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Tom Lee of Fundstrat: Bitcoin Bulls to Return in 2019

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Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors has once again given cryptocurrency market predictions. The long-term Bitcoin bull stated earlier that sentiment will once again turn positive during 2019.

Lee draws on technical, macro, and fundamental indicators to make these conclusions. However, we all know that he has been wrong on more than one occasion when it comes to Bitcoin price.

Tom Lee: Bitcoin Cash “Fork Wars” Terrible for Investor Confidence

Tom Lee, the co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors appeared earlier today on a CNBC segment titled, “Futures Now”. There, he was asked about his outlook for the Bitcoin (BTC) and general cryptocurrency markets.

Lee opined that 2019 was a year of “repair” for BTC. He stated that the Bitcoin Cash hard fork and the subsequent “fork wars” as he refers to threats made by Craig S. Wright to 51% attack the Bitcoin ABC side of the split out of existence had been massively detrimental for investor confidence.

During the so-called “fork wars”, the price of Bitcoin dropped steeply from the low $6,000 range it had held for many weeks down to just above $3,000. Lee therefore expects this range to serve as massive resistance on the way back up.

However, the BTC optimist did highlight multiple positive factors that he believes will allow the market to soar when sentiment does finally improve. These included previous macro headwinds – the fact that the dollar performed so well in 2018, for example; infrastructure improvements – the launch of Fidelity’s custody solution and the Bakktplatform; and finally, technical indicators – Bitcoin price is now comfortably bouncing along the 200 day moving average.

The upcoming launch of various crypto products from multi-trillion-dollar Fidelity has many excited.

The conversation then turned briefly to Venezuela. Lee pointed out that people there were starting to use cryptocurrency thanks to the hyper-inflated bolivar:

“Turmoil is causing adoption to grow.”

Lee: JPM Coin is No Competition for Bitcoin

When going through the various positive factors that would boost the Bitcoin price when sentiment finally improved, Lee mentioned the launch of digital currencies by some of the planet’s largest financial institutionsand companies. This prompted a question about whether such centralised digital assets posed a threat to Bitcoin’s value proposition. The research analyst replied that he did not think that it represented competition and that Bitcoin would remain at the centre of the digital currency universe:

“It’s not a threat to Bitcoin because it doesn’t offer upside but it probably makes other stable-coin projects less useful… Bitcoin is essentially starting to look like a reserve currency for digital currencies in general.”

Finally, Lee was pushed for a timeline for market sentiment to improve. The Fundstrat co-founder stated that he felt it needed perhaps five or six months more to recover from the plunge into the $3,000-4,000 range, which he attributes to the Bitcoin Cash fork last year.

It is worth remembering that Tom Lee has been spectacularly wrong about BTC price predictions in the past. He spent most of 2018 calling for BTC to exceed its previous all-time high set at the end of 2017. This, of course, never happened. His new outlook appears more measured by contrast and the analyst has been aloof from giving precise figures this time round too.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Weekly Forecast: Slow And Steady Increase Likely

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  • There was a downside correction from the $10,954 swing high in bitcoin price against the US Dollar.
  • The price is holding the $10,000 support and it could bounce back in the near term.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $10,140 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The price could dip in the short term before it starts a fresh increase above $10,500 in the near term.

Bitcoin price is showing positive signs above $10,000 against the US Dollar. BTC could rise steadily as long as there is no close below the $10,000 support area.

Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis (BTC)

In the last weekly forecast, we saw bitcoin price holding the key $10,000 support area against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair climbed higher and traded above the $10,000 resistance area. Moreover, there was a break above the $10,800 level and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). However, the price failed to continue higher and topped below the $11,000 resistance.

A swing high was formed near $10,954 and recently the price started a fresh decline. It broke the key $10,500 support area and the 100 SMA. Moreover, the price spiked below the $10,000 support area. Finally, a swing low was formed near $9,903 and the price is currently correcting higher. It broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $10,954 high to $9,903 low.

However, the upward move is facing hurdles near the $10,400 and $10,500 levels. Additionally, the price is also struggling to climb above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $10,954 high to $9,903 low. If there is a break above the $10,450 and $10,500 levels, the price could continue to rise. The next key resistance is near the $10,800 level.

On the downside, there are many supports near the $10,100 and $10,000 levels. Additionally, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $10,140 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair. If there is a downside break below the trend line and the $10,000 support, the price could resume its decline.

Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis (BTC) Chart

Looking at the chart, bitcoin price seems to be consolidating in a contracting range below the $10,500 resistance. It might soon break the $10,500 resistance and continue higher. Conversely, a downside break below $10,000 could start a strong decline in the coming sessions.

Technical indicators

4 hours MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is slowly moving back into the bullish zone.

