Early May Update: Technicals
EOS daily chart is still looking vapid – EOS breached the first support at 90k and it is heading down to the next one, a very strong zone at around 82k satoshis.
EOS weekly chart portrays an intriguing image – there appears to be a giant symmetrical triangle formed and EOS is on the cusp of exiting it. Considering it is on a very strong support line at 82k satoshis, one that EOS respected from August to November 2018 – it is very plausible that we will see a strong move upwards as the price leaves the triangle.
EOS is up 4% in USD on the week and down 6% on BTC in the same time-frame.
Trading volume is extremely high but also highly overstated – reported volume in the last 24hrs was $1.7b (the strongest volume day in April for EOS was April 3rd with $5.4b) and “Real 10” (trading volume on the exchanges that provably prevent wash trading) volume is whopping 54x lower – $31.5m. This means that EOS’S liquidity is blown out of proportion and vastly inflated.
On the other hand, EOS has a somewhat strong buy support, according to coinmarketbook.cc. Buy support is measuring sum of buy orders at 10% distance from the highest bid price. This way we can eliminate fake buy walls and whale manipulation and see the real interest of the market in a certain coin. In the last 24 hours, EOS had a $28m of buy orders measured with this method, which sets EOS buy support/market cap ratio at 0.61%, a wide-market above average value. Bitcoin and Ethereum had a 0.27% and 0.28% ratios, respectively. This novel metric indicates there are a lot of manipulations, inflated liquidity and fake orders on all crypto trading pairs, including EOS pairs.
Early May Update: Fundamentals
To assess fundamental health of a project, we used the FCAS metric. FCAS is a comparative metric whose score is derived from the interactivity between primary project lifecycle fundamentals: User Activity, Developer Behavior, and Market Maturity.
There are a few sub components which provide data to each fundamental:
User Activity is comprised of Project Utilization and Network Activity
Developer Behavior is comprised of Code Changes, Code Improvement and Community Involvement
Market Maturity is comprised of Liquidity and Market Risk. Market Maturity has less than 5% impact on a project’s overall FCAS.
FCAS ratings are on a 0-1000 point scale with a corresponding letter grade. Break points are based on standard deviations in the underlying component distributions.
900 – 1000 is marked as S for superb. 750 – 899 is marked as A for attractive. 650 – 749 is marked as B for basic. 500 – 649 is marked as C for caution. And finally, below 500 is marked as fragile. You can read more about it here.
EOS has been ranked as the S category – superb with overall 911 points as of May 6th. By far the strongest metrics that contributed to this great score are both developer activity that got 924 points and user activity with 926 and market maturity that had 750 points. EOS is one of the leading projects under this valuation method, a strong indicator of sound fundamentals behind EOS project.
Below are some of the most important news around the project in the last 30 days.
- REX (Resource Exchange) started as a proposal by Dan Larimer on Aug 2018. The idea is to be able to allow token holders to Lease out their spare EOS tokens to Dapps or others that need resources in return for “rent” and access to community funds like RAM fees and name auction fees. It saw its official release on 18th April as 15 out of 21 block producers voted in favor of REX deployment.
- Ecosystem of dapps keeps growing with number of dapps increasing from 355 in January to 508 now, according to dapp.review. EOS still absolutely dominates the transaction number and transaction volumes, as well as the overall number of dapps users, keeping both Tron and Ethereum far behind.
EOS was published by software publisher Block.one and development is led by CTO Dan Larimer, who founded Steemit and BitShares. The project competes with other popular smart contract platforms such as Ethereum, NEO and Cardano.
EOS tries to differentiate itself by providing transaction throughput capable of handling thousands of transactions per second without having to pay direct fees, improved usability for all parties involved, and governance for business and chain maintenance. EOS makes use of on-chain governance whereby token holders can vote for the block producers (BPs) as well as various upgrades to the protocol, monetary policy, or constitution.
This constitution includes general rules governing the behavior of the protocol, and every transaction sent must include a hash of it. The goal is to define community values that are not enforceable or incentivized easily.
However, the rules are not enforceable at the protocol level but rather act as a terms-of-service agreement which users must agree to. Dispute settlement is left to the EOS Core Arbitration Forum (ECAF), which is comprised of independent professionals who can deliver binding rulings which BPs then execute.
Year in Review
EOS is a blue chip crypto project that earned the spotlight even in the top shelf mainstream media after its massive ICO. EOS is most serious competitor for the reigning king of dapp platforms, Ethereum. Many believe that soon enough, EOS will reach $30.00, a target that has been set for the majority of the past year.
