XMR/USD Medium-term Trend: Ranging
- Resistance levels: $52, $54, $56
- Support levels: $42, $40, $38
XMR/USD market worth has been choppily trading within $50 and $46 marks since the trading sessions commence this week. After a long range of price movements last week, the crypto like most others in its category swung northwards to approach $50 mark on February 8.
The Bollinger Middle Band is located between $48 and $46 levels as price has also been hovering within them. The 50-day SMA is found around $44 level while the Bollinger Bands are situated over it. The Stochastic Oscillators have slightly dipped into the oversold zone to probably suggest the weakness of bears in the market.
Price levels towards the 50-day SMA indicators may now be used by bulls to conveniently launch a coming back into this crypto-trade.
XMR/USD Short-term Trend: Bearish
The market worth of XMR/USD has been on a relative decline in the short-term run in the last couple of hours today. Yesterday, there was a notable increase during the trading sessions as the pair managed to record a high point slightly over $49 mark.
As at now, the market has been trading around $47 level. The Bollinger Middle Band and the 50-day SMA are also almost conjoint at the aforementioned spot. The Stochastic Oscillators appears to have briefly opened hairs below range 20 in the oversold zone. That could possibly be a signal for seeing more ups than downs in this crypto-trade.
If the bulls lack the catalyst to break and hold above the 50-day SMA, then bears may have to press down the market in their own direction.
XMR/USD: Monero set for March 9th Hard Fork
Monero developers are set to fork their network on March 9th to reduce the effectiveness of ASICs.
The hard fork will change Monero’s proof-of-work algorithm and reduce the hash rate capabilities of ASIC miners by a factor of more than 2.5.
Monero developers are set to fork their network on March 9th to reduce the effectiveness of ASICs. This move will significantly lower hash rate allowing small-scale mining operations running graphics processing units (GPUs) to compete favorably and make the network’s PoW algorithm less ASIC-friendly.
The details of the hard fork, as posted by Redditor by sech1, are as follows:
The fork will occur at block height 1,788,000.
The network upgrade will bring about changes to Monero’s PoW algorithm by adjusting blocksize.
Monero devs will activate the fork on the 0.13 branch.
The hard fork will stall the effectiveness of the ASIC miners. As per sech1, this new PoW algorithm will reduce the hash rate capabilities of ASIC miners by a factor of more than 2.5. There is another future hard fork that has been tentatively scheduled for October 2019.
MONERO (XMR) Long-Term Price Forecast- February 10
XMR/USD Long-term Trend: Ranging
Supply zone: $100.00, $110.00, $120.00
Demand zone: $30.00, $20.00, $10.00
XMR long-term outlook continues in a range-bound market. $42.08 in the demand area was the low while $50.69 in the supply area was the high of the week as the cryptocurrency continues in the range.
The bullish engulfing candle at $43.71 on 8th February manages to break both EMAs but closed below the 50-EMA and ended the trading week a doji signaling a possible brief bears comeback ahead.
Price is above the 10-EMA with the stochastic oscillator signal pointing up 74% an indication of upward momentum within the range.
The cryptocurrency is in consolidation and trading between $60.00 in the upper supply area and at $40.00 in the lower demand area of the range. A breakout at the upper supply area or breakdown at the lower demand area will occur hence patience is required before taking a position.
Source: Bitcoin Exchange Guide
New MoneroCrusher Data Analysis Shows ASIC Mining Once Again Dominates Monero XMR Network
According to a recent analysis published on Medium, Monero’s network seems to be dominated by ASIC mining once again. Around 85% of the network’s total hash rate is coming from ASIC mining hardware which was detected through the mining nonce forensics by the analysis author.
According to the analysis published by MoneroCrusher, the nonce distribution is supposed to be a random number, which can include anything between 0 and 2^32. However, depending on the mining gear that is being used, the mining algorithms start producing different patterns when it comes to choosing the number representing the nonces.
Nonces are random numbers that are a part of the mining process’ brute force, as explained by CryptoSlate.
During the mining process, the aim is to find a hash which will remain below the target number, which in turn changes in accordance with mining difficulty. The number is completely random, and the pick is influenced by several factors, such as the Merkle root, a timestamp, or the hash of the block that came before the current one.
As mentioned, the number is supposed to be smaller than the target number, and if this is the case, the miner ends up winning the block.
The problem with the use of ASICs, according to the analysis, is that they do not choose nonces randomly. Instead, they try to align the selection of nonces with the patterns that were observed earlier. Considering the fact that most of the Monero mining is now done by ASICs, it becomes clear that a large number of blocks are found in a particular nonce range, which indicates that the pattern exists and that it has been noticed.
Monero’s history with ASICs
Monero has quite a history with ASICs, and it even had a hard fork in April 2018 in order to try and disrupt them by introducing a new mining algorithm. At the time, the project’s hash rate went down from 1030 Megahashes per each second to only 158, which suggests that around 85% of the network was dominated by ASICs.
Mining quickly became profitable for non-ASIC users once again, and the Monero networkreached stability at around 480 Megahashes per second. Now, history appears to be repeating itself.
The analysis detected unusual behavior on the nonce chart once again, although it appears that the ASICs were better in concealing their impact this time. In other words, ASIC manufacturers learned from their experience, and have now started implementing more random nonce picking, which is, once again, noticeable on the nonce charts.
The discovery was made after MoneroCrusher noticed that the chosen nonces are more random than usual, as there is a natural pattern that Monero network itself follows. In an attempt to randomize the nonces and cover the trail, ASICs were making it too random, which led to the realization that they are, once again, dominating the network and taking the profits away from regular miners, which ended up leaving the network once more.
The network hash rate also surged by 255%, as the report claims, and it currently has around 810 Megahashes per second. The analysis also claims that this change started around 40 days ago, in late December 2018. According to MoneroCrusher’s estimate, there should be around 5,400 ASICs involved right now, which take up around 85.2% of the total miners.
This is a problem as it centralizes Monero, which can lead to other problems such as 51% attacks or other kinds of threats. While mining Bitcoin via ASICs has basically become accepted, and Ethereum network is still neutral regarding the issue, Monero is still strongly against this type of crypto mining. Since the change in the mining algorithm managed to defeat the ASICs last time (at least for a while), it is likely that a new hard fork might be performed soon.
Meanwhile, the Monero community is trying to come up with a more permanent solution on their GitHub. It should also be noted that a handful of the community members believes that ASICs should be allowed, although the majority continues to disagree.