- Cryptocurrencies suffered a fall on Thursday, but hold did not go too far.
- Russia’s intention to purchase digital coins should provide a boost.
- Here are the levels to watch according to the Confluence Detector.
After several days of modest climbs in limited ranges, markets began moving and cryptocurrencies dropped. Ethereum led the charge, Bitcoin was carried lower, while Ripple showed some resilience.
Cryptos may have reasons to rise, as Russia is mulling the purchase of digital currency in order to circumvent the sanctions. The news about this additional demand is joined by reports that Coincheck, a prominent Japanese exchange, will register as a crypto-exchange.
Will coins rebound? The upside technical targets are clear to see.
BTC/USD needs to break above $3,875
Bitcoin, the granddaddy of cryptos that recently celebrated 10 years, has to make a move above $3,875. The level is a dense cluster of lines including the Bollinger Band one-day Middle, the Simple Moving Average 200-1h, the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week, the SMA 10-one-day, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day, the SMA 50-4h, and more.
A minor hurdle awaits at $3,745 where we see the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day, and the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week converge.
Looking down, BTC/USD may find support at $3,573 which is the confluence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month, yesterday’s low, and the BB 1h-Lower.
The next support line is $3,403 which is the meeting point of the Pivot Point one-month Support 3 and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month.
ETH/USD eyes $131
Ethereum initially needs to regain $125.80 where we see the confluence of the BB 1h-Lower, the SMA 5-15m, the BB 4h-Lower, and the BB 15m-Lower.
The upside target is $131 which is the juncture of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month, the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, the BB 15m-Upper, the BB 1h-Upper, and last week’s low.
Some support awaits at $120 which is the meeting point of the PP 1w-S2, the SMA 50-1d, and the SMA 200-4h.
A considerable cushion to Vitalik Buterin’s brainchild awaits at $112.70 which is the convergence of two Fibonacci lines: the 61.8% one-month and the Fibonacci 161.8% one-week.
XRP/USD needs to cross $0.3980
Ripple has the first hurdle at $0.35, a round level and also the confluence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month, the SMA 10-4h, last week’s low, and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day.
The more important target for XRP/USD is at $0.3980 where we see the Fibonacci 61.8$ one-day, the SMA 200-1h, the SMA 4h, the SMA 10-one-day, and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week.
Support awaits at $0.3244 which is the meeting point of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month and yesterday’s low.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum: Don’t look down for shelter
- Distant supports undermine market strength.
- If XRP surprises with rises, the bullish cycle may be reborn.
- A market in a transition phase blinds the short and medium-term outlook.
This trading week begins in a situation identical to that of the previous two ones. The BTC/USD pair is finding it very difficult to conquer the $4,000 price level.
Meanwhile, Ethereum leaves behind the protagonism achieved since December and deactivates the bullish pattern of the ETH/BTC pair. It will need a lot of attention and money to reactivate the pattern in which there is no bullish market if Ethereum does not lead it.
Moving up the timeframes, I find that when examining the weekly chart and applying the Bollinger bands one can see a logic in the current situation. On the one hand, ETH/USD is in the process of confirming the cross to the bullish side of the bands (downward movement). On the other hand, BTC/USD is still in the process of cutting the Bollinger middle line (upward movement).
As long as the situation does not deteriorate further, we can assume to some degree of certainty, or at least in my opinion, that the market is in the final phase of the first bullish section. The next step, to repeat the previous sequence, should give prominence first to the XRP and then the Ethereum.
ETH/BTC 240 Minute Chart
The ETH/BTC pair is currently trading at the price level of 0.034, after confirming the cut in the trend line that governed the most recent bullish movement at 0.0344.
The technical situation of the cross between Ethereum and Bitcoin is delicate. It is very rare for this type of break of support to result in a recovery.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is in the accelerated bearish trend line (black dotted) at the 0.0342 price level. The second resistance level for the ETH/BTC pair is at the parallel bullish trend line at the price level of0.0346. The third resistance level is essential. It is 0.035 (price congestion resistance) and beating it would give the market a strong bullish momentum.
BTC/USD 240 Minute Chart
BTC/USD continues to hold on to the EMA50, moving away from the negative tone that reigns among the leading market players. It is currently trading at the $3,970 price level after trying to breach the $4,000 psychological level over the weekend.
Above the current price, the first resistance level for the BTC/USD pair is precisely at $4,000 (price congestion resistance), while the second resistance level is at $4,050 (price congestion resistance). The third resistance level is at$4,200 (price congestion resistance and relative maximum). If Bitcoin exceeds this price level, it will certify a new upward leg, probably toward the $5,700 price level.
Below the current price, the BTC/USD pair enjoys strong support. The first level of support is a multiple confluence, formed by the EMA50 at $3,967, a price congestion support at $3,957, the SMA100 at the price level of $3,932, another support at $3,995 (price congestion support) and the SMA200 at $3,889.
Below this spectacular support structure, the situation worsens dramatically, as the second level of support for BTC/USD goes below $3,700 (price congestion support), while the third level of support is at the $3,600 price level.
The MACD on the 4-hour chart moves slightly below the neutral line of the indicator. The profile is slightly down and no opening between the lines.
The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows how the bears keep control of the situation without too many problems. The bulls retreat slightly in the past few days and make it easier for the bearish side of the market.
