- Bitcoin’s daily trading volume remains elevated at highs above $10 billion, going against the technical theory that investor interest tends to drop during periods of consolidation. Therefore, the ongoing sideways trading near $3,900 may end with a bull breakout toward the recent high of $4,207.
- Trading volumes have been strong since the corrective rally kicked off in early February, so a range breakdown looks unlikely.
- Prices could first see a drop below $3,865 (March 12 low) due to the extended consolidation. That said, the short-term outlook would turn bearish only if the higher low of $3,743 created on March 3 is breached
Bitcoin’s current period of price consolidation may end with a bull breakout, price-volume analysis indicates.
While the cryptomarket leader is lacking a clear directional bias for the tenth straight day, 24-hour trading volume remains elevated near the 10-month high of $10.75 billion seen on Feb. 24, contradicting the popular theory that investor interest drops in a rangebound market.
As a result, the pullback from recent highs near $4,200 appears likely to be nothing more than a bull breather and BTC could soon draw bids.
Validating that argument is the fact that the recovery rally from the lows near $3,400 seen on Feb. 8 was backed by high volumes. Daily trading levels jumped above their 50-day moving average 35 days ago and have remained above the key metric ever since – a feat last observed during the height of the bull market in the third quarter of 2017, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Hence, the probability of BTC ending the ongoing consolidation with a strong move to the downside is quite low.
As of writing, BTC is trading at $3,930, representing a 0.5 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, according to CoinMarketCap. Twenty-four-hour trading volume is seen at $10.62 billion, while the 50-day moving average of daily trading volume is seen at $7.615 billion.
As seen above, BTC jumped 7.5 percent on Feb. 8 (arrow), invalidating the immediate bearish setup. The strong move was backed by a hike in trading volumes above their 50-day MA. Since then, volume bars have consistently printed above the key average, validating the corrective rally from $3,400.
The setup looks even more bullish if we take into account the higher lows and higher highs on volume chart. Recent price pullbacks were accompanied by a drop in volumes (lack of bear support), explaining the weak follow-through to the rising channel breakdown witnessed on Feb. 24.
The failed breakdown coupled with elevated volumes amid price consolidation indicates scope for a re-test of $4,208 (Feb. 24 high).
That said, the long period of consolidation could test the bulls’ resolve, and a brief drop below the immediate support of $3,865 (March 12 low) could be seen before a continuation of the rally.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
Bitcoin Hash Rate alcanza 102 quintillones en el hito histórico de la red
Bitcoin’s (BTC) network hash rate has passed a record 102 quintillion hashes for the first time in history in a historic milestone for the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin adds another zero to hash rate
As data from monitoring resource Blockchain confirmed on Sept. 18, hash rate, ultimately a function of how secure the Bitcoin network is, has reached a high of 102.8 quintillion hashes.
Bitcoin network hash rate. Source: Blockchain
The achievement follows a string of records for the metric this year, Cointelegraph reporting on various stages of its expansion over the past few months.
Hash rate refers to the amount of computing power involved in processing Bitcoin transactions. The higher the number of hashes, the more implied competition there is among miners to obtain the block reward.
Since December 2018, the hash rate has progressed from its recent low of 31 quintillion hashes per second, equating to the progress of 230%.
Bitcoin proponents eye price implications
Current growth has excited commentators, despite coming in tandem with a moderate decline in Bitcoin price.
As many noted, new upward action for hash rate tends may hint at future price growth. Hash rate began growing in January after several months of decline, with price then following in April.
Commenting on the current rate of growth, Lightning Torch organizer Hodlonaut said the figures spoke to underlying confidence among miners.
“Last readjustment period (2016 blocks, or around 2 weeks) increased 10.38%. We are about half way through the current readjustment period, and on track for another 11.85% increase,” he forecast.
Others have already given more bullish predictions. Max Keiser, a firm believer in Bitcoin’s prowess over altcoins, has frequently doubled down on his depiction of giant surges in both hash rate and price in the near future.
Bitcoin needs to be ‘better regulated’ before it is traded on major exchanges
Speaking at a conference today hosted by CNBC and Institutional Investor, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton said that bitcoin would need better regulation before being listed for trading on major traditional exchanges like NYSE or Nasdaq.
“If [investors] think there’s the same rigor around that price discovery as there is on the Nasdaq or New York Stock Exchange … they are sorely mistaken,” said Clayton. “We have to get to a place where we can be confident that trading is better regulated.”
Clayton’s comments come a few days after VanEck and SolidX’s decision to withdraw their bitcoin ETF proposal. Earlier this month, Clayton also said that while “progress is being made” on the bitcoin ETF, bitcoin businesses still need to address some of the SEC’s lingering concerns, citing crypto custody and the threat of price manipulation on unregulated exchanges.
Bitcoin (BTC) Crashes Below $10,000 Days Ahead Of Bakkt Futures Launch
Bitcoin (BTC) has declined well below $10,000 just before the most anticipated Bakkt futures launch. This has unnerved a lot of the bulls that were hoping for a rally to the moon by Monday. However, when everyone starts thinking the same way, it is best to think the opposite. Remember, Bakkt is “scheduled” to be launched on Sep 23, 2019.
It was “scheduled” to be launched on December 12, 2018 as well and if you had been hoping in November 2018 that $6,000 was going to hold just because Bakkt was going to be launched then you would have made quite a loss as the price nosedived to $3,130 from there in a matter of weeks. So, what does this recent crash mean in light of what has happened in the past?
The market makers were waiting for investors to enter margined longs. They gave them plenty of time to do that as the price consolidating and doing nothing much. So, they kind of forced traders into making the decision now instead of waiting to enter a trade after the breakout because these past few days traders have been made to be comfortable buying into sideways action in anticipation of a pump as we saw in the case of Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins. Most of them entered leveraged longs on BTC/USD in the hopes of profiting off a potential Bakkt rally. Those that had their stops just below the symmetrical triangle were shaken out but there are a lot more stops to be run just yet. The market makers might want to give investors another chance to long these dips so they can trap them again.
Bullish or bearish doesn’t matter from the market makers’ perspective. They are in the business of shaking out the traders hoping for easy money in this market. As I have said before this is not legal and if someone were to do this in the stock market they would find the SEC knocking on their door. However, anything is possible in this market in the absence of regulation. If we look at the 1H chart for Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), we can see that it broke out of a falling wedge and is now primed for further upside.
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) rises when either Bitcoin (BTC) is planning on outpacing the market at a certain point or we are primed for further downside and Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to hold its ground better than other coins. In both cases, this rising dominance in Bitcoin (BTC) does not bode well for the altcoin market which has yet to experience serious pain. There are a lot of useless projects in the altcoin market and it is only a matter of time before we see a strong downtrend that shakes out most of such projects. The fact that Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) just broke out of a falling wedge and has now begun an uptrend is a testament to the fact that recent hopes of an altcoin season were just orchestrated attempts by the big players to lure retail investors into buying their altcoin bags before the next crash.