Some days it feels like it’s all bad news for crypto. When the Federal Bureau says it’s not even a blip on the radar, the SEC delays another important decision, or the Chinese clamp down on content. The Ethereum scaling issue is putting everyone in a bad mood and regulatory uncertainty is causing confusion.
But, hey. If there’s anything we know about this crazy space, it’s that the situation can turn on a dime. Daily fluctuations and weak hands aside, a lot of hard work is being done. Countries like Switzerland and Malta are leading the way on regulation. Robust platforms are getting built. And those truly dedicated to crypto have hung up a “business as usual” sign despite the market slump.
But what’s in store for the year ahead and as we move into Q4 2018? Check out these top 7 predictions for 2019… Any thoughts of your own?
7. The Year of the Security Token
If 2017 was all about raising tons of money without fear of regulatory interference, the day of reckoning has come. In the United States, particularly, there’s an overall consensus from the SEC that most tokens are securities. And even if they aren’t, well, people just aren’t taking chances.
Therefore, STOs look set to replace ICOs in 2019, if not completely, then by a sizable amount. All US offerings will be held in compliance with SEC rules under Reg D 506 (b) or (c); Reg A+, or Reg CF. “The advent of security tokens in 2019 will be a big game changer, it will do to the traditional VC industry what email did to the post office,” says CEO and managing partner of Vellum Capital Eric Kovalak.
“Next year will be the year of the security token,” says Kyle Asman, partner, and co-founder of blockchain business advisory firm BX3 Capital. “People are tired of purchasing assets that aren’t tied to something with equity, a share of future profits, or a hard asset such as real estate.
6. Further Price Decline Before Upward Swing
You were probably hoping to hear about rainbows and butterflies and Bitcoin and Ethereum skyrocketing in price. Well, that isn’t necessarily going to happen. At least, not until a further drop first. According to Kovalak:
“The largest cryptocurrencies will test lower prices before new all-time highs. Would not be unreasonable to see Bitcoin go below $3,500 and I think at these levels the fundamental story becomes hugely attractive.” Are you ready for another drop? Better buckle your belt!
5. Decentralized Exchanges and Greater Security
It’s not only John McAfee who thinks that decentralized exchanges will take over as we move into the future. There’s always been something just not quite right about centralizing a peer-to-peer technology.
But with decentralized exchanges suffering from poor usability and transaction limitations, they’re still struggling to take on the incumbents. 2019 will change all that, not only making transacting cheaper but also keeping our crypto safer since having one single point of failure has been many an exchange’s undoing.
4. Enterprise Adoption
Ledger CEO Eric Larchevêque said, “Enterprises are really at the gates of cryptocurrencies. They are waiting to invest as much as they can.” And 2019 will see larger companies integrating blockchain technology into their business processes. They’ll start to see the benefits of cost savings, fraud reduction, and greater efficiency.
Khaled Khorshid, Co-Founder | Technology for Treon, says “I predict that 2019 will be similar to 1999 when Enterprise Systems like Oracle, Siebel, Clarify, SAP, Broadvision, and others brought a leap in companies’ efficiencies by automating and integrating business processes. Starting in 2019 Blockchain technology will take companies to the next level, from data management to the information age. DApps will be the focus.”
3. Institutional Investors Jump In
As regulation finally makes it to a point where traditional investors are comfortable enough to go all-in, the crypto space will explode. Projects that are similar to existing financial systems will gain in popularity first, including Bitcoin Futures and ETFs. Says Zhang Jian, Founder of Fcoin:
“2019 will be the year that traditional investors within the stock market will take the leap into digital assets. Compliance standards and regulations will begin maturing in their understanding of blockchain, both domestically and internationally. As these specific regulations materialize and roll out to the public, a new wave of market-makers will pour into the space.”
2. Scaling Solutions
“The most interesting ongoing development in cryptocurrency today is the prototyping and release of Layer 2 solutions such as Bitcoin’s Lightning Network and Ethereum’s Plasma,” says Co-Founder and CSO Dhruv Bansal of Unchained Capital. “It’s become clear that cryptocurrencies lucky enough to attract sufficient investors and users inevitably succumb to the twin afflictions of increasing fees and limited throughput.”
