From Friday’s open when the price of Bitcoin was $3437 at the open, the price has increased by 10.6% measured to its highest spike at $3800 but since it has been consolidating and is currently sitting at $3687 which is an overall increase of 7.25%.
Looking at the 15-min chart we can see that the price of Bitcoin has gone above the 0.382 Fibonacci level and has interacted with the 0.5 Fibonacci level on Friday’s spike where it got rejected fast and the price went below the $3783 horizontal resistance level. The price started consolidating after the increase and made a falling wedge from which actually a breakout was made yesterday near today’s open on which the price was $3749 which was still lower than the 15 min candle close of the prior high.
Wave structure looks corrective so after this stagnation, I would be expecting a further increase as this would be the 4th wave out of the 5 wave impulse that started to the upside. The price target would be at least to the 0.5 Fibonacci level again but for a proper interaction but we might see it go even further up. Today we are most likely going to see a decrease at first since the third Minuette correction is to fully develop and it will most likely serve as a retest of support at around $3666 area.
There is another possibility in which the 5 wave impulse ended on the now labeled C wave of the second Minuette correction (orange), but this isn’t my primary count since the increase ended lower than the ending point of the 3rd wave. This scenario will be presented on Ethereum’s chart since it’s yesterday’s increase was slightly higher than the previous one.
On Friday, the price of Ethereum was $105 at its lowest point from where an increase has been made to $124.92 on the same day which was an increase of 18.86%. From there the price started correcting and moving sideways but yesterday another increase has been made from $118.19 at its lowest point to $128.11 at its highest spike which was an increase of 8.39% close to today’s open.
As you can see from the 15-min chart the price fell from there as it entered the sellers’ territory above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, the price is sitting at $124 and is in the upward trajectory but as indicated by the wick from the upside it has encountered sellers’ pressure and is likely heading for a retracement now.
My Elliott Wave count implies that the impulsive move the the upside has ended as I have counted all 5 waves. Yesterday’s increase ended higher than the one we have seen on Friday so you can see the similarities and the differences between its chart and the Bitcoin’s chart.
Ethereum’s chart implies that we are now going to see a retracement potentially back to around 0.382 Fibonacci level at $116 as now a correction will occur after an impulsive move.
As I am expecting to see the price of Ethereum higher than these current level the expected decrease would be a correctional move which would be the second wave of a higher degree impulse.
From Friday’s open when the price of Ripple was $0.29405 at its lowest point the price has increased to $0.3259 at its highest point on the same day which was an increase of 10.83%.
From there the price has decreased as it encountered resistance at the falling wedge resistance line and is currently sitting at $0.30797.
Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price is trying to break out from the falling wedge as it has been interacting with its resistance line from Friday when the increase to it was made.
The price is currently sitting on the 200 MA which may serve as a support for a breakout but the cluster that is currently being formed around it hasn’t provided many indications on the potential direction. RSI is on its midpoint around 45% which again indicates neutrality.
If the Z wave of the Minor WXYXZ correction ended on the interaction with the horizontal support level at $0.29405 then we are seeing the start of the impulsive move that is set to lead the price above the territory of the falling wedge, but the Z wave might not have ended.
In that case, the increase that we have seen on Friday is the continuation of the second X wave, so if the price falls below the minor horizontal support line at $0.30144 (interrupted black line) then the second scenario would be more likely.
The 0 Fibonacci level is the beginning point of the first wave W of the Intermediate count so it would make sense if the price goes further down below it on the last corrective wave.
That scenario would look like on the chart below and as you can see the Friday’s increase was ending point of the second wave X out of the Minor WXYXZ correction and it was a three wave correction to the upside.
If this is true then the last Z wave to the downside has started and is going to be an impulsive move to the downside potentialy for another interaction with the falling wedge which would be at around $0.23562 before we see the start of the Intermediate Y wave.
Bitcoin Cash BCH/USD
From Friday’s open at $113.5 the price of Bitcoin Cash has increased by 14.24% to $129 at its highest point. As the price increased to the descending channels resistance line and encountered resistance there it has started pulling back and is currently sitting at $120.5
The price is now on the 200 MA where it is interacting with it for a support testing purposes so if the price find support there, we are likely going to see another move to the upside beyond the descending channels resistance and the first target I see for it would be at the horizontal resistance at $135.
As you can see in the case of Bitcoin Cash the Z wave has ended which is why the increase we have seen after that has five waves followed by a correction and now we are seeing the next 3rd wave of a higher degree ending its development.
Zooming out to the 4-hour chart you can see that my higher degree Minor count which would be the five wave impulse if the Z wave ended so now I would be expecting a breakout from the descending channel on the 3rd Minor wave and then a pullback to the descending channels resistance for a retest of support on the 4th and then another increase to $155 are.