In April, Block.one, the development team behind EOS announced a new $200m partnership that aimed to accelerate the EOSIO ecosystem across Asia. May saw some major developments within the EOSIO software which eventually led to the launch of a bug bounty – a program established to encourage ethical hacking in order to pay external developers to hack and test the integrity of the softwares security protocol.
The rest of the year saw a bear trend pull a huge chunk of value out of EOS. As the year drew to a close, many EOS investors have been left kicking themselves as it seems that both January and April did present the best buyout opportunities.
EOS endured constant attacks from other crypto communities for its governance model and alleged collusion among their block producers. The languishing price also threw some of the big block producers in financial conundrum as they had trouble keeping their costs of running servers for EOS blockchain under control. All in all, radically different to Ethereum, EOS made use of 2018 to establish itself as one of the top cryptocurrencies in the market.
General Market Movements and Sentiment Shift
The downfall of altcoins that were mainstream media darlings at the start of the year, EOS among them, can be attributed, in part, to novice investors getting scared off once the bear market kicked in with a vengeance. Every resurgence of bitcoin in recent period, was met with the, for the most part, inability of altcoins to rally with it. Reason for that can be rookie investors learning from their mistakes, while smart money that was previously watching from the sidelines has begun to enter into bitcoin.
These entities weren’t about to buy BTC when it was trading at an all-time high, but they’ll take a look now, having missed the boat the first time around. None of them, it seems, are interested in altcoins however, despite the fact that many are trading at a 5x discount. Institutional investors may be cautious, but they’re not foolish.
Our EOS Price Prediction for 2019
EOS, as the rest of the market, is tied at the hip of bitcoin’s price action. If bitcoin embarks on another bull run, EOS can hope for one as well. Since that is very unlikely, don’t expect much to change for EOS price-wise in this year. So 2019 will be a year of boring sideways action with minor bitcoin ignited jumps and slumps.
The main currency in cryptocurrency markets is Bitcoin and given this, altcoins tend to fuel Bitcoin runs and Bitcoin tends to do the same in return. Given this relationship, Bitcoin price movements (or lack thereof) tend to effect altcoin prices.
When Bitcoin goes up swiftly, it will likely:
- Suppress or depress altcoins as money flows into Bitcoin;
- Or, take altcoins along for the ride
In cases when Bitcoin plunges, it will likely:
- Depress altcoins as money flows into fiat;
- Or, cause altcoins to boom as money flows into them, but this is rarely the case.
When Bitcoin moves sideways, it will likely:
- Cause altcoins to mimic that as traders wait for a clear sign on the direction of the market;
- Or, cause altcoins to flourish as traders look for returns in altcoins and try to get favorable trades in terms of BTC pairs.
RTo summarize, Bitcoin is the focal point of the crypto market in many ways, and with BTC trading pairs on every exchange, the gravity of Bitcoin is hard to evade.
The majority of projects wil fail — some startups are created just to gather funds and disappear, some would not handle the competition, but most are just ideas that look good on paper, but in reality, are useless for the market.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum said:
“There are some good ideas, there are a lot of very bad ideas, and there are a lot of very, very bad ideas, and quite a few scams as well”
As a result, over 95% of successful ICOs and cryptocurrency projects will fail and their investors will lose money. The other 5% of projects will become the new Apple, Google or Alibaba in the cryptoindustry. Will EOS be among those 5%?
Hard to tell but probability for that is fairly solid as EOS has managed to carve out a place for itself despite heavy head winds it faced ever since its massive $4 billion ICO. Dan Larimer is certainly one of the geniuses of crypto space and the only reason he is less respected than some other personalities from the sector is his obvious social inadequacy.
In 2019, EOS needs to prove its worth with sturdiness and resistance towards possible attacks while also working as marketed. Considering Ethereum is still a hot mess with their complete system revamp going on, EOS has a unique opportunity to seize the throne from Ethereum and become the default dapps platform for the future.
All of this summed up means one thing: EOS might live through couple of orchestrated and, for a regular trader, completely unpredictable pumps but the majority of time will be murky sideways trading with small volume and no significant interest from the market.
Price will heavily depend on what BTC will do and since many analysts think BTC will not be making big moves in this year, it is hard to expect EOS will do them either. The price will probably stagnate and record slow-moving depreciation or appreciation depending on the team activity, potential technological breakthrough or high-level partnership.
