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Dow Dips, Bitcoin Clings to Gains as Tuesday Promises Volatility

In the last 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market recovered by $4 billion as the Bitcoin price rebounded above $3,700.

Several major crypto assets in the likes of Ethereum and TRON have recorded large gains on the day, rising by more than three percent against Bitcoin.

Even if the price of Bitcoin and other crypto assets continue to decline substantially in the first two quarters of 2019, one trader sees the market massively recovering by the end of 2019.

How Can Bitcoin Initiate a Big Rally by the End of This Year?

bitcoin price
Could the Bitcoin price make a major recovery this year? One analyst thinks so.

Generally, analysts in the cryptocurrency space expect the correction of the asset class to be extended throughout the first half of this year.

Since November 2017, Bitcoin has shown a lack of momentum, struggling to break out of key resistance levels in the $5,000 to $6,000 range.

The lack of strength in the short-term trend of the dominant cryptocurrency has led other digital assets, especially cryptocurrencies with low market caps and volumes, to perform poorly against the U.S. dollar.

History Suggests Recovery in Near Future

Still, in the latter half of 2019, one cryptocurrency technical analyst with an online alias “Galaxy” said that based on the historical price movement of Bitcoin, the asset could demonstrate large gains in 10 to 12 months.

The analyst said:

‘The future lies in the study of the past’ We’re approaching the 420 day mark which ended the 2015 bear market and if history repeats itself, we’re moving towards several months of accumulation and a new bull cycle starting mid-late 2019.

Historically, Bitcoin had taken on average 62 weeks to recover from an 85 percent correction throughout the past nine years. 15 months since the start of the bear market in January would be March of this year.

Willy Woo Eyes Q2 as Crypto Market Bottom

Some analysts believe that the cryptocurrencies are in the last phase of the bear market and could begin showing signs of recovery by the second quarter of 2019.

Willy Woo, a prominent cryptocurrency researcher and the founder of Woobull.com, said prior to the large drop in the Bitcoin price in late November:

Putting together the blockchain view, I suspect the timing for a bottom may be around Q2 2019. After that we start the true accumulation band, only after that, do we start a long grind upwards.

Market Moves by Cycle

bitcoin price crypto market cycle
Investors should remember that the cryptocurrency market moves in cycles.

The cryptocurrency market is rarely affected by emerging events or news. Rather, the market primarily moves based on sentiment.

For Bitcoin and other crypto assets to rebound and engage in an accumulation phase, the market has to become revitalized once again.

Similar to the movement of Bitcoin in 2017, some analysts see a boring year ahead for crypto assets in 2019 but are not dismissing the potential of digital assets experiencing an abrupt surge in value approaching the end of the year.

Currently, the volume of Bitcoin remains high at $5.7 billion, and the trading activity in the cryptocurrency market has increased by a relatively large margin, suggesting that bulls are demonstrating some resistance in a low price range.

Bitcoin

BITCOIN BREAKS $9K SUPPORT, HODL ON EVERYBODY

The Rundown

  • Will We Ever See a Pre-Halving Bitcoin Run Up?
  • Bearish trader predicts 8K

Bitcoin briefly broke through the $9,000 support level today, to a new swing low of $8960. The leading cryptocurrency has lost over $1500 in price since being rejected at the $10,600 resistance on February 13.


WILL WE EVER SEE A PRE-HALVING BITCOIN RUN UP?

It seems that Bitcoin’s uptrend has lost a lot of its bullish steam. The largest coin by market cap was rejected at a strong $10,600 resistance on February 13th, and has been declining in price ever since. Has the momentum of the market shifted?

Has sentiment shifted to a bearish consensus among traders, or will Bitcoin make a bullish reversal and continue it 2020 momentum on to new yearly highs?

There are some prominent traders on social media arguing that this may simply be a healthy retracement, and that bulls are gearing up for more upside.

The decline in price could be whales simply hunting stops from overleveraged long positions, before the momentum swings back in favor of the buyers. An alternative perspective is that the bullish momentum surrounding the hype of Bitcoin’s upcoming halving may have simply ran out of buyers.

If Bitcoin manages to bounce back above the key resistance level of $9300, we could see the bulls take control again, as Bitcoin heads back towards $11,000.14 BTC & 30,000 Free Spins for every player, only in mBitcasino’s Crypto Love Affair! Play Now!