Solving most existing blockchains’ scalability issues can and must take front and center in the year ahead if they’re to stay in the race. Says Bansal, “Bitcoin’s Lightning Network was beta released to the public earlier this year and already has some 3000+ nodes with 10k+ payment channels between them, providing a capacity of more than $500k in BTC for near-instant peer-to-peer transactions.
Ethereum’s Plasma project has not yet launched but a new paper by lead developers Vitalik Buterin and Joseph Poon suggests much progress has been made on the structure and design of Ethereum’s answer to the Lightning Network.” Watch this space.
1. Mass Adoption
That 2019 will be the year of mass adoption of cryptocurrencies is hard for many to believe. Most of the wider US and UK public have never heard of blockchain or–if they have–think it’s something illegal.
Most likely, when we start to see wider usage, Asia will take the lead, although, it’s doubtful that blockchain solutions will have enough maturity for mass appeal in the coming months.
The general consensus from the crypto community seems to be that next year is too soon to see mass adoption of crypto. We first need scaling solutions, investor buy-in, enterprise integration, tighter security, and, of course, regulation. But who knows what’s in store for 2020? That’s a little harder to gauge.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Weekly Forecast: Slow And Steady Increase Likely
- There was a downside correction from the $10,954 swing high in bitcoin price against the US Dollar.
- The price is holding the $10,000 support and it could bounce back in the near term.
- There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $10,140 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
- The price could dip in the short term before it starts a fresh increase above $10,500 in the near term.
Bitcoin price is showing positive signs above $10,000 against the US Dollar. BTC could rise steadily as long as there is no close below the $10,000 support area.
Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis (BTC)
In the last weekly forecast, we saw bitcoin price holding the key $10,000 support area against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair climbed higher and traded above the $10,000 resistance area. Moreover, there was a break above the $10,800 level and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). However, the price failed to continue higher and topped below the $11,000 resistance.
A swing high was formed near $10,954 and recently the price started a fresh decline. It broke the key $10,500 support area and the 100 SMA. Moreover, the price spiked below the $10,000 support area. Finally, a swing low was formed near $9,903 and the price is currently correcting higher. It broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $10,954 high to $9,903 low.
However, the upward move is facing hurdles near the $10,400 and $10,500 levels. Additionally, the price is also struggling to climb above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $10,954 high to $9,903 low. If there is a break above the $10,450 and $10,500 levels, the price could continue to rise. The next key resistance is near the $10,800 level.
On the downside, there are many supports near the $10,100 and $10,000 levels. Additionally, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $10,140 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair. If there is a downside break below the trend line and the $10,000 support, the price could resume its decline.
Looking at the chart, bitcoin price seems to be consolidating in a contracting range below the $10,500 resistance. It might soon break the $10,500 resistance and continue higher. Conversely, a downside break below $10,000 could start a strong decline in the coming sessions.
4 hours MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is slowly moving back into the bullish zone.
4 hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently stable above the 50 level.
Major Support Level – $10,000
Major Resistance Level – $10,500
Bitcoin Price Stays Over $10K as Trader Warns Ethereum Chart Is ‘Ugly’
Bitcoin (BTC) price was consolidating $10,000 support on Aug. 23 after successfully shunning four figures during the day’s trading.
Market visualization. Source: Coin360
Bitcoin delivers firm bounce off $10K
Data from Coin360 show a newly strengthened Bitcoin managing to stay above the $10,000 marker, which it had crossed four times over the course of the week.
Currently in the upper end of a $300 trading corridor, BTC/USD circled $10,200 at press time, as analysts considered the opportunities ahead for fresh gains and less bearish volatility.
Bitcoin 7-day price chart. Source: Coin360
“The trend toward stability, an essential ingredient in a median of exchange, is accelerating Bitcoin’s advancement as a digital form of gold,” Bloomberg quoted its own Intelligence analyst, Mike McGlone, as saying on Thursday.
