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No more Bitcoin futures on CBOE, crypto market doesn’t care

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  • The exchange won’t list new contracts in March.
  • The market shows no reaction whatsoever.

Cboe Futures Exchange (CFE) announced that they wouldn’t launch new Bitcoinfutures this month. According to the statement, the company needs to review its approach to the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

“CFE is assessing its approach with respect to how it plans to continue to offer digital asset derivatives for trading. While it considers its next steps, CFE does not currently intend to list additional XBT futures contracts for trading,” – the company explained.

Meanwhile, the existing Bitcoin futures will remain available for trading, which means that the most recent

contract XBTM19 will expire in June 2019.

The decision may be prompted by low trading volumes. According to the research conducted by TradeBlock at the beginning of February, investor interest towards Bitcoin futures on CME and Cboe is fading away.

It is worth noting that these US-based platforms offer cash-settled futures, which means that upon the contract’s expiration, one party pays the other the difference between the spot and futures prices in USD.

This news failed to trigger any meaningful reaction on the cryptocurrency markets as all significant coins including Bitcoin continued trading in narrow ranges. Obviously, at this stage, the market is dominated by technical and speculative factors.
 

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Bitcoin (BTC) Bulls Are Not Safe After Recent Price Bounce: Josh Rager

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Trader Josh Rager has shared his take on Bitcoin’s recent price uptick that revived the hopes of the bulls to once again test the $9,000. 

Rager tweeted that BTC is not safe unless it gets back to the upper-$8,000 level that will open the door for yet another leg up. Until then, bears and bulls continue to play tug-of-war without any clear winner. 

At this point, he doesn’t rule out

that the bounce from the $8,200 support might simply be a sucker’s rally that will be followed by a break to the $8,000 level, which is why impatient traders should exercise caution.   

Bitcoin Price

image by @Josh_Rager

Earlier today, trading legend Peter Brandt predicted that current correction could hold despite the fact that the bears expect this rally to be short-lived.

At press time, BTC is changing hands at $8,490, struggling to break above the nearest resistance level.  

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Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP: Bears take over and draw a bloody moon

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  • Despite appearances, Bitcoin is the asset with the best risk/benefit ratio.
  • The current falls are adjusted to the ranges of the previous rise.
  • Downward momentum expires in the first half of February.

Cryptographer and computer scientist Nick Szabo, has presented in his Twitter account a study on the “risk-benefit” ratio of different assets. The study used a Sharpe Ratio over four years Hodl period.

According to this study, Bitcoin is the best positioned, maintaining an average ratio of 3 in the last four years. Behind them are the US stocks, with an average ratio of 2, and gold, which has gone from the last positions in 2016 to the third in the 2020 ratio.

The worst placed asset category is emerging currencies, which with an average ratio of -2 lags far behind the others.

The crypto board reaches the end of the week with the bears securing the market control they gained yesterday in mid-session.

The structure of the moving averages already indicated that the upward turning process that began on January 10th was going to be quite time-consuming. The magnitude of the downward movements in the second half of 2019 had separated the moving averages a lot. 

ETH/BTC 4-Hours Chart

ETH/BTC is trading at the price level of 0.01895 and is down by -1.65%. On the 4-hour chart, the spot price is piercing the EMA50. If Ethereum loses this support, the drop will accelerate to the 0.0185 level.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at 0.0197, then the second at 0.0200 and the third one at 0.0205.

Below the current price, the first support level is at 0.0185, then the second at 0.0185 and the third one at 0.0182.

The MACD on the 4-hour chart is supported directly by the indicator’s zero levels. The moving averages are sloping downward and are moving away from it, suggesting an acceleration of the trend. 

The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows the bearish-bought pair in equilibrium. Both sides of the market are above the ADX line, a setup that facilitates violent resolutions.


BTC/USD 4-Hours Chart

BTC/USD is currently trading at $8243 and confirms the loss of support at $8400. The EMA50 and SMA100 averages continue to fall and forecast that the end of the downtrend could be on the first week of February.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $8400, then the second at $8500 and the third one at $8800.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $8200, then the second at $8000 and the third one at $7900.