ETH/USD 240 Minute Chart
ETH/USD is currently trading at $136 while remaining close to the strong resistance level formed by the confluence of the three moving averages in the analysis. The structure is negative in the short term.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is formed by the SMA100 at $136.8, then the EMA50 at the price level of $137.3 and finally the SMA200 at $138.2. The second resistance level is at the price level of $142.5 (price congestion resistance), while the third resistance level for the ETH/USD pair is at $151 (price congestion resistance).
Below the current price, the first support level is $130.5 (price congestion support), then the second at $120 (price congestion support). The third level of support for ETH/USD is already far away, at $115 (price congestion support).
The MACD on the 4-hour chart is in the negative zone and has a very flat profile. There is NO distance between lines, faithfully representing the lack of directionality of the market.
The DMI in the 4-hour chart shows us that the bears are controlling the market and driving the bulls to lower terrain. The bullish side of the market goes below the ADX and starts a typically bearish pattern.
XRP/USD 240 Minute Chart
XRP/USD is currently trading at $0.307 after losing support at the price congestion area at $0.308. Now it slides down following a bearish trend line that was born on the 20th.
Above the current price, the first resistance level for XRP/USD at $0.3085where congestion support converges at $0.308 and the bearish trend line at $0.3075. The second resistance level is a confluence in the environment at$0.317, with the EMA50 at $0.312, the SMA100 at $0.314, the SMA200 at $0.316 and the price congestion resistance at $0.317. The third resistance level is at $0.328.
Below the current price, the first support level is at $0.3000 (price congestion support). The second support level is at $0.293 (price congestion support). The third support level for XRP/USD pair is at $0.288 (price congestion support).
The MACD on the 4-hour chart is moving in the negative zone of the indicator. The profile is slightly bearish with hardly any line spacing. It is a favorable scheme for bearish continuity.
The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows bulls with absolute control of the market. On the other hand, the bulls retreat with strength and so much force that they have taken the situation to an extreme that can propitiate a bullish rebound by excessive deviation of the price to the common standard.
Get 24/7 Crypto updates in our social media channels: Give us a follow [email protected] and our FXStreet Crypto Trading Telegram channel
Tim Draper is Trying to Convince Argentina to Make Bitcoin A National Currency
On his recent trip to Argentina, billionaire investor and Bitcoin advocate Tim Draper met personally with President Mauricio Macri. Draper presented a pretty bold idea to the Head of State. Make Bitcoin the national currency of Argentina.
“I suggested that he make Bitcoin a national currency and to bring in 5G and let the market figure it out and build all the roads and everything else for him,” Draper said according to es.cointelegraph.
Draper thinks a rush of new startups will flood Argentina if they are crypto friendly.
“That could end up being just phenomenal and globally, people will start saying I’m going to Argentina to start my business.”
As the blockchain movement grows so will the demand for decentralization. Draper realizes that the building of blockchain infrastructure along with killer apps is the key to money flowing into the crypto space.
“It seems simple to me because all you’re doing is you’re flowing with the decentralization movement. And that movement turns out to be really important and all the geographic borders are gonna fall and we’re gonna be one big world.”
Draper is known for making bold claims and suggestions, but many would see the adoption of BTC as a national currency as a mere impossibility. However, it’s hard to argue with the idea that crypto friendly rules and regulations, along with the recognition of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as real money will go a long way for a country’s economic conditions. Startups are feverishly building the blockchain projects of tomorrow, and government clarity can only speed that process up.
Ripple (XRP) Sees A Rise In Sell Pressure Just Before A Long Anticipated Breakout
Ripple (XRP) has seen a sudden rise in sell pressure as the price keeps stalling a breakout to the upside. This has encouraged the bears to step up and take control. The daily chart for XRPUSDShorts shows that the number of margined shorts is up more than 2% for the day and is expected to rise before the weekly close. This shows that the bears are prepared to capitalize on any weakness in the market as the bulls clearly lack the will to push higher from current levels. Ripple (XRP) has suffered the most the past few months compared to other cryptocurrencies. It is now extremely oversold against Bitcoin (BTC) on larger time frames but the price has yet to show any signs of a bullish comeback.
On the other hand, the number of margined shorts has declined significantly the past few months. It is very likely that XRPUSDShorts might bottom out as early as next week which would set the ground for another correction to the downside that could see XRP/USD finally find its true bottom. Ripple (XRP) does not have significant room for further decline against Bitcoin (BTC) but it might still see some moves to the downside against the US Dollar (USD). That being said, it remains in a better position compared to most other cryptocurrencies to capitalize on a final move up before that correction sets in. It seems as Ripple (XRP)’s fate in the near future hinges on clarification regarding its legal status. We could see important development in this regard any time now. Given Ripple’s legal history, it is likely that they will get a favorable ruling because the team behind Ripple comprises of some of the most persistent and hardworking people in the industry.
The daily chart for XRP/USD shows that Ripple (XRP) has broken above a critical trend line resistance but the price has still not rallied as the bulls expected it to. The price has been dragging along the 50 day moving average for weeks without any signs of a bullish comeback. This time the daily trading conditions are ripe for a strong move to the upside which could see Ripple (XRP) rise towards its 200 day moving average. The price is expected to face some resistance at the 200 Day MA but a near term rally seems inevitable at this point.
We might see some favorable developments or rulings short term that might serve as catalysts for a strong move to the upside but let us not forget that overall market conditions on the weekly time frame signal another move to the downside. The declining number of margined shorts points to the same conclusion. While the rest of the market is expected to decline heavily against Bitcoin (BTC) after a short term rally to the upside, Ripple (XRP) on the other hand is already oversold against Bitcoin (BTC) and is expected to hold its ground during the next major decline.