Sentiment had waned earlier after Bitcoin appeared to be heading broadly lower. Analysts voiced concern about support, arguing a further loss could trigger dives to as low as $7,000.
“In the short term, I’m a little bit cautious,” CNBC’s active Bitcoin bug Brian Kelly told the network on Friday. He added that at future lower levels, the buying opportunity for BTC accumulators was unparalleled.
“When people start saying ‘Is Bitcoin dead again?’ — that’s when I get real bullish,” he added.
Altcoins rally but Ether worries loom large
A Bitcoin breakdown was also still on cards for regular commentator Josh Rager, but for the short term, it was top altcoin Ether (ETH) which presented more worries.
Heading a troubled altcoin market, ETH had circled multi-year lows against BTC before rising above 0.019 on Thursday. For Rager, however, the general trend is down, and he advised not to buy under current conditions.
“If BTC breaks down to $8ks, ETH will follow with a break under $150,” he summarized in a fresh update.
“ETH chart is ugly,” he added.
ETH/BTC briefly outperformed BTC/USD in daily progress Friday, rising 3.7% to $192 against the latter’s 2.8% gains.
Ether 7-day price chart. Source: Coin360
Other altcoins in the top twenty meanwhile delivered even stronger performances, such as Bitcoin Cash (BCH) on 5.35% and EOS (EOS) on 6.8% daily gains.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap also staged a recovery versus Thursday, rising to $266 billion. Bitcoin’s share dipped slightly to 68.4%.
Crypto Inflation Figures Show Why Bitcoin is King Above Others Like ZEC and XRP
The high inflation figures for altcoins like ZCash (ZEC) and XRP are providing yet another basis for the “bitcoin is king” argument.
Indiscriminate Dumping Hurting Altcoin Value
Tweeting on Friday (September 13, 2019), economic and crypto analyst, Alex Krüger highlighted the relationship between high inflation figures and poor price performance for certain altcoins.
Krüger’s tweet was based on figures published ViewBase — a platform that provides information on ‘coin’ dumps.
Whether by fixed or fluctuating schedules, altcoins like ZEC and XRP are showing significantly higher inflation figures. ZEC, for example, currently has an annualized inflation rate of more than 35%.
More than 7,000 ZEC tokens are ‘minted’ per day. This figure amounts to about 0.098% dilution of the circulating supply, much higher than cryptos with daily coin additions via mining.
Earlier in the year, Zcsh disclosed an inflation bug that was capable of creating an infinite number of tokens.
On the fixed inflation end of the spectrum, Ripple releases 1 billion XRP every quarter. XRP has an annualized inflation of close to 30%.
As previously reported by Bitcoinist, some XRP proponents have expressed displeasure with the constant dumping of the token by Ripple.
Earlier in the week, the company transferred 100 million XRP (about $26 million) to former CTO Jed McCaleb sparking fears of more sell-offs.
Bitcoin is Separate from the Rest
For bitcoin, the situation is completely different, with the top-ranked cryptocurrency sporting an inflation rate of 3.97%.
After the 2020 halving, this figure will be cut in half taking bitcoin’s inflation even lower than the current Federal Reserve interest rate.
Compared to bitcoin’s lean inflation figures, altcoins like ZEC and XRP seem like penny stocks whose value is constantly declining.
Bitcoin is up more than 170% since the start of the year while ZEC and XRP have moved over 25% in the opposite direction.
Together, XRP and ZEC are among some of the worst-performing cryptos of 2019. Altcoins, in general, have endured a miserable 2019, continuing the pains for bag holders from 2018’s bear market.
Meanwhile, commentators are calling a new all-time high (ATH) for bitcoin before the end of 2019. The emerging consensus is that the price action for the top-ranked crypto has entered another zone of parabolic advance.
Thus, a move for BTC towards its previous ATH would mean a further leg-up that could go as high as $30,000 in 2021.