Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors has once again given cryptocurrency market predictions. The long-term Bitcoin bull stated earlier that sentiment will once again turn positive during 2019.
Lee draws on technical, macro, and fundamental indicators to make these conclusions. However, we all know that he has been wrong on more than one occasion when it comes to Bitcoin price.
Tom Lee: Bitcoin Cash “Fork Wars” Terrible for Investor Confidence
Tom Lee, the co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors appeared earlier today on a CNBC segment titled, “Futures Now”. There, he was asked about his outlook for the Bitcoin (BTC) and general cryptocurrency markets.
Lee opined that 2019 was a year of “repair” for BTC. He stated that the Bitcoin Cash hard fork and the subsequent “fork wars” as he refers to threats made by Craig S. Wright to 51% attack the Bitcoin ABC side of the split out of existence had been massively detrimental for investor confidence.
During the so-called “fork wars”, the price of Bitcoin dropped steeply from the low $6,000 range it had held for many weeks down to just above $3,000. Lee therefore expects this range to serve as massive resistance on the way back up.
The conversation then turned briefly to Venezuela. Lee pointed out that people there were starting to use cryptocurrency thanks to the hyper-inflated bolivar:
“Turmoil is causing adoption to grow.”
Lee: JPM Coin is No Competition for Bitcoin
When going through the various positive factors that would boost the Bitcoin price when sentiment finally improved, Lee mentioned the launch of digital currencies by some of the planet’s largest financial institutionsand companies. This prompted a question about whether such centralised digital assets posed a threat to Bitcoin’s value proposition. The research analyst replied that he did not think that it represented competition and that Bitcoin would remain at the centre of the digital currency universe:
“It’s not a threat to Bitcoin because it doesn’t offer upside but it probably makes other stable-coin projects less useful… Bitcoin is essentially starting to look like a reserve currency for digital currencies in general.”
Finally, Lee was pushed for a timeline for market sentiment to improve. The Fundstrat co-founder stated that he felt it needed perhaps five or six months more to recover from the plunge into the $3,000-4,000 range, which he attributes to the Bitcoin Cash fork last year.
It is worth remembering that Tom Lee has been spectacularly wrong about BTC price predictions in the past. He spent most of 2018 calling for BTC to exceed its previous all-time high set at the end of 2017. This, of course, never happened. His new outlook appears more measured by contrast and the analyst has been aloof from giving precise figures this time round too.
Bitcoin will drop to $3,500 before we see a major bull run, says trader
While Bitcoin has managed to hold above $4,000 according to Coinmarketcap, one trader believes that BTC will drop to $3,500 before the next bull run.
Speaking to CCN, crypto trader known as The Crypto Dog in the community said that it’s still possible Bitcoin sinks to $3,500 in the short term, adding that market conditions haven’t changed over the last several days.
“I think we could still see $35XX,” the trader said, adding, it [Bitcoin] hasn’t changed much. It wasn’t a particularly significant move. It bounced at a clear support, but there’s been no positive reaction yet. If this support holds, I expect a sweep of the highs near $4,100-$4,140.
“Decent chance we just saw that ‘one more leg up.’ I greatly reduced exposure up here above $4,000. Waiting for $3,5XX for long entries. I’d love an opportunity to short $4,1XX, but not sure if we’ll see it,” he said.
Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain momentum is likely the reason for cautious optimism shown by traders and analysts.
Recently, technical analyst knew as DonAlt explained that we can’t safely conclude the bear market is over until Bitcoin breaks out above $4,600.
Bitcoin SV [BSV] Price Analysis: Bears dominate market as token’s downtrend continues
Bitcoin SV [BSV] continued its bearish run on the back of the collective market dropping below the $140 billion mark. After two successive bullish waves in the past week, the coin market turned red.
At press time, the BCH hardfork fell against the US dollar by 1.26 percent, and was trading at $65.88. The market cap of the coin stood at $1.16 billion, trailing Cardano [ADA] by over $220 million.