The MACD on the 4-hour chart is losing its downward slope, indicating the end of the impulse phase of the

movement. The terminal phase can easily take the price below $8000.

The DMI on the 4-hour chart confirms the end of the bearish momentum phase. Bears are preparing to drill down the ADX line. The bulls are very reactive to any upward movement and break the downward trend.


ETH/USD 4-Hours Chart

ETH/USD is currently trading at $156.09 after finding support at the SMA100. The support point coincides with the 38.2% level of the Fibonacci retracement system and the same system indicates that the 50% level at $150 is very likely to be visited.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $161, then the second at $165 and the third at $170.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $155, then the second at $150 and the third one at $143 (61.8% level of the Fibonacci retracement system).

The MACD on the 4-hour chart is increasing its openness and is tilting further down, so we can expect an acceleration of the price’s decline.

The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows that the bearish trend is increasing. The bulls are not reacting and continue to lose strength.

XRP/USD 4-Hours Chart

XRP/USD is currently trading at $0.215 and accelerating the downward movement that began this week. The current price coincides with the 50% level of the Fibonacci retracement system. The next support, according to this tool, is at the 0.205 price level, 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement system.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $0.218, then the second at $0.223 and the third one at $0.235.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $0.205, then the second at $0.20 and the third one at $0.19.

The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows an acceleration of the downward movement. The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows an acceleration of the downward movement.

The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows that the bearish trend is increasing and the bearish momentum is strong. The bulls are not reacting and continue to lose momentum.


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US Deficit Will Be at Least 6 Times Bitcoin Market Cap — Every Year

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The average budget deficit of the United States will “never” be less than $1 trillion per year in the future — or 4.5% of GDP, worrying data on the fiat economy shows. 

Compiled by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and shared by crypto hedge fund manager Travis Kling on Jan. 21, statistics reveal that the annual deficit is set to hit $12.2 trillion for the entire 2020s.

Deficit as GDP share up 55% in 50 years

“Such deficits would be significantly larger than the 2.9 percent of GDP that deficits averaged over the past 50 years,” the CBO itself commented when it released the projections last September. 

CBO

U.S. average budget deficit 1969-2029. Source: CBO

$1 trillion is more than six times the market cap of Bitcoin (BTC) and four times the market cap of all cryptocurrencies combined. 

The data concerned Kling, who like other Bitcoin proponents has drawn clear distinctions between the cryptocurrency and fiat currency. 

As Cointelegraph reported, the deficit is not the only worrying aspect of U.S. economic policy to surface in numbers in recent months. Late last year, it emerged that the country’s total debt is now higher than ever at $23 trillion, while the world’s total debt is $255 trillion — or $12.1 million for each Bitcoin.

In simple terms, budget deficits occur when the value of a

country’s spending exceeds the value of its revenues. As Kling notes, governments can use fiat to plug the difference, allowing them to increase the money supply which they can then direct as desired.

Over the New Year period, the Federal Reserve added $425 billion to the dollar supply.

Printing fiat to plug deficits “never ended well”

The process has its roots in Keynesian economics, which calls for states and central banks to “manage” the money supply instead of allowing the market to decide prices for goods and services. 

Such a setup creates a problem known as the “Impossible Trinity” — attempting to achieve free capital flows, a fixed exchange rate between currencies and independent monetary policy. 

“Imagine the allure as a politician of promising your constituents all the spending they want, w/o ever having to raise taxes. Spend more AND cut taxes! There’s no inflation!” Kling wrote on Twitter.

He concluded: 

“This has been tried many times before in monetary history and there is no example where it ended well.”

As Saifedean Ammous explains in his book, “The Bitcoin Standard,” preventing “meddling” by governments and central banks would reverse the processes which lead to phenomena such as deficits. This is because fiat would cease to be money “by decree” as its name implies, and would instead operate without a central authority, similar to Bitcoin.

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