Mid May Update: Technicals
NEO finally shows some signs of life on the daily chart – there is a doji candlestick formed yesterday and today’s candle is a healthy green with NEO outpacing BTC 11% in the last 24hrs.
After dropping through every support standing in its way, NEO stooped to reach a new all time low in satoshis. However, culmination point has been reached yesterday and a timid bullish reversal is on the horizon.
Shorter timeframes clearly reflect this: NEO closed 7 green candles on the 4H time period and smashed the EMA20 with ease. It is now testing MA50 and should it break this level of 140k sats, the next stop is its long-term support, now turned resistance zone at 170k satoshis.
Higher timeframes are yet to show this bullish reversal as the daily chart is still a witness of a NEO carnage that went on in the last month.
One thing to bear in mind is the turbulent and erratic nature of bitcoin – a sudden thrust up or slide down is always on the cards which would invalidate this and all other analysis and predictions. In such cases, market is shaken up with most traders exiting altcoins and entering bitcoin positions, especially in the initial phases of bitcoin pumps. So it is always good idea to keep a close eye on bitcoin’s behaviour before opening a long or a short on any other coin in the market.
Should this happen, stop by again to check out our updated charts and thoughts.
Trading volumes are not looking good, the reported volume is 40x larger than the “Real 10” volume (trading volume on the exchanges that prevent wash trading). This means that NEO’s liquidity is massively inflated which is worrisome.
On the other hand, NEO comparatively has a good buy support, according to coinmarketbook.cc. Buy support is measuring sum of buy orders at 10% distance from the highest bid price. This way we can eliminate fake buy walls and whale manipulation and see the real interest of the market in a certain coin. NEO has a $8.9 million buy support measured with this technique which sets NEO’s buy support/market cap ratio at 1.4%, a top ratio among the bluechip coins.
NEO’s market sentiment score, measured by the market analytics firm Predicoin, paints a neutral picture.
Predicoin wraps its analysis up into a single simple indicator known as the SentScore, which is formed from the combination of five different verticals: news, social media, buzz, technical analysis and fundamentals.
NEO currently has a Sentscore of 4.9 which is defined as “the neutral zone”. You can see that all metrics but Twitter have been stagnating with no clear trend – see chart below. There was a nice bump in Twitter activity around April 24-25th.
Overall, Predicoin’s Sentscore is an excellent indicator of community interest and can provide useful insight into which coins are trending right now.
Mid May Update: Fundamentals
To assess fundamental health of a project, we used the FCAS metric. FCAS is a comparative metric whose score is derived from the interactivity between primary project lifecycle fundamentals: User Activity, Developer Behavior, and Market Maturity.
There are a few sub components which provide data to each fundamental:
User Activity is comprised of Project Utilization and Network Activity
Developer Behavior is comprised of Code Changes, Code Improvement and Community Involvement
Market Maturity is comprised of Liquidity and Market Risk. Market Maturity has less than 5% impact on a project’s overall FCAS.
FCAS ratings are on a 0-1000 point scale with a corresponding letter grade. Break points are based on standard deviations in the underlying component distributions.
900 – 1000 is marked as S for superb. 750 – 899 is marked as A for attractive. 650 – 749 is marked as B for basic. 500 – 649 is marked as C for caution. And finally, below 500 is marked as fragile. You can read more about it here.
NEO has been ranked as the A category – attractive with overall 783 points as of May 8th. By far the strongest metric that contributed to this great score is developer activity that got 827 points, followed by user activity with 760 and market maturity that had the lowest amount of 617 points. This valuation model that tries to gauge fundamentals of a project based on diverse data points grades NEO as attractive investment but market disagrees with that evaluation, at least for the time being.
Below are some of the most important news around the project in the last 30 days.
- NEO has published its roadmap for NEO 3.0 – In 2019, NEO will take a steady step forward in the continuation of their vision of supporting large-scale commercial applications with blockchain technology. The cornerstone of the efforts is NEO 3.0, which will be a robust blockchain implementation with high throughput, enhanced stability and security, an optimized smart contract system, and a feature-packed infrastructure set for diverse business application scenarios. Most of the new features in NEO 3.0 are backwards-compatible and will therefore be ported to NEO 2.x, which guarantees that the majority of development efforts for NEO 2.x DApps will be valid even if deployed to NEO 3.0. After the launch of the NEO 3.0 MainNet, we will also provide funding and technical support to assist developers in the migration of their DApps from NEO 2.x to NEO 3.0. In Q2 of 2019, we will launch a NEO 3.0 TestNet for development purposes. Migration plan will be published in 2020.
- One of the most successful dapps running on NEO is travala.com, a travelling app that reported another record-breaking growth in both site visits and travel bookings.