4 hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently stable above the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $10,000

Major Resistance Level – $10,500

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Bitcoin Price Stays Over $10K as Trader Warns Ethereum Chart Is ‘Ugly’

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Bitcoin (BTC) price was consolidating $10,000 support on Aug. 23 after successfully shunning four figures during the day’s trading.

Market visualization

Market visualization. Source: Coin360

Bitcoin delivers firm bounce off $10K

Data from Coin360 show a newly strengthened Bitcoin managing to stay above the $10,000 marker, which it had crossed four times over the course of the week. 

Currently in the upper end of a $300 trading corridor, BTC/USD circled $10,200 at press time, as analysts considered the opportunities ahead for fresh gains and less bearish volatility. 

Bitcoin 7-day price chart

Bitcoin 7-day price chart. Source: Coin360

“The trend toward stability, an essential ingredient in a median of exchange, is accelerating Bitcoin’s advancement as a digital form of gold,” Bloomberg quoted its own Intelligence analyst, Mike McGlone, as saying on Thursday.

Sentiment had waned earlier after Bitcoin appeared to be heading broadly lower. Analysts voiced concern about support, arguing a further loss could trigger dives to as low as $7,000.

“In the short term, I’m a little bit cautious,” CNBC’s active Bitcoin bug Brian Kelly told the network on Friday. He added that at future lower levels, the buying opportunity for BTC accumulators was unparalleled.

“When people start saying ‘Is Bitcoin dead again?’ — that’s when I get real bullish,” he added.

Altcoins rally but Ether worries loom large

A Bitcoin breakdown was also still on cards for regular commentator Josh Rager, but for the short term, it was top altcoin Ether (ETH) which presented more worries.

Heading a troubled altcoin market, ETH had circled multi-year lows against BTC before rising above 0.019 on Thursday. For Rager, however, the general trend is down, and he advised not to buy under current conditions.

“If BTC breaks down to $8ks, ETH will follow with a break under $150,” he summarized in a fresh update.

“ETH chart is ugly,” he added.

ETH/BTC briefly outperformed BTC/USD in daily progress Friday, rising 3.7% to $192 against the latter’s 2.8% gains. 

Ether 7-day price chart

Ether 7-day price chart. Source: Coin360

Other altcoins in the top twenty meanwhile delivered even stronger performances, such as Bitcoin Cash (BCH) on 5.35% and EOS (EOS) on 6.8% daily gains. 

The overall cryptocurrency market cap also staged a recovery versus Thursday, rising to $266 billion. Bitcoin’s share dipped slightly to 68.4%.

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Crypto Inflation Figures Show Why Bitcoin is King Above Others Like ZEC and XRP

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The high inflation figures for altcoins like ZCash (ZEC) and XRP are providing yet another basis for the “bitcoin is king” argument.


Indiscriminate Dumping Hurting Altcoin Value

Tweeting on Friday (September 13, 2019), economic and crypto analyst, Alex Krüger highlighted the relationship between high inflation figures and poor price performance for certain altcoins.

Krüger’s tweet was based on figures published ViewBase — a platform that provides information on ‘coin’ dumps.

Whether by fixed or fluctuating schedules, altcoins like ZEC and XRP are showing significantly higher inflation figures. ZEC, for example, currently has an annualized inflation rate of more than 35%.

More than 7,000 ZEC tokens are ‘minted’ per day. This figure amounts to about 0.098% dilution of the circulating supply, much higher than cryptos with daily coin additions via mining.

Earlier in the year, Zcsh disclosed an inflation bug that was capable of creating an infinite number of tokens.

On the fixed inflation end of the spectrum, Ripple releases 1 billion XRP every quarter. XRP has an annualized inflation of close to 30%.

As previously reported by Bitcoinist, some XRP proponents have expressed displeasure with the constant dumping of the token by Ripple.

Earlier in the week, the company transferred 100 million XRP (about $26 million) to former CTO Jed McCaleb sparking fears of more sell-offs.

Bitcoin is Separate from the Rest

For bitcoin, the situation is completely different, with the top-ranked cryptocurrency sporting an inflation rate of 3.97%.

After the 2020 halving, this figure will be cut in half taking bitcoin’s inflation even lower than the current Federal Reserve interest rate.

Compared to bitcoin’s lean inflation figures, altcoins like ZEC and XRP seem like penny stocks whose value is constantly declining.

Bitcoin is up more than 170% since the start of the year while ZEC and XRP have moved over 25% in the opposite direction.

Together, XRP and ZEC are among some of the worst-performing cryptos of 2019. Altcoins, in general, have endured a miserable 2019, continuing the pains for bag holders from 2018’s bear market.

Meanwhile, commentators are calling a new all-time high (ATH) for bitcoin before the end of 2019. The emerging consensus is that the price action for the top-ranked crypto has entered another zone of parabolic advance.

Thus, a move for BTC towards its previous ATH would mean a further leg-up that could go as high as $30,000 in 2021.

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