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Thomas Lee’s Failed Bitcoin Predictions: Is It The Crypto Market Or The Expert Who Is Wrong?

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Failed Bitcoin Predictions Of Thomas Lee?

Thomas Lee, well-known bitcoin bull and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, predicted an ending year worth of $25,000 in May of this year. It’s already halfway through December and bitcoin is trading at less than $3,400 per- and yet he refuses to back down.

While boasting an extensive line of experience, working as the department head of research for the international advisory company, Fundstrat. Thomas Lee has, in the past, been quite bullish about the prospect of a broader Bitcoin rally; believing that BTC would rise up to a total value of $25,00 by the end of 2018.

While the year has continually, and chronically proven to work against Mr. Lee, he remains resolute that the darkest time is before the dawn before the dawn for the crypto – even as it slides below the $3,400 mark.

According to Lee, bitcoin’s fair value estimates between $13,800 and $14,800, when factoring in supply, usage, and amount of active wallet addresses.

“Fair value is significantly higher than the current price of Bitcoin. In fact, working backward, to solve for the current price of Bitcoin, this implies crypto wallet should tall to the 17 million from 50 million currency,” he said.

His explanation for this widely varying gap range from last year’s rally of value, to the “meltdown” of the macroeconomic climate and the initial coin offering sales from the treasury.

In his model (one built based on Metcalfe’s law), Bitcoin could raise in value to $150,000 if its wallets reached even 7% of Visa’s 4.5 billion account holders, but this wholly depends on Bitcoin’s acceptance as an asset (instead of an untrustworthy money) and enough user adoption.

Lee has declined to update his end of year forecast, stating, “We are tired of people asking us about target prices.” They say it’s hard to keep down a bull.

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Bakkt Futures to Launch in the Current Quarter

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Managing director and quant strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors Sam Doctor suggested in a Twitter post published on July 19 that Bakkt’s Bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts will launch this quarter.

According to the post, which includes a summary of Fundstrat’s takeaways from the Bakkt Digital Asset Summit held on July 18, the firm’s futures will launch in the current quarter. The launch is set to follow tests announced last month, which are scheduled to start next week. The firm believes that the launch will be a catalyst to accelerate entry of traditional institutional investors. The post notes:

“THERE APPEARS TO BE A CRITICAL MASS OF ADOPTERS READY TO COME ON BOARD ON DAY 1 OF THE BAKKT LAUNCH, WITH THE SALES TEAM GAINING TRACTION AMONG BROKERS, MARKET MAKERS, PROP TRADING DESKS AND LIQUIDITY PROVIDERS.”

During the aforementioned event, Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commissioner Dawn Stump apparently expressed that no current cryptocurrency could threaten financial stability and that the regulator sees a growing demand for Bitcoin futures from the public. Also during the summit, chief information officer at crypto investment firm Blocktower Ari Paul was reportedly confident that once a killer app or user interface makes cryptocurrency on-ramps safe, reliable and as easy to use as Paypal, retail adoption will be enormous.

According to the Fundstrat notes, Paul also said that institutions should not dismiss crypto assets, considering their low correlation with traditional assets and with compound annual growth rates of 200%-300%. He also said that inflation and confiscation resistance of cryptocurrencies are a key value proposition.

Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead, on the other hand, said that most tokens will fail and a handful of base protocols will survive, but with thousands of decentralized applications built on top of them. 

As Cointelegraph reported in May, the Intercontinental Exchange is reportedly taking steps to ensure approval from the United States CFTC for Bakkt.

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Bitcoin Price Slips 10% in 24 Hrs as Fed Raises Facebook Libra Concerns

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Bitcoin Price Slips 10% in 24 Hrs as Fed Raises Facebook Libra Concerns

Bitcoin price (BTC) shed more than 10% on July 11 as markets appeared to react to criticism of Facebook’s Libra from a senior United States lawmaker.

Market visualization

Market visualization courtesy of Coin360

Data from Coin360 sees the majority of cryptocurrencies firmly in the red Thursday, hours after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Facebook’s offering should not continue development.

Libra, which aims to act firstly as a cross-border payment method, allegedly buoyed Bitcoin throughout recent weeks, with commentators arguing its public profile was driving publicity and uptake of Bitcoin itself. 

Powell’s demands, which follow similar words from representatives of the Senate House of Financial Services Committee, leant weight to that theory.

“Libra raises serious concerns regarding privacy, money laundering, consumer protection, financial stability,” he said during a speech before a congressional committee. “These are concerns that should be thoroughly and publicly addressed.”

“THESE ARE CONCERNS THAT SHOULD BE THOROUGHLY AND PUBLICLY ADDRESSED.”

At press time, BTC/USD traded down 10.4% at $11,530, having risen as high as $13,160 in recent days. 

Bitcoin 7-day price chart

Bitcoin 7-day price chart. Source: Coin360

The drop places the pair still within its recent corridor between around $9,700 and $13,800, with volatility still in evidence across crypto markets. 

Altcoins, meanwhile, delivered noticeably worse performance as Bitcoin price fell, with several assets in the top twenty by market cap shedding 15% or more.

Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin, lost a similar amount to Bitcoin, hitting $272 and firmly losing support at $300 once again.

Ether 7-day price chart

Ether 7-day price chart. Source: Coin360

Among the worst performers were Bitcoin SV (BSV), which lost 17.2%, and EOS (EOS), which was down 20.2%.KEEP TRACK OF TOP CRYPTO MARKETS IN REAL TIME HERE

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Bitcoin Approaches $11,000 With All Top 20 in Green

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Saturday, July 20 — crypto markets have seen another upward move, with all top 20 coins by market cap seeing major gains, while Bitcoin (BTC) has approached $11,000 mark again.

Market visualization from Coin360

After dipping below the $11,000 threshold on July 14, Bitcoin has approached the price point today, with its intraday high of $10,944, according to data from CoinMarketCap. The biggest cryptocurrency added 3.7% to its price to trade at $10,922 at press time. As Bitcoin has seen significant volatility this week, with its price having dipped below $9,500, the cryptocurrency is down around 3% over the past 7 days at press time.

Bitcoin 24-hour price chart. Source: Coin360

Ether (ETH), the second cryptocurrency by market cap, is up over 5% and trading at $232 at press time. The top altcoin is down 13.4% over the past 7 days.

Ether 7-day price chart. Source: Coin360

Ripple (XRP), the third top cryptocurrency by market cap, added 6.4% to trade at $0.339, also seeing a notable growth over the past 7 days, adding up to about 2.6%.

Ripple 7-day price chart. Source: Coin360

Bitcoin SV (BSV), the ninth top cryptocurrency by market cap, has added over 25% to its value today, seeing the biggest growth among the top 20 coins by market cap.

As of press time, total market capitalization amounts to $298 billion after that number dropped below $250 billion earlier this week. Daily trade volume amounts to around $63 billion.

The new wave of green on crypto markets follows a recent bullish prediction by managing director and quant strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors Sam Doctor, who suggested that much-anticipated Bakkt’s Bitcoin futures contracts will launch in Q3 2019.

Additionally, India’s Minister of State for Finance Anurag Thakur said yesterday that there is no legislation in India that expressly bans citizens from using cryptocurrencies.

by https://cointelegraph.com

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