- Neoline – A Metamask-type browser wallet launched for interacting with the NEO blockchain.
- NEO Smart Economy has partnered with Zeux to allow people to use the cryptocurrency when paying for goods and services via Apple and Samsung Pay. Zeux is a Fintech company that allows users to convert their cryptocurrencies to fiat and pay for products and services.
Aside of this roadmap announcement, there were no major updates regarding NEO fundamentals aside of couple of minor exchange listings and technical updates from the team. There was also one delisting from Koinex.
- Erik Zhang of NEO also announced that a much improved dBFT 2.0 consensus algorithm will be deployed to Main Net in early May 2019 twitter.com
- As for the NEO ecosystem, Switcheo exchange announced launch of atomic swaps between Ethereum and NEO blockchains. Another exchange based on NEO, Nash has also released their update regarding bitcoin trading on their platform that is soon to be available for the Nash users.
Below is our long-term forecast where we cover general market movements and sentiment shifts before delving deeper into the specific predictions for NEO.
NEO is a next generation of blockchain, a smart economy platform that has had a monumental rise to fame and most know NEO for its explosive growth.
NEO is a blockchain platform and cryptocurrency, which is designed to digitize assets using smart contracts, aiming to bring blockchain to the masses.
Just like how Ether is used on the Ethereum network, GAS is used on the NEO network.
By holding the NEO coin in your wallet, you earn GAS which can be used to make transactions on NEO’s blockchain.
Some of the key features of NEO are:
- Unlike most other cryptocurrencies, the NEOcoin cannot be divided. So, you cannot make a transfer like 0.5 NEO or 0.11 NEO. NEO can be considered similar to the stocks of any company, which cannot be divided.
- While Ethereum allows the programmers to code only in one language — Solidity, Neo allows developers to code smart contracts using C++, C#, Go, Java, and other common programming languages.
Neo (NEO) Roadmap 2019
So what is the community excited about for 2019?
It boiled down to 3-4 major developments around the ecosystem.
Leading the way is the decentralization.
Decentralization is also an important one, since it is where the value in this industry is derived from.
NEO recently released a publication on its official blog detailing how they plan to make the NEO network decentralized in the upcoming year.
At present, the NEO MainNet has seven consensus nodes. Netherlands-based telecommunications company, KPN, and open-source community group, City of Zion, host a node each. The other five nodes are currently hosted by the NEO Foundation in various regions around the world.
NEO want to break this centralized consensus and have decided to release a GitHub repository titled “How to become NEO consensus node”. The repository was updated to a 1.3 version which includes new information on the rules and election schedules of upcoming consensus node selection cycles.
Another frequently cited happening is Neo 3.0. NEO 3.0 will be an entirely new version of the NEO platform, built for large scale enterprise use cases. It will provide higher TPS and stability, expanded APIs for smart contracts, optimized economic and pricing models, and much more. Most importantly, we will entirely redesign NEO’s core modules.
Integration of NEX and nOS is also eagerly awaited in the NEO camp. nOS aims to encourage consumer level adoption of NEO dApps by providing a safer and easier way to use applications. It is a virtual operating system allowing you to connect to the Blockchain Powered Open Internet.
NEX, also known as Neon Exchange, is a platform for payment services and decentralized crypto trade. NEX aims to combine the performance of centralized exchanges with the trust and security features of decentralized exchanges.
General Market Movements and Sentiment Shift
The downfall of altcoins that were mainstream media darlings at the start of the year, NEO among them, can be attributed, in part, to new, naive investors getting scared off once the bear market kicked in with a vengeance. Every resurgence of bitcoin in recent period, was met with the, for the most part, weakened ability of altcoins to rally with it.
Reason for that can be novice investors learning from their mistakes, while smart money that was previously watching from the sidelines has begun to enter into bitcoin.
These entities weren’t about to buy BTC when it was trading at an all-time high, but they’ll take a look now, having missed the boat the first time around. None of them, it seems, are interested in altcoins however, despite the fact that many are trading at a 5x discount. Institutional investors may be cautious, but they’re not foolish.
Some altcoins will continue to have some speculative value for the foreseeable future. But just like the now infamous tulips, the hysteria will eventually subside. We are already witnessing the first phases of that slide and even though most of the bag holders react emotionally to articles that criticize their coins, these observations are not opinionated but based on the developments on the market. You better start emotionally detaching yourself from your “great sounding” coin because if goes nowhere, ideas are worthless without execution and real users that see value in the project.
2018 was a very interesting year overall for the broader DLT community, “ICO projects” came and burst in a spectacular, fireworks similar fashion.
