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Bitcoin Price Analysis Feb.22: Consolidation Time – Will BTC Be Able To Gain Momentum For a $4K Breakup?

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Over the past two days since our last price analysis, Bitcoin had been consolidating between a tight range of the support and resistance levels of $3850 and $3950. This was anticipated following the latest decent bullish move. So far, it seems that the correction to is considered healthy.

Besides the Bitcoin chart, the BitFinex open short positions (the following third chart) seem to be at an exciting point: following the breakdown of the long-term one year ascending trend-line, BTC shorts found support around the 19K support line. However, during the recent hours the number of shorts is decreasing towards the 19K mark – as of now, there are 19,260 BTC of open positions. Will it get choppy as the shorts get closer to 19K?

The overall picture hasn’t changed much since our previous BTC analysis, except from the daily chart’s Stochastic RSI oscillator which had crossed over.

Looking at the 1-day & 4-hour charts

– Support and resistance levels: From above, breaking up the $3950 area, would likely to send Bitcoin to retest the $4050 resistance, before getting to the significant $4200 level.

– From below: Resistance turned support areas at $3800 – $3850 (along with 38.2% Fib retracement level at $3830), $3700 area (along with 61.8% Fib retracement level at $3723), and $3600 famous area (along with MA-50 of the 1-day chart).

– The daily chart’s RSI: Trades pretty healthy around the buyers’ zone. However, the Stochastic RSI oscillator had recently crossed over at the overbought area. This could trigger a correction to the mentioned support levels above.

– The daily trading volume had been decreasing over the days. With not much movement it was expected.

– As mentioned before, BitFinex’s open short positions number is trading close to the horizontal support line. By looking on the open long positions, which are decreasing, we can safely say that it doesn’t seem like a price manipulation (as it happened before in crypto).

BTC/USD BitStamp 4-Hour chart

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BTC/USD BitStamp 1-Day chart

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BTC Open Short Positions (BitFinex)

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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView. Technical analysis tools by Coinigy.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Hash Rate alcanza 102 quintillones en el hito histórico de la red

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) network hash rate has passed a record 102 quintillion hashes for the first time in history in a historic milestone for the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin adds another zero to hash rate

As data from monitoring resource Blockchain confirmed on Sept. 18, hash rate, ultimately a function of how secure the Bitcoin network is, has reached a high of 102.8 quintillion hashes.

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Bitcoin network hash rate. Source: Blockchain

The achievement follows a string of records for the metric this year, Cointelegraph reporting on various stages of its expansion over the past few months. 

Hash rate refers to the amount of computing power involved in processing Bitcoin transactions. The higher the number of hashes, the more implied competition there is among miners to obtain the block reward. 

Since December 2018, the hash rate has progressed from its recent low of 31 quintillion hashes per second, equating to the progress of 230%.

Bitcoin proponents eye price implications

Current growth has excited commentators, despite coming in tandem with a moderate decline in Bitcoin price. 

As many noted, new upward action for hash rate tends may hint at future price growth. Hash rate began growing in January after several months of decline, with price then following in April. 

Commenting on the current rate of growth, Lightning Torch organizer Hodlonaut said the figures spoke to underlying confidence among miners.

“Last readjustment period (2016 blocks, or around 2 weeks) increased 10.38%. We are about half way through the current readjustment period, and on track for another 11.85% increase,” he forecast.

Others have already given more bullish predictions. Max Keiser, a firm believer in Bitcoin’s prowess over altcoins, has frequently doubled down on his depiction of giant surges in both hash rate and price in the near future.

Source fxstreet

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Bitcoin needs to be ‘better regulated’ before it is traded on major exchanges

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Speaking at a conference today hosted by CNBC and Institutional Investor, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton said that bitcoin would need better regulation before being listed for trading on major traditional exchanges like NYSE or Nasdaq.

“If [investors] think there’s the same rigor around that price discovery as there is on the Nasdaq or New York Stock Exchange … they are sorely mistaken,” said Clayton. “We have to get to a place where we can be confident that trading is better regulated.”

Clayton’s comments come a few days after VanEck and SolidX’s decision to withdraw their bitcoin ETF proposal. Earlier this month, Clayton also said that while “progress is being made” on the bitcoin ETF, bitcoin businesses still need to address some of the SEC’s lingering concerns, citing crypto custody and the threat of price manipulation on unregulated exchanges.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Crashes Below $10,000 Days Ahead Of Bakkt Futures Launch

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Bitcoin (BTC) has declined well below $10,000 just before the most anticipated Bakkt futures launch. This has unnerved a lot of the bulls that were hoping for a rally to the moon by Monday. However, when everyone starts thinking the same way, it is best to think the opposite. Remember, Bakkt is “scheduled” to be launched on Sep 23, 2019.

It was “scheduled” to be launched on December 12, 2018 as well and if you had been hoping in November 2018 that $6,000 was going to hold just because Bakkt was going to be launched then you would have made quite a loss as the price nosedived to $3,130 from there in a matter of weeks. So, what does this recent crash mean in light of what has happened in the past?

The market makers were waiting for investors to enter margined longs. They gave them plenty of time to do that as the price consolidating and doing nothing much. So, they kind of forced traders into making the decision now instead of waiting to enter a trade after the breakout because these past few days traders have been made to be comfortable buying into sideways action in anticipation of a pump as we saw in the case of Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins. Most of them entered leveraged longs on BTC/USD in the hopes of profiting off a potential Bakkt rally. Those that had their stops just below the symmetrical triangle were shaken out but there are a lot more stops to be run just yet. The market makers might want to give investors another chance to long these dips so they can trap them again.

Bullish or bearish doesn’t matter from the market makers’ perspective. They are in the business of shaking out the traders hoping for easy money in this market. As I have said before this is not legal and if someone were to do this in the stock market they would find the SEC knocking on their door. However, anything is possible in this market in the absence of regulation. If we look at the 1H chart for Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), we can see that it broke out of a falling wedge and is now primed for further upside.

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) rises when either Bitcoin (BTC) is planning on outpacing the market at a certain point or we are primed for further downside and Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to hold its ground better than other coins. In both cases, this rising dominance in Bitcoin (BTC) does not bode well for the altcoin market which has yet to experience serious pain. There are a lot of useless projects in the altcoin market and it is only a matter of time before we see a strong downtrend that shakes out most of such projects. The fact that Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) just broke out of a falling wedge and has now begun an uptrend is a testament to the fact that recent hopes of an altcoin season were just orchestrated attempts by the big players to lure retail investors into buying their altcoin bags before the next crash. 

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