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Three Reasons Why Bitcoin Price Rally Has Stalled

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  • Extremely overbought conditions and other factors seem to have stalled bitcoin’s promising price rally.
  • Acceptance below $4,912 would validate signs of indecision on the weekly chart (doji candle) and open the doors for a deeper drop to $4,527 (200-day moving average).
  • A break above last week’s high of $5,347 would invalidate the weekly chart doji candle, although an immediate rally to $6,000 looks unlikely with the daily RSI still flashing overbought conditions.

Bitcoin’s recent price rally has stalled and signs of indecision are evident in the market just a week after a big bullish breakout.

The leading cryptocurrency closed at $5,190 on April 7, confirming an upside break of a bearish channel – the same pattern that paved the way for a bull market in 2015.

So far, however, the follow through to that bearish-to-bullish trend change has been anything but bullish.

The cryptocurrency witnessed two-way business last week, clocking a high and low of $5,347 and $4,912 before closing almost flat at $5,162.

So, the rally looks to have stalled due to the following three factors:

Overbought conditions

Bitcoin’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a widely followed technical indicator, jumped above 70.00 on April 2, signaling overbought conditions as the price jumped over 18 percent to highs above $5,000.

With the price climbing further to a 4.5-month high of $5,345, the RSI rose to near 90 levels, the highest since December 2017.

An extreme overbought reading is considered a sign the rally is overdone and is usually followed by a reaction – a price pullback or a consolidation, as is the case currently with bitcoin.

Prices then made numerous failed attempts to convincingly scale $5,300 in the eight days before a drop to $4,912 on April 12.

Bearish volume divergence

Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume across all cryptocurrency exchanges, as calculated by CoinMarketCap, doubled to $21 billion on April 2, validating the bearish-to-bullish trend change signaled by the break above the key resistance of $4,236 and the rally to $5,000.

As the cryptocurrency extended gains further to a fresh 4.5-month high of $5,347 on April 8, though, trading volumes tapered off to $17 billion, reinforcing the overstretched conditions reported by the 14-day RSI.

Hence, the pullback to $4,912 (Friday’s low) was not surprising. Prices have recovered by more than $200 over the weekend, but volumes are down further, to $10 billion. So, the recovery could be short-lived.

Forcing out weak hands before building breakout

The financial markets often test buyers’ resolve by revisiting former resistance-turned-support before building on a major bullish breakout. And that seems to be the case here.

For instance, BTC cleared the 100-day moving average (MA) hurdle on Feb. 19. The newfound support, however, was put to test multiple times in the 10 days to March 4 before a sustained move higher.

On similar lines, prices fell back below the psychological support of $5,000 last Friday and may drop even further to the 200-day MA, currently at $4,527, as the average is widely considered a barometer of a bullish/bearish trend.

The case for BTC shaking out weak holders with a drop to the 200-day MA looks stronger if support a $4,912 is breached.

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Weekly chart

On the weekly chart, BTC created a doji candle on Sunday, which is widely considered a sign of indecisive market.  Interestingly, the doji appeared following a high-volume falling channel breakout. So, it could be considered a sign of bullish exhaustion.

Acceptance below $4,912 – the low of the doji – would confirm buyer exhaustion, opening the doors for a deeper pullback to $4,527 (200-day MA).

4-hour chart

On the 4-hour chart, BTC could be creating the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders bearish reversal pattern.

A break below the neckline support at $4,988 would create room for a drop to $4,629 (target as per the measured move method).

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $5,142 on Bitstamp, representing a 2 percent gain on a 24-hour basis.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time  writing.

 

source.nulltx.

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Survey Says Sell? Just 43% Believe ‘Golden Cross’ is Bullish for Bitcoin Price

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By CCN: Not everyone is convinced that Bitcoin’s highly-touted “golden cross” is a bullish signal for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

ALMOST 25% OF CRYPTO INVESTORS BELIEVE GOLDEN CROSS IS BEARISH FOR BITCOIN

According to a Twitter survey conducted by crypto bull Thomas Lee, 24% of Crypto Twitter inhabitants believe that the signal, which typically hints at a bull run ahead, is a trap and that it is time to unload some Bitcoin. A golden cross occurs when a 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day moving average from under on the daily chart.

Being a typically-bullish signal, it did not come as a surprise for the largest number of respondents to say it is a good time to buy. However, it was not by a convincing margin. Only 43% of the respondents said the golden cross was a green light to purchase in anticipation of a imminent Bitcoin price rally.

MAJORITY OF BTC, XRP, AND ETH TRADERS ARE NET-LONG

Despite the survey, the formation of Bitcoin’s first golden cross since October 2015 has been greeted with excitement. Based on precedent, a bull run could be in the works. After the last golden cross, the bull run lasted until early 2018.

Sentiment has also turned bullish, and this is supported by factors other than technical analysis. Data compiled by forex exchange firm DailyFX also revealed that 81% of retail traders are now net-long bitcoin.

With altcoins, the percentage of retail traders who are net-long is even higher. About 97.7% of retail traders are net-long Ripple (XRP) while 92.2% are net-long Litecoin. Around 92.1% are net-long Ethereum.

BITCOIN PRICE DEFENDS $5,350 – CONFIRMATION OF A BULLISH TREND?

EToro Senior Market Analyst Mati Greenspan opines that a bull run has been confirmed. This is based on the fact that Bitcoin has broken the $5,350 resistance level, turning it into a new support area:

“Some people will want to wait until today’s close for confirmation but in my mind, this box is ticked. Following the extraordinary surge on April 2nd, many people were looking for some sort of continuation and now that we’ve broken the interim resistance of $5,350 it seems we have one.”