EOS Roadmap for 2019
There is no much information on what is expected from EOS in 2019 as far as their roadmap is concerned, at least not in their official channels since there are no officially scheduled events or releases by far.
The 5th phase dubbed Cluster Implementation the Future doesn’t have specific dates, unlike previous stages.
What is known by far regarding future developments for 2019 is only available from individual announcements of Block.one developers, without actual dates of releases and updates.
One of the developments that are said to be waiting to happen is the implementation of inter-blockchain communication which should enable scaling through sidechain, which would make the network more efficient and faster.
Another one of implementations expected in 2019 is also Asynchronous Byzantine fault tolerant, otherwise known as aBFT, which should allow the improvements of irreversibility times, allowing direct communication for BPs.
The team is also said to be working on Resource Exchange that should encourage voting and allow token leasing, while it is said that the team will be presenting a new infrastructure with 4% inflation, although it is not yet confirmed whether any of these updates would be completed in 2019.
Market prediction for EOS price 2019
With the market being so volatile, predicting the price of the cryptocurrencies is really one of the most daunting and thankless tasks.
Let’s consider the publications and personalities, and their forecasts regarding the EOS price prediction, which will give us a fairer idea:
According to WalletInvestor, investing in EOS will turn out to be a favorable venture for the investors, They believe that in 2023, it might reach $911.
Coinfan sees EOS reacing $47 in December of this year, after a string of months with constant gains.
Algorithm at Tradingbeasts.com has a much more conservative approach to EOS price, putting it at $7 at the end of the year which still represents more than double of its current price.
Steemit Writer OrdinaryRich
One of the Steemit writers, OrdinaryRich predicted that EOS might reach as high as $20 by 2019. He even predicts that EOS might experience around 60% more than Ethereum’s market capitalization.
Understanding the exploit that made EOS.IO “unusable” for two hours
On Sept. 13, an attacker flooded the EOSIO network to drain $110,000 in EOS from a gambling dApp. During the process, many user-facing applications were unusable due to congestion. Here’s how the hacker did it, in detail.
Basics of the network congestion exploit
Four days ago, an attacker pushed the EOS network into “high congestion mode” as part of a smart contract exploit. The maneuver temporarily made some free network resources unavailable, making many applications on the network “unusable” to smaller token holders for over two hours.
Although the network was still accessible (for example, a block explorer would still work), many were “prevented from publishing updates” or “doing anything actively on the chain” unless they paid for prohibitively costly network resources.
At the peak of network congestion, it required nearly 12 EOS to make a single feeless transaction on the network, said one community member. For context, Most blockchains attach a fee directly to transactions. EOSIO allows users to stake their tokens in exchange for network resources.
The attacker was able to rent a huge amount of network resources on a recently opened resource exchange. These resources were leveraged to select which valid transactions would get included on the blockchain to manipulate gambling dApp outcomes.
During this time, the maintainers of the gambling dApp did not have enough EOS on hand to take their contract offline (or take any preventative actions at all). This allowed the attacker to drain the smart contract for 30,000 EOS, at the cost of 300 EOS in rented network resources, at their leisure.
Identifying the attacker
Beginning Aug. 17, the user “mumachayinmm” started conducting tests against a variety of gambling dApps. After just under a month of testing, mumachayinmm rented the equivalent of 1.45 million EOS in network resources.
Previously, this would have required some $5.8 million in tokens. But REX, a new service launched in May, allows users to stake their EOS for security and voting purposes while selling the network resources their stake entitles them to. After REX, 1.45 million EOS in network resources cost just $1,200.
On Sept. 13, mumachayinmm started flooding EOSIO with hundreds of thousands of transactions.
Technical details behind the gambling dApp exploit
EOSPlay is a decentralized gambling dApp that offers games such as poker and dice. What made the service exploitable was how it generated random numbers for these games.
Instead of using a secure source of randomness, EOSPlay used the EOSIO blockchain as its source of entropy. Unfortunately, information on a blockchain can be manipulated.
As an example, on Bitcoin miners who find a block get to select which transactions are included at their discretion, so long as they’re legal transactions. Theoretically, if a dApp used transactions on Bitcoin to make calculations then large miners could game it.
On EOSIO, a similar way to manipulate the blockchain is to amass enough network resources to include whichever transactions are desired over all other users.
Specifically, what the attacker did was put deferred transactions into each block, said Dexaran, a respected smart contract developer. These blocks were the ones EOSPlay used to calculate random numbers.
