The Dow Jones Industrial Average enters Tuesday seeking to snap a streak of two consecutive losing sessions, but the specters of the Brexit vote and earnings season threaten to derail the index’s mid-week recovery. The cryptocurrency market, meanwhile, continues to flash green, as bitcoin and other large-cap assets cling to Monday’s recovery while bracing for Constantinople, Ethereum’s upcoming hard fork.
Dow Trades Sideways in Advance of Opening Bell
Traditional markets remain shaky ahead of Tuesday’s opening bell, and futures contracts tracking the Dow and its peers spent much of the day bouncing around their levels at Monday’s close.
As of the time of writing at 8:32 am ET, Dow futures were down just 2 points to 23,865, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures both traded slightly in the green with gains of 0.11 percent and 0.42 percent, respectively.
Yesterday, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed in the red for the second consecutive day after posting a five-day winning streak. The Dow dropped 86.11 points or 0.36 percent, once again failing to break through and hold above the elusive 24,000 mark. The S&P 500 shed 13.65 points or 0.53 percent, and the Nasdaq endured a 65.56 or 0.94 percent drop-off.
Nevertheless, all three indices remain firmly in positive territory for 2019 and have mostly erased the mid-December losses that contributed to the stock market’s dismal end to last year.
Concern as JP Morgan Misses Profit for First Time in 15 Quarters
Wall Street continues to closely monitor corporate earnings as analysts weigh the risk of the US economy slipping into a recession.
Sentiment turned sour on Tuesday morning after JP Morgan missed profit expectations for the first time in 15 quarters. According to CNBC, the Jamie Dimon-led banking giant accrued $1.98 per share in profit during the fourth quarter of 2018, well below the $2.20 per share that analysts had expected.
Like Citigroup, which missed revenue targets but nevertheless rallied on stronger-than-expected profit figures, JP Morgan blamed a decline in bond trading revenue for weighing on its fourth-quarter performance.
“Despite a challenging quarter, we grew markets revenue in the investment bank for the year with record performance in equities and solid performance in fixed income,” CEO Jamie Dimon said in the earnings release.
Dimon, who has said that he does not believe the US is heading into the outer rings of a recession, nevertheless admonished the country’s leaders to “strike a collaborative, constructive tone, which would reinforce already-strong consumer and business sentiment. Businesses, government and communities need to work together to solve problems and help strengthen the economy for the benefit of everyone.”
Brexit Hangs in the Balance
But while corporate earnings promise to remain a lingering concern for the stock market’s recent recovery, today’s Brexit vote could be a far more pressing threat.
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan is expected to fail in parliament today — perhaps spectacularly — but analysts predict that the vote will inject significant volatility into the markets, so much so that many brokers have limited leverage for UK stocks and currency futures.
As Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex chief market strategist, told CNBC:
We could see knee-jerk volatility. She could lose by a historic margin. This could be a historic loss by the government.
In preparation for this seeming eventuality, May told senior ministers that she would continue to work to facilitate Britain’s orderly exit from the European Union and “respond quickly” to the outcome of the vote, which is expected to take place between 7 pm and 9 pm GMT.
“The prime minister said the government is the servant of the people and she believes passionately that we must deliver on the result of the 2016 referendum,” a spokesman for the prime minister said in remarks quoted by Reuters. “She added that after the vote has taken place, she would respond quickly to the result.”
Bitcoin Clings to Gains as Ethereum Braces for Constantinople
Neither Brexit nor corporate earnings season is expected to have much direct impact on the cryptocurrency markets, though some analysts including eToro’s Mati Greenspan maintain that bitcoin and its peers are more connected to other asset classes than many investors realize.
In any case, the crypto market saw a moderate recovery on Monday. The bitcoin price, which had on Sunday slipped below the so-called “GTFO” level of $3,500, popped above the $3,700 mark on Bitstamp and other cryptocurrency exchanges, though it has since ebbed to $3,647 as of the time of writing.
The ethereum price, meanwhile, is up 8 percent on the day, owing to optimism over the Jan. 16 Constantinople hard fork. The fork, which will activate at block 7080000, will introduce a number of upgrades into the Ethereum protocol, which developers say will better prepare it to scale to the requirements of future mainstream adoption.
Equally as important is that Constantinople will reduce the ethereum inflation rate by 33 percent, as the cryptocurrency’s block reward will decline to 2 ETH per block from 3 ETH. This should reduce selling pressure from miners.
Importantly, this hard fork, unlike the recent one which roiled Bitcoin Cash, is not expected to splinter the Ethereum network into multiple competing versions — and cryptocurrencies. While a group of disgruntled users could always refuse to migrate to the new protocol version, miners, exchanges, and other infrastructure providers have committed to supporting the network upgrade.
Nevertheless, traders will be closely watching the hard fork’s activation, as unforeseen bugs and other disruptions could lead to significant price volatility in the short-term.
Bitcoin price prediction: BTC/USD confluence detector shows lack of resistance and support levels
- The daily confluence detector shows one healthy support level at $10,075.
- BTC/USD has gone down from $10,110 to $10,092.