There are 73 days left until the halving is expected to occur. Bitcoin’s halving has historically been bullish going into the reduction of block rewards.

BEARISH TRADER PREDICTS 8K

Bitcoin has strong support at $8,800 and at 8,000. Since we have already broke under $9,000, we may see a retest of $8,800. If this critical support doesn’t hold we may see price slip to $8,000 before a strong bounce.

Twitter trader Looposhi tweeted his prediction of a double bottom at $8K, before resuming the uptrend.

Hodlers of last resort may be ready to strongly defend the 8,800 support and the retracement may simply be a shakeout of weaker hands before we see Bitcoin rocket back to retest the $10,600 resistance.

A bearish run up to the halving would be a break from the first two occurrences, which were wildly bullish and drove price to new all time highs.

The current price of Bitcoin at time of writing is $8935. A retest of $8,800 seems imminent, and will determine if the bulls or bears have control of the reigns. We’ll have to wait and see if price closes above or below this key support level.

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Bitcoin’s 2017 hardfork-triggered ‘BCH treasure-hunt’ still dividing mining pools

On 1 August 2017, Bitcoin Cash had forked away from Bitcoin after weeks of speculation and on 24 August, Bitcoin activated its SegWit upgrade.

Considered to be an important update, SegWit added a different P2SH address: nested Segwit which started ‘3’. The only difference between a normal P2SH address and a SegWit one is their spending scripts. The launch of SegWit is one of the main reasons for the lost 19,000 BCH to SegWit addresses.

Coinmetrics’ Recent State of the Network discussed the BCH tokens that have been mistakenly lost since 2017 and remain inaccessible because BCH did not have SegWit.

With time, it was figured out that miners would be able to access the lost BCH if they are able to break the standardness rules. The report said,

“Transactions spending from a nested SegWit address on Bitcoin Cash break one of these standardness rules (the clean stack rule, to be precise) and therefore will not be relayed; they can only be mined if included directly by a miner. So miners, or a user in direct contact with a miner, can spend from nested SegWit addresses on Bitcoin Cash, while normal users cannot.”

After such an opportunity was deciphered by a Russian Bitcointalk user, it was understood that only slightly more than 400 BCH sent to SegWit addresses on BCH could be claimed by miners.

It was clear as day that a capable miner was crucial to breaking the standardness rule. On 14 November 2017, the news that over 470 BCH worth $644k was available on a SegWit address went public. It did not take much time thereafter as two days later, BTC.com recovered the first batch of 100.7 BCH that were mistakenly sent to the nested SegWit addresses.

After the first recovery, BTC.com sent up its recovery service which started at a period of recovering BCH, at press time. BTC.com charged a recovery finder’s fee of 10 percent that was sent to the same address and it was identified that the revenue pool had 368.03 BCH.

Source: Coinmetrics

Over time, other mining pools have joined in the quest for the lost BCH, something that was observed in the table shared above. The major problem with such a scenario is that the situation could have been easily avoided if necessary precautions were taken before the hard fork on 1 August 2017. Bitcoin’s quick update to SegWit right after the hardfork should have been activated after users were clear on Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash’s network situation.

Source: Coinmetrics

Data from the report suggested that at press time, over 8,979 BCH has been recovered, but the extra finder’s fee allocated to these pools could have been avoided in the first place. Since last year, mining pools such as BTC.com and BTC.top are at 5,779 BCH and 3,846 BCH, respectively. With more than 9000 BCH still out there in nested SegWit addresses, the eventful hardfork from 2017 continues to stir a tussle between these pools over a lost jackpot.

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Bitcoin briefly slips under $9k; triggers liquidations worth $11M

Bitcoin has been taking continuous hits in the spot market and at press time, the coin was noting a fall of 3.37% – a fall that pushed the price of the coin under $9k. According to the Chaikin Money Flow [CMF] indicator, the digital asset surged to occupy the overbought zone after Bitcoin’s price recorded a sudden plunge on 26 February.

Source: BTC/USD on Trading View

Source: BTC/USD on Trading View

According to the chart provided by data analytics firm Skew, almost $11 million longs were liquidated. $9,300 was looked upon as strong support since 5 Feb, however, as the coin went under this mark sell-order might have been triggered.

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