Bitforex took the top spots with respect to BSV trade volume, via the trading pairs BSV/USDT and BSV/BTC. The pairs accounted for 12.28 and 12.17 percent, respectively. Other notable exchanges on the list were HitBTC, IDAX, and IDCM.
The one-hour BSV chart showed a massive downtrend stretching from $68.71 to $66.32, with the coin dropping further below. The sole uptrend was prior to this drop when the coin rose from $67.71 to $68.71.
Bitcoin SV found immediate support at $64.55, which the coin was hovering above. The immediate resistance level stood at $68.77.
The Bollinger Bands pointed to a massive increase in volatility as the price declined. The Moving Average line indicated a bearish swing.
The Chaikin Money Flow tool showed a decrease in the money inflow to BSV tokens as the CMF line was below 0.
The Awesome Oscillator showed a significant decrease in short term market momentum, but the concluding bars being green indicated an imminent bullish change.
Bitcoin SV saw two downtrends, with the first downtrend shaving the price from $75.71 to $67.15. The second downtrend pulled the price down from $70.39 to $67.65.
The coin found immediate support at $61.72, which the coin touched in February. Bitcoin SV’s immediate resistance level stood at $75.65.
The Parabolic SAR indicated a bearish market, as the dotted lines were above the coin’s trend line.
The Relative Strength Index showed a notable decrease in investor interest as the RSI dropped down from 55.65 to 46.38, at press time.
The MACD continued projecting bearish signs as the MACD line pushed below the Signal line.
Bitcoin SV failed to hold on to the bulls as the coin’s price declined below the $70 mark. In the short term, the coin’s volatility was high, while the money inflow dropped. Short-term momentum was negative, further pointing to the resoluteness of the bears. In the long-term, the MACD and the Parabolic SAR indicated a bearish market.
Bitcoin Price Drops Back Below $4K But Bull Outlook Still Intact
- Bitcoin failed to capitalize on a bull breakout above $4,040 yesterday, but the short-term outlook remains bullish as the higher-lows pattern is still intact.
- A convincing break above the three-day chart resistance of $4,040 still looks likely and could be followed by a rally toward the recent high of $4,190.
- The immediate outlook would turn bearish if prices find acceptance below $3,920 (previous day’s low). A bearish close, if confirmed, could yield a drop to $3,700–$3,658 (Feb. 27 low).
Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped back from levels over $4,000, but the short-term outlook will remain bullish as long as prices are holding above key support at $3,920.
The crypto market leader jumped to a 25-day high of $4,055 yesterday, having secured a bullish UTC close above the psychological hurdle of $4,000 on Wednesday, going by Bitstamp data. The breakout above the crucial three-day chart resistance of $4,040, however, was short-lived with prices falling back to a five-day low of $3,920 before closing the day at $3,974.
Notably, the negative price action engulfed the trading range seen in the previous four days, which is widely considered an early sign of bull exhaustion.
That said, the path of least resistance is still to the higher side, as the bounce from lows near $3,920 has left the bullish higher lows pattern intact along the trendline connecting the Feb. 8 and Mar.4 lows.
For the immediate outlook to turn bearish, the engulfing price action seen yesterday needs a strong follow through in the form of a convincing break below $3,920.
As of writing, BTC is trading at $3,980, representing a 1.28 percent drop on a 24-hour basis.
On the daily chart, BTC created a bearish outside reversal candle yesterday as trading began on an optimistic note but ended with pessimism.
A bullish-to-bearish trend change, however, would be confirmed only if prices close below $3,920 (low of the bearish candle) today. A move below $3,920 would confirm a downside break of the ascending trendline and shift risk in favor of a deeper drop toward the Feb. 27 low of $3,658.
On the higher side, a break above $4,055 would reinforce the short-term bullish setup and could fuel a rally toward the recent high of $4,190.
The odds of a rally toward $4,235 (inverse head-and-shoulders neckline) would strengthen if the current three-day candle closes (today) above $4,040, validating the bullish engulfing candle created in three days to March 16.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.