The hourly BTC/USD price chart shows us that the price dropped from $10,130 to $9,815 this Thursday. The bulls then gathered momentum before it picked up to $10,190, meeting resistance. Since then, BTC/USD has been on a continuous downtrend and is currently trending around $10,092.
BTC/USD daily confluence detector
The daily confluence detector shows only one prominent resistance and support level. The $10,500 resistance level has the 5-day simple moving average (SMA 5) curve. The $10,075 support level has the 1-month 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, SMA 10, 1-hour Bollinger band middle curve and 4-hour previous low.
Bloomberg Says Bitcoin Could be Finding Support at $10,000 as Altcoins Rebound
Yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) suddenly slipped. After tapping $11,000 just days earlier, the cryptocurrency cratered, falling under $10,000 as bulls failed to step in.
This move was so dramatic that according to the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index, this sudden reversal has resulted in a reading of five — the index’s lowest value in its history. This is crazy, especially considering that BTC is trading over 300% higher than its bottom price of $3,150.
While the index’s reading may seem entirely arbitrary — just look at the bullish momentum Bitcoin has experienced in the first half of 2019 — the index is backed by data.
The website that hosts the index claims it analyses a fair mix of volatility, market momentum and volume, social media trends, surveys, dominance, and Google Trends to get the gist of how cryptocurrency investors are faring.
Bitcoin Bounces Back
But, the Bitcoin price has managed to bounce back. After remaining under $10,000 for a number of hours, the cryptocurrency managed to reclaim five digits.
Per Bloomberg, the cryptocurrency “appears to be gaining momentum for a push higher”. The analyst recently claimed that as BTC recently dropped “below the lower limit of its GTI Vera Band Indicator, which measures up and down trends”, a spike to the upside may be ahead. The last four times the bottom band was breached, “it managed to quickly rally back into the range”.
According to Mike McGlone, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, Bitcoin is currently setting itself up for a recovery. He explained in a note that its “unique attributes” (likely a reference to its classification as a digital store of value/digital version of gold) and tumult on the macroeconomic stage could help boost the value of Bitcoin. Indeed, many say that if trade wars continue to rage and if central banks continue to enlist unorthodox monetary policy, the need for a form of money that is decentralized, scarce, borderless, and public will only swell.
While McGlone is bullish for the medium term, he told Bloomberg TV in a recent interview that his short and long-term prospects on the cryptocurrency are mixed.
Per previous reports from Ethereum World News, McGlone argued that with there being key support at $8,000 and heavy resistance at $20,000, the cryptocurrency could be stuck in that range “endlessly”. He added that on-chain fundamentals — active addresses, number of daily transactions, fees, and so on and so forth — have begun to taper off like they did to trigger 2018’s bear market.
Altcoins Finally Gain Some Steam
Interestingly, throughout this short-term recovery, altcoins have bounced, actually outperforming Bitcoin for once.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin dominance has fallen to 68.5% from nearly 70%. Ethereum is up 3.5% on the day, while BTC is up a relatively mere 0.2%. It’s a similar story across the cryptocurrency rankings.
Bitcoin Vs. Ripple: Amidst the Bearish Trend, The Coins Gave Some Brief Moment of Trading
There is a close link between the movement of Bitcoin and Ripple. Both of them are strong coins with a dedicated community of users. At present, they are facing some negative sentiments, but this will wash off soon.
Current Statistics (On August 22 at UTC 08:38):
|Parameters||Ripple (XRP)||Bitcoin (BTC)|
|Market Cap||11,339,553,299 USD||178,409,831,940 USD|
|24-Hour Volume||1,033,612,299 USD||18,408,249,735 USD|
|Circulating Supply||42,890,708,341 XRP||17,890,087 BTC|
|Price in BTC||0.00002654||NA|
BTC Vs. XRP Price Analysis:
Both Bitcoin and Ripple started on a declining note. In the first hours of the day, Bitcoin price has declined by 6.15% and fell to the level of 10,125.86 USD. Similarly, Ripple declined by 4.15% and landed at $0.2628. After that, the declining trend has slowed a bit, and coins kept fluctuating up and down in the range of around 2%. However, during the early minutes of the second half, on the other day, came yet another dip where BTC price declined by 2.21% and Ethereum by 0.96%.
After the second intraday breakdown, the digital coins have shown some strengthening for the next couple of hours. In that period, BTC hiked by 1.75% and XRP by 1.5%. The next plunge that came in around midnight dragged Bitcoin price by 2.91% and took it below $10k mark again. Similarly, XRP declined by 2.02% and landed at the level of 0.26 USD. Lately, the cryptos have been hovering at those levels and showed some bounce back, which helped then to move toward their current position.
BTC vs XRP Prediction & Conclusion:
Making any prediction in this swinging market is a rigorous task. However, for now, Ripple faces immediate resistance at $0.274454 and support at $0.259335. For Bitcoin, the immediate resistance is at 10,636.95 USD and support level at $9,800.93.
The Ripple team has done a recent assessment of the blockchain and assured that they will work toward the narrowing of the skill gap. Further, they added that in order to address the issue, the team would seek the help of experts including academia, governments, and private organizations.