By monopolizing network resources, the attacker could then calculate the random number before the contract could. If the number was a losing number, then the deferred transactions started an “infinite loop,” pushing random number generation to the next block, said Dexaran.
The maneuver allowed mumachayinmm to win on EOSPlay over and over again.
EOSPlay helpless during the attack
To make matters worse, the maintainers behind the gambling dApp did not stake enough EOS to cover their contract operation costs when EOSIO’s conservative mode was triggered. This was an oversight on the part of the maintainers.
With network resources monopolized the maintainers needed to have enough liquid EOS on hand to ensure a transaction to halt the contract would go through. It appears they didn’t have the tokens on hands, allowing the attacker to bide their time as the contract was drained.
These spam attacks aren’t unique to EOS. Networks such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are also vulnerable to spam attacks should a wealthy token holder wish to pay for them (though they are prohibitively expensive in most cases).
Block.one executives respond
Block.one CTO and creator of EOSIO Daniel Larimer took to Twitter to dispel the “FUD” around the network congestion attacks. He asserted the network was “working as intended”:
Yet, these assertions are in conflict with Larimer’s May 2018 comments while he was touting the “feeless” design of EOSIO:
“On EOSIO, no single user has the ability to saturate the entire network no matter how much money they’re willing to spend.”
Yet, that is exactly what happened during this exploit. The attacker saturated the network by spending a paltry $1,200.
Block.one CEO Brendan Blumer also took to social media to defend EOSIO. Though, he was rather vague on specific actions until pressed by a community member.
If a user stakes EOS they will always have access to network resources, he claims. But the amount will vary substantially, and when paying customers are using it all, it’ll be necessary to pay to maintain the same level of access, stated Blumer.
The recent exploit raises serious questions about the EOSIO blockchain. Jared Moore, an active community member asked: If the network is at risk of sudden spikes in resource cost, how much liquid EOS should developers have on hand to ensure they’re protected? Without guidance, dApp developers will continue to be vulnerable to these kinds of exploits, he argued.
Another issue is access. As EOS gains more usage it’s likely the network will eventually enter a state of constant “high congestion mode,” voiced another enthusiast.
This means developers and corporations, rather than small-time users, will dominate access to resources on the network—raising questions as to who the network is built for. These same corporations could also monopolize resources on the network, said Moore, in essence becoming gatekeepers.
On the bright side, such a scenario would make EOS like owning land, said another commentator, giving the token value through the network resources it entitles the owner to.
Dexaran, a security engineer and the creator of the ERC-223 token standard, made the following suggestion to mitigate future congestion attacks on dApps:
“It would be nice to calculate how much EOS you need to put into a ‘reserve’ account to make sure you have access to your contracts even during harsh congestion,” he commented.
Another community member voiced a need for better ways to calculate staked EOS needs under different network conditions:
“The key issue here is that the community has gotten used to the amount of free transactions they receive when the network is relatively unused. We need better estimates of how much EOS you need staked during different network conditions.”
He went on to describe problems with how staking is treated on the network.
“I also have a really big issue with the fact that EOSIO does not prioritize ‘staking’ transactions. When these conditions happen, folks attempting to stake more EOS should be allowed to (once per account) as a priority transaction. When I’ve paid for huge sums of EOS, it’s ridiculous when I get locked out and can’t allocate more to my account. I can’t ‘pay for more’ even if I wanted to.”
Designing a public blockchain is a complicated business. Things will go wrong. Right now, it’s very costly to build useful apps on any blockchain. Block.one executives should take the lead to make the development experience easier and less risky, paving the way for mass adoption, rather than maintaining hardliner positions that ‘nothing’s wrong.’
EOS Price Analysis and Prediction for September 16th 2019 – Can EOS HODL $4 Support?
It’s a great start to a new week for cryptocurrency markets. While there aren’t any big price changes, most markets are in the green today which is a great sign. EOS has finally reached the dreaded $4.0 support level. Let’s take a look at some relevant EOS news and see if anything caused that spike, we will also take a look at the charts and see what they have in store for us.
The biggest news for EOS, and the main reason the price is exhibiting so much bullish momentum is due to the upcoming EOS version upgrade on September 23rd. As discussed in our previous EOS price prediction:
“THE BIGGEST DEAL ABOUT THE NEW EOS UPGRADE IS THAT IT WILL ALLOW DAPPS TO PAY USERS FOR THEIR CPU POWER.”
