently offers users with some of the lowest fees for on-chain transactions.
- The recent ETH Constantinople hard fork was delayed due to the discovery of a security vulnerability (that could have potentially allowed for the occurrence of a ‘reentrancy attack’).For those of our readers who may not be aware of what a reentrancy attack is, it is essentially a vulnerability that allows potential hackers to steal altcoins from a particular smart contract by repeatedly requesting funds from the network (all while feeding the system wrong information about the miscreant’s real ETH balance).
- Final Take
In rounding off this article, it is worth remembering that once the Constantinople upgrade goes live, it will be able to introduce cheaper gas costs (transaction fees) for some of the central operations (primarily storage) that can be carried out within the Ethereum network.
China’s Tsinghua University Partners with Ripple to Create Blockchain Research Scholarship Program
From the moment that Ripple first launched its platform, it has been looking for ways to spread cryptocurrency and their own products throughout the industry.
They have even managed to cross a major milestone as they established over 200 partnerships involving 40 separate countries. One of their most recent partnerships involves Tsinghua University, in an effort to launch a new scholarship program that will educate students in China.
While China has held a strict anti-crypto stance, the same has not been true of blockchain technology.
The program, which will be called the Blockchain Technology Research Scholarship program, is the combined venture of Ripple and the Tsinghua University Institute of Financial Technology (THUIFR). This university is one of the top schools in all of China, though THUIFTR was not started until 2017. It has been a collaborative effort between Institute for Interdisciplinary Information Sciences, PBC School of Finance, School of Software and Law School at Tsinghua University.
As students participate in the program, they will learn about the ins and outs of blockchain technology. On Twitter, THUIFR claims to have already hosted a seminar, titled “Innovation and Development of Digital Currency and its Regulatory Path.”
The partnership with Ripple will allow the program to launch in China, focusing clearly on the international regulations that govern the blockchain. Ivy Gao, the Director of International Cooperation and Development for THUIFR, said,
“Most importantly, I believe, this program will greatly help with their future research or career in the field of blockchain technology.”
The SVP of Global Operation at Ripple, Eric van Miltenburg, said,
Ripple has created an impressive reputation for itself as a major player in the fintech world. There are multiple banks using its xRapid product as their own blockchain solution, with more being added as the word spreads. However, it is perhaps the unique philosophy of Ripple’s platform and products that appeals to China, considering the substantial difference from that of Bitcoin’s ideology.
Their token has become the second-most valuable crypto asset, which could be due to the pattern of collaboration between financial institutions, governments, and universities.
According to the most recent data provided by CoinMarketCap, Ripple is presently being traded at $0.3175, ranking second by market capitalization.
Was November the Last Big Bitcoin Sell-Off? Trader Expects Slow Grind in 2019
By CCN.com: According to a trader and crypto technical analyst, November 2018 may have been the last sell-off of Bitcoin and a long consolidation period is expected throughout 2019.
Since experiencing a steep 13 percent drop on January 10 from $4,036 to $3,502, the Bitcoin price has been relatively stable in a tight range in mid-$3,000.
What Does Low Volatility Mean For Bitcoin?
While it seems as if the price of Bitcoin has been volatile throughout the past two weeks, the volatility of the dominant cryptocurrency occurred in a tight range between $3,500 to $4,000.
No major movements below or above key support and resistance levels were recorded, preventing any meaningful short-term price movement.
One trader said that if the trend of relatively low volatility in a tight low price range continues, the sideways action of Bitcoin will extend throughout the year, resulting in a long consolidation period.
“The longer this sideways action takes place the more I think the bottom is in. November was one of the worst monthly candles in history. It’s very possible that was the last of the major selling and now we’ll have a consolidation period that lasts most of 2019,” the trader said.
On Sunday, Bitcoin recorded a six percent drop against the U.S. dollar in a 24-hour period from $3,700 to $3,470. The asset has since recovered above the $3,500 mark and based on the performance of the asset in the last 48 hours, Bitcoin is expected to demonstrate stability throughout the week.
Hsaka, a cryptocurrency analyst, said:
Inside Bar; Low that was taken out (3480) holding as support; Continue leaning neutral here, can’t short HTF support, will wait for a break (even moreso when confluent with that CME gap).
A slow grind upwards in the first two quarters of 2019 could allow Bitcoin to establish a proper bottom and a mid-term trend reversal. If the price of asset recovers quickly in a short time period, as seen in the major sell-off of cryptocurrencies in November 2018, it can leave the asset class vulnerable to a large short-term correction.
With events that are considered as catalysts to fuel the momentum of Bitcoin in the first two quarters of this year including Bakkt and Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) far from being materialized due to the shutdown of the U.S. government, it has become more likely for the cryptocurrency market to demonstrate a low level of volatility in the upcoming months.
How About Alternative Crypto Assets?
Historically, alternative crypto assets, especially low market cap cryptocurrencies, have tended to perform strongly against Bitcoin when the asset is in a sideways market.
However, as seen in the performance of tokens and other major crypto assets in the past 48 hours, the stability in Bitcoin is unlikely to trigger short-term rallies for assets with lower volumes and valuations due to the current conditions of the market.
Some analysts believe November to have been the last sell-off for Bitcoin and expect a several-month-long consolidation period to occur.