Crypto Market Update:
Disclaimer: Trade analysis isn’t meant to be investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) weekly forecast on February 18 — 24, 2019
Cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading at 3587. Cryptocurrency quotes are trading below the moving average with a period of 55. This indicates a bearish trend for Bitcoin. At the moment, cryptocurrency quotes are moving near the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) weekly forecast on February 18 — 24, 2019
As part of the Bitcoin exchange rate forecast, the test level of 3820 is expected. Where should we expect an attempt to continue the fall of BTC/USD and the further development of the downward trend. The purpose of this movement is the area near the level of 2700. The conservative area for selling Bitcoin is located near the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator at the level of 3850.
Cancellation of the option to continue the decline in Bitcoin will be the breakdown of the area of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. As well as the moving average with a period of 55 and closing of quotations of the pair above the area of 4250. This will indicate a change in the current trend in favor of the bullish for BTC/USD. In the event of a breakdown of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator bands, we should expect an acceleration of the fall of the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) weekly forecast on February 18 — 24, 2019 implies a test level of 3820. Further, it is expected to continue falling to the area below the level of 2700. The conservative area for selling Bitcoin is located area of 3850. Canceling the option of falling cryptocurrency will break the level of 4250. In this case, we should expect continued growth.
BTCUSD Analysis: Bitcoin still trading in a bearish consolidation [Video]
Any upside moves are classified as corrective ahead of what could be the next downside extension and bearish continuation. It would take a break back above 4,380 at a minimum to take the immediate pressure off the downside. Next critical support comes in the form of the July and September 2017 lows, around 2,000 and 2,975 respectively.
In this analysis, we take a look at Bitcoin each day, highlighting all of the need to knows for anyone looking to extract up to date information about major levels and relevant trends, both short term and longer-term. The analysis is designed for the trader, investor and even those simply holding the crypto asset, looking for an idea of where they may want to consider making that next conversion.
The cryptocurrency update is new each day and is presented with an added layer of animation, in an effort to make the analysis as engaging as possible, while also communicating the message with respect to key trends and levels in an easy to understand, seamless manner with great value add to all.
Are Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) Net Positive Or Negative For Bitcoin And Crypto Assets?
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) have been analyzed by several banking institutions around the world, specifically by several central banks in different countries. However, they are different than virtual currencies such as Bitcoin (BTC). How would the issuance of CBDCs affect Bitcoin and the whole crypto market?
There are some important differences between Bitcoin and CBDCs. For example, Bitcoin is permissionless, decentralized and censorship-resistant while CBDCs are permission, centralized and censorable. Thus, they are almost contrary to Bitcoin. While the most popular cryptocurrency provides freedom to users, CBDCs allow governments to have larger control over their populations.
A few days ago, the popular investment bank JP Morgan unveiled a stablecoin called JPM Coin that would be used to make transfers between customers in just a few seconds. Although JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon has been against virtual currencies, it seems that the bank will be using blockchain technology to power their virtual currency.
There were several individuals in the market claiming that the new JP Morgan digital coin killed Bitcoin, or at least, it is going to kill the most popular cryptocurrency in the market. However, it is important to understand that these coins will never be similar and work in a completely different way. CBDCs and stablecoins issued by financial institutions such as JP Morgan work in a centralized and controlled way.
Indeed, these new digital assets do not seem to present a threat to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. SWIFT could be affected by these new coins. SWIFT is the mainstream and most popular system to perform cross-border payments. This system has proven to be slow and costly for many financial institutions and banks all over the world. Indeed, Ripple’s services could also be affected by the growth of new CBDCs.
CBDCs legitimize that virtual currencies are the future of money. Because of this, it might be possible for Bitcoin to distance itself from drugs and criminals. At the same time, with CBDCs individuals will discover that there are several advantages of using digital assets.
Individuals will clearly have their funds frozen at any moment using CBDCs if the financial institution regulating the asset decides so. Moreover, their accounts can be suspended and users would not be able to use these funds anymore.
There are some crypto experts that believe that CBDCs could be very harmful to societies. For example, China is currently trying to control its population with new surveillance systems related to how individuals use their funds.
Crypto fiat (i.e. government controlled permissioned cryptocurrencies) will be the biggest battleground globally for human rights over the next decade. China is leading the way, many other countries, including some big western democracies, will follow. https://t.co/8BqfmBJ2mP
— Ari Paul (@AriDavidPaul) February 13, 2019
With CBDCs, people will realize that there is no more freedom and that the government is ultimately controlling everything. This is why Bitcoin could grow as a safe haven where users can feel free to use their funds as they want without being controlled by governments.
That does not mean that Bitcoin will be used to perform illegal things. It means that users will protect their privacy and what they do with their funds.