This new feature will give EOS a leg up on Ethereum and allow developers to create some truly revolutionary dApps. Ethereum is also gearing up for its ETH 2.0 upgrade on November so the two smart contract platforms are definitely going head to head.
In other not so positive news, NullTX reported how a hacker stole 30,000 EOS by exploiting a gambling dApp. The app in question is called EOSPlay and the hacker used the REX platform which allowed him to stake CPU power and in exchange “negate” other users’ transactions. An extremely clever technique that was going to be used to exploit an app by someone sooner or later.
EOS Price Analysis
Relative Strength Index: The RSI is currently at a healthy 43 points. It’s a bit low, but that’s expected given the recent slight price decline.
Bollinger Bands: The price is also leaning towards the low end of the band which most likely means it will stay at the current level for a few more hours at least.
Volume: The volume is surprisingly high at the time of writing. That’s most likely because it’s a start of a new week when market action usually picks up.
Double Top: With the EOS price dropping from a high of $4.15 to a current of $4.09, a double top pattern has formed. This pattern is extremely bearish, but the caveat here is that a double top usually signifies medium to long term trend change. Since we are looking at the 15 minute chart, we are dealing with short term trends. As such, there’s no reason to take the double top too seriously.
EOS Price Prediciton
Because we’re at the start of a new week, and with the EOS and Ethereum upgrades ahead of us, I’m going to predict that EOS will be able to hold the $4.0 support. Even though some news came out about the EOSPlay hack, 30,000 isn’t that significant and won’t have much of an impact on the market. On the other hand, with the new EOS version upgrade coming up in seven days, bullish momentum is in the works for the cryptocurrency.
On another note, it’s important to keep a good eye on Bitcoin’s price movements. As any big swings will have a similar effect on the rest of the crypto markets.
EOS Price Analysis – Bulls are Taking Over the Market
|Key EOS resistance levels:||$4.5, $5, $5.6|
|Key EOS support levels:||$3.7, $3.2, $3|
*Price at the time of writing
EOS Long Term Trend Price Prediction: Bullish
The mid-year bearish correction seems to be over for EOS EOS, 8.69% as the market shows a positive momentum after relying on the $3 key support since early this month. The latest price growth has currently brought the market to $4, making the EOS price to correct 33% gain over the past 7 days and 8.45% gain under 24-hours of trading.
As we can see on the daily chart, the price is attempting to breakthrough from the descending channel pattern, which has been carving since June. Following yesterday bullish engulfing pattern, we can expect a price push to $4.5, $5 and $5.6 on the upside.
On the other hand, we may as well witness a price pull to $3.7, $3.2 and $3 support if the sellers manage to regain control of the market. A drive below the important support at $3 might lead to a serious bearish action in the market.
EOS is looking bullish on the RSI after bolstering at the 30 level since mid-July. The price is now significantly shooting at the 70 level. The Stochastic RSI is revealing a bullish momentum but appears weak at the overbought zone.
EOS Medium Term Trend Price Prediction: Bullish
The past few days of price increase has made EOS to reach $4 and at the same time testing the channel’s upper boundary. The token may drop if the price action keeps respecting the four weeks channel pattern. However, we can expect the $3.7, $3.5 and $3.2 to provide supports for the market.
Currently, the EOS market has slightly broken above the channel’s upper boundary yesterday. If the break becomes significant, we may see a decent rise to $4.3, $4.6 and $4.9 resistance. But now, the market is yet to give a clear sign for a breakout.
As we can see, the RSI is lying on the overbought region, showing a little bullish weakness, although the buyers may regroup back if the RSI 50 can hold. The Stochastic RSI has reached an overbought area after revealing an ongoing buying pressure in the market. EOS may see a little price drop before rising back.
EOS Short Term Trend Price Prediction: Bullish
EOS is caught in a bullish trend on the hourly chart, although a sell is signaled on the technical indicators. If the RSI indicator follows the September 7 bearish divergence signal, the price may still rise a bit to $4.2 and $4.4 resistance before it clearly plays out on the price chart – whereby retracing to the rising trend line (yellow).
However, the Stochastic RSI will continue to oscillate within its limits, although currently in the oversold area. In case of a sudden price drop, the closest support to watch out for is $3.8 level. A drive below the yellow line may cause the price to slump heavily to $3.6, $3.4 and $3.2 on the downside. For now, the bulls are gaining control of the EOS market.
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