The new year began with new hopes and all seemed to be going well until Bitcoin decided to head south, causing other cryptocurrencies to follow its path into the grizzly butcher shop.
Bitcoin, the world’s first cryptocurrency, celebrated its 10-year anniversary of the genesis block recently, and the prices were doing well after a sharp drop last year. However, on January 10, 2019, 06:00 UTC, the prices took a U-turn and started heading south with no signs of restraint.
The one-day candle shows a massive drop in price from $4,025 to $3,813, which is a massive $212 price reduction in a day. The wick of the candles dipped even further down, as low as $3,758.
As per the charts form CoinMarketCap, the prices fell down in two successive steps, the first one is the same as mentioned above, whereas the second one took place on the same day at 21:34 UTC when the prices fell down to $3,667. The prices are still holding at this level and show absolutely no signs as the prices could move either way.
The 24-hour trading volume for Bitcoin was $7.12 billion, which was more volume than what it was before the drop. BitMEX is still the largest source for Bitcoin’s trading volume as it contributes a total of $1.7 million in trading volume via the trading pair BTC/USD.
Most of the cryptocurrencies, including XRP, are still swayed by Bitcoin and the price of these altcoins in most instances always follow Bitcoin’s trend.
The same happened on January 10, 2019, for XRP as its price fell down from $0.38 to $0.36 during the same time when Bitcoin collapsed. As per the data obtained from CoinMarketCap, the XRP prices also fell down in two fell swoops. The second drop came around the exact time that Bitcoin fell i.e., at 21:31 UTC.
The decline caused XRP to plummet from $0.34 to $0.32. The prices are currently hovering around $0.3283 and market cap at $13.53 billion. The trade volume for XRP has actually increased from about $600 million to $782 million even after the crash in the prices.
The trade volume for XRP comes mainly from the Korean markets via the exchange, UPbit and trading pair XRP/KRW, which is followed by ZB.COM via the trading pair XRP/BTC.
Many people believe that cryptocurrencies represent a revolution of similar or superior importance to other significant events such as the appearance of the Internet. The introduction of Bitcoin (BTC) and its characteristics have enthused thousands of investors and influencers with increasing effusivity.
While some believe that cryptocurrencies will disappear due to their lack of intrinsic value, others like Mike Novogratz think that blockchain technologies, and especially Bitcoin, can surpass gold as the primary means of storing value in the world.
BTC MARKETCAP COULD EASILY HIT 8 TRILLION
In an interview with Anthony Pompliano, Mr. Novogratz explained that in a span of about 20 years, Bitcoin could “easily” increase its marketcap by 100x, if technological and legal developments continue to facilitate its adoption. This would imply that we would be talking about figures close to 8 Trillion dollars in total marketcap for Bitcoin alone in the next two decades:
Gold’s got an $8 trillion market cap, or a $7.5 trillion market cap. And so, we’re 100x off on that. We’re not going to get there in Bitcoin in the next year or two. But over a 20-year period, could that happen? Easily. Easily. And that’s giving zero optionality to all the other stuff. And so I think it seems like a pretty smart portfolio bet
Novogratz has always defended the idea that Bitcoin will start a new Bull run when governments develop more specific regulations that appeal to institutional investors. In this regard, he explains that it is only a matter of time before large capital investors enter the space:
“I know Goldman for instance is gearing up around securities tokens. They’re not doing anything yet, but they’re getting really ready and looking at all the questions on – where would you store them? Do you have to build your own custody, or can you use someone else’s custody? How to get them to work.
Listen, the regulatory framework isn’t there yet on security tokens. We’re working really hard on our security token business and we’ve got, I think, some cool things in the hopper.”
BOW DOWN AND THANK SATOSHI!
Finally, in the climax of the interview, Novogratz’s enthusiasm was such that he even said that people should bow down and thank Satoshi Nakamoto for creating Bitcoin (BTC).
Bitcoin’s current trading range of $3,920–$4,055 could be breached to the downside, as last week’s doji candle created at the key 21- week moving average resistance is signaling bullish exhaustion.