In some quarters though, the formation of the golden cross has been greeted with skepticism. Even in Lee’s survey, 19% indicated that they had no faith in technical analysis, calling it “voodoo.”

Source.ccn

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Altseason Already Over? Analysts Suggest Bitcoin (BTC) Will Outperform In Short-Term

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All eyes may be on Bitcoin (BTC), but other crypto assets have seen their fair share of gains since the start of 2019, sparking calls that what is known as “altseason” is here. This would seemingly be the case. Binance Coin recently surpassed its all-time high, in a brutal bear market no less, as Litecoin has rallied by over 200% since December’s low. Cardano, Ethereum, Tezos, and Basic Attention Token are among other prominent cryptocurrencies that have also seen jaw-dropping gains in the past 90 days.

And as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee explains, one of the “pre-conditions” for historical altcoin rallies has recently come to life in the current cycle. This precursor, for those unaware, is a drop in the correlation between the crypto asset class at large and Bitcoin itself.

Per Lee’s chart (seen below), which cites data from Bloomberg, CoinMarketCap, and his own firm, a drop in the rolling 90-day correlation between the two subsets has preceded three altseasons — Mar 2016, early-2017, and late-2017/early-2018. An altseason, as defined by Fundstrat, is when a large percentage of altcoins in the “liquid universe” rally by over 200% in a short period of time.

Funnily enough, however, the (pre-)altseason might already be over. On Wednesday, Bitcoin dominance hit 54.4%, the highest this figure has read since mid-December, when BTC was in the midst of the capitulation to the low $3,000s. This resurgence in Bitcoin’s market share came as a result of BTC’s ability to outperform smaller digital assets over the past week. For instance, BTC has lost 1.5% in the past 24 hours, but XRP, EOS, Stellar Lumens (XLM), and Tezos (XTZ) have all lost more than 5% of their value in the same time frame. And analysts expect for Bitcoin to outperform in the near future.

Bitcoin May Soon Outperform

Inmortal Technique, an industry commentator and trader, recently suggested that Bitcoin’s market dominance has broken past a declining trendline, all while altcoins’ market dominance has remained trap under a key resistance, indicating that BTC currently has the upper hand.

Speaking to Forbes, Mati Greenspan, the crypto-friendly markets analyst at eToro, has also suggested that BTC could continue to outperform. He simply stated that “Altseason is over,” meaning that Bitcoin could soon see an influx of buying pressure from investors looking to liquidate their altcoin positions. Jeff Dorman, the chief investment officer of Arca, echoed this:

“If you look back to early April, when BTC rose 25% in a day, every other digital asset rose as well. But, since that day, BTC has remained well bid while every other asset has slowly begun to decline due to a rotation out of ‘altcoins’ and into BTC.”

And according to AskMeHowToShort, a well-followed yet controversial analyst, this rotation out of altcoins might just be “bullish for Bitcoin.”

Source:ethereumworldnews

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Breaking: NY AG Alleges Bitcoin Exchange Misused Tether to Hide $850M

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By CCN: The office of New York Attorney General Letitia James has officially obtained a court order to request iFinex Inc, the operator of bitcoin exchange Bitfinex and Tether, to cease operations in New York.

The Attorney General’s office found that Bitfinex allegedly handed over $850 million in co-mingled client and corporate funds to Crypto Capital Corp, a company based in Panama.

Bitfinex is said to have never received the funds from the Panamanian firm, leading to the loss of more than $850 million.

The Attorney General’s office alleged Bitfinex granted itself access to Tether’s treasury and mismanaged $900 million of the stablecoin’s cash reserves to “hide” the loss of $850 million.

Attorney General James said:

“Our investigation has determined that the operators of the ‘Bitfinex’ trading platform, who also control the ‘Tether’ virtual currency, have engaged in a cover-up to hide the apparent loss of $850 million dollars of co-mingled client and corporate funds. New York state has led the way in requiring virtual currency businesses to operate according to the law. And we will continue to stand-up for investors and seek justice on their behalf when misled or cheated by any of these companies.”

HOW DID IT HAPPEN?

The core problem with Tether is that it does not issue public audits like strictly regulated stablecoins such as Gemini Dollar and Circle’s USDC. As a result, investors are unaware of what the potential “receivables” could be and the dealings of Tether.

A public audit would have forced Tether to disclose the alleged $900 million transactions initiated by Bitfinex had it been recorded on the financials of Tether Limited.

LACK OF PUBLIC AUDITS HAS ALWAYS BEEN A PROBLEM FOR TETHER

Since its creation in 2014, for more than five years, Tether has been a subject to consistent criticism from both investors and experts in the cryptocurrency sector for its lack of public audits.

Last month, CCN spoke to iFinex, the company that oversees Tether, about its new Terms of Service which read that every USDT is backed by cash and other receivables, but not 100% in cash.

“Every tether is always 100% backed by our reserves, which include traditional currency and cash equivalents and, from time to time, may include other assets and receivables from loans made by Tether to third parties, which may include affiliated entities (collectively, “reserves”),” the altered Terms of Service read.

Kasper Rasmussen, the director of marketing at iFinex, told CCN that Tether is still 100% backed even though it may include other assets.

“Tethers remain completely stable and 100% backed, so Tether’s reserves always equal or exceed the number of issued Tethers. The only change is that the composition of the assets that provide that backing includes a combination of cash, cash equivalents, and may also include other assets or receivables from loans issued by Tether,” Rasmussen said.

HOW DOES AFFECT BITCOIN?

Immediately after the release of the New York Attorney General’s report, the bitcoin price fell below $5,400, indicating a dip in the confidence of the crypto market.

Source.ccn

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