A downside break of the trading range, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off toward the support levels lined up at $3,775 and $3,658.
On the higher side, a UTC close above $4,055 is needed to put the bulls back into the driver’s seat, although that looks unlikely at press time.
Chart signals of bullish exhaustion suggest bitcoin’s (BTC) narrowing trading range could soon be breached to the downside.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value is sidelined below $4,000 for the fourth straight day, and has been restricted to the narrow range of $3,920–$4,055 since March 17, according to Bitstamp data.
More importantly, prices clocked a high and low of $4,055 and $3,920, respectively, last week before closing Sunday (UTC) largely unchanged at $3,970. The price swing formed what’s termed a doji candle on the weekly chart, which is usually taken to represent indecision in the marketplace.
The candle, however, has appeared following a 20 percent rally from lows near $3,300 seen at the end of January. So, it could be argued that the indecision, as represented by the doji, is predominantly among the buyers.
As a result, the probability of BTC ending the ongoing consolidation with a convincing break below $3,920 appears high.
As of writing, BTC is trading at $3,970 on Bitstamp, largely changed on a 24-hour basis.
On the daily chart, the short-term MA studies are now biased toward the bears, with the 5-day MA having dropped below the 10-day MA. Further, with the price well below the March 21 high of $4,055, the bearish outside-reversal candle created on that day is still valid.
So, the sideways channel seen in the 4-hour chart could be breached to the downside in the next day or two.
A range breakdown if confirmed would open the doors for a deeper drop toward $3,658 (Feb. 27 low).
A UTC close well above $4,055 would revive the short-term bullish view and could yield a rally toward $4,200, although gains may be short-lived, as the 21-week MA is still trending south.
Although the world’s most popular cryptocurrency is still trading in its long-established range between $4,000 and $4,100, some analysts believe the moment of truth for Bitcoin is near. What will it be for Bitcoin? $5,500 or $3,000?
Bitcoin has been trading between the $4,000 and $4,100 range for the last 10 days, and today Bitcoin’s trading behaviour was no different. Bitcoin is currently trading at a price of $4,020 while showing a minor loss of -0.24%, according to coinmarketcap.com.
Most analysts are looking at the upper bound of BTC’s current trading range, the $4,200 price mark, which will most likely act as a level of serious resistance again.
However, a Switzerland-based cryptocurrency analyst, who goes by the Twitter handle, Crypto Krillin, recently took to Twitter to state that the moment of truth for Bitcoin is very near. According to the crypto trader, or BTC will fly straight towards the $5,500 price mark, or we will re-visit $3,000.
Read more: Bitcoin or Gold? Or both?
The Swiss cryptocurrency trader is not the only crypto analyst who seems to be convinced that Bitcoin’s upside target currently exists around the $5,500 price mark.
Just a few days ago, Chepicap reported that Galaxy, another popular cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter, explained to his nearly 50k followers that Bitcoin is pointing to a promising potential for the number one cryptocurrency, hinting to an imminent surge of 35% to $5500.
According to Bulkowski's study, more than 60% of ascending triangles with declining volume end up breaking upwards
Despite many analysts reporting optimistic views on Bitcoin’s near-future upward breakout, another widely recognized cryptocurrency trader known to the Twitter community as ‘The Crypto Dog’, recently came forward stating that it is still possible for Bitcoin to drop to $3,500 in the short term, adding that the market conditions haven’t changed over the last several days.
Read more: Bitcoin can surge as high as $400,000
According to crypto technical analyst known as DonAlt, we can only conclude crypto winter is over until Bitcoin crosses the $4,600 threshold and moves towards $5,000 and $6,000.
‘Volume isn’t what will convince me that the bear market is over’, he said. ‘A bullish market structure along with a break of at least $4.6k is. It’s interesting that we’ve had so many altcoin pumps while the general market cap hasn’t really changed. That makes me think there is very little new money coming in.’