While the mass death of barely-alive-in-the-first-place projects causes some uncertainty and skepticism among the newcomers, it is something veterans and pioneers of this space have been longing for.
In order for DLT to become established, we need quality over quantity, we need convergence on standards and consolidation of communities to bring to life what we’ve been working on for years. With less noise, 2019 will act as a Darwinian selection mechanism, much like that of which the IT companies post-dotCom Bubble experienced.
This is a good thing and absolutely necessary for the real maturation of the space.
How to evaluate fundamentals of a crypto project
We should consider crypto valuations like educated gambling, a ‘prediction market’ where we are betting on the odds of project and token success. There are some catalysts of success we can identify:
- Project success drivers (user traction, strong financial bottomline, good treasury management, network effects/synergies between users and token investors)
Real user traction is the most important driver of success, that is what most of holders call “adoption”. If people start using certain crypto project because they find it useful and it makes their life easier, that is a guarantee of success. So far, almost no crypto project can claim to have done so.
Strong financial warchest that will enable teams behind the project to develop their visions, incentivize other developers to join them and start using their product is also a crucial aspect of any project. Tied into it is treasury management – especially for the project that had big ICO proceeds. Temptation to squander all those millions into “conferences and events” (read hard-core partying on yachts and luxury hotels) was massive, especially if we consider that majority of token projects founders were no-names and ordinary employees that worked for a paycheck before the ICO fairy-tale happened to them.
Another adoption indicator – network effects, where every additional user of a good or service adds to the value of that product to others. When a network effect is present, the value of a product or service increases according to the number of others using it.
If you can objectively notice that your favorite token project has some of these traits happening for it, be happy – you might have found a winner.
- Token success drivers (favourable demand-supply dynamics, programmable incentives on token, aligned incentives with management team and consensus on token as common unit of value creation).
Token success is completely dependent on tokenomics. As defined by infloat.co, tokenomics involves the incentivization of certain stakeholders to ensure particular behavior.
So, tokenomics is essentially an incentive structure designed to ensure that a token has a purpose and utility within its native network. It is the study of how coins/tokens work within the broader ecosystem that can be considered as a sovereign micro-economy. This includes such things like token distribution as well as how they can be used to incentivize positive behaviour in the network.
For example, bitcoin is designed to ensure that bitcoin miners have a reason to mine new bitcoin. Miners validate bitcoin transactions and receive (or create) newly minted bitcoin in the process.
On the other hand, individuals, businesses and other bitcoin users pay a transaction fee for miners to include their transaction in the next block. This ensures that even when all bitcoin have been minted (to the tune of 21 million, which should happen in around 2140), bitcoin miners are still incentivized to keep ‘mining’ (i.e. validating transactions).
To paraphrase all of the above in the simplest terms: if you, after weeks of research and reading, can’t figure out why the project needs to have a token, it probably doesn’t.
So why does the token exist then?
– To make the project founders rich.
But there are some people on Twitter, Reddit, Telegram claiming otherwise.
-Yes, they are either: paid to do so by those same founders, they are desperate and delusional bad holders or they are just stroking their own ego with newly learned fancy economic terms and jargon.
Needless to say – stay clear of such projects.
Our NEO Token Price Prediction for 2019
NEO, as the rest of the market, is tied at the hip of bitcoin’s price action. If bitcoin embarks on another bull run, NEO can hope for one as well. Since that is very unlikely, don’t expect much to change for NEO price-wise in this year. So 2019 will be a year of boring sideways action with minor bitcoin ignited jumps and slumps.
The main currency in cryptocurrency markets is Bitcoin and given this, altcoins tend to fuel Bitcoin runs and Bitcoin tends to do the same in return. Given this relationship, Bitcoin price movements (or lack thereof) tend to effect altcoin prices.
When Bitcoin goes up swiftly, it will likely:
- Suppress or depress altcoins as money flows into Bitcoin;
- Or, take altcoins along for the ride
In cases when Bitcoin plunges, it will likely:
- Depress altcoins as money flows into fiat;
- Or, cause altcoins to boom as money flows into them, but this is rarely the case.
When Bitcoin moves sideways, it will likely:
- Cause altcoins to mimic that as traders wait for a clear sign on the direction of the market;
- Or, cause altcoins to flourish as traders look for returns in altcoins and try to get favorable trades in terms of BTC pairs.
To summarize, Bitcoin is the focal point of the crypto market in many ways, and with BTC trading pairs on every exchange, the gravity of Bitcoin is hard to evade.
NEO-BTC price correlation
Correlation is measured on a scale from -1 to 1. Values above 0 shows the degree to which altcoin is moving in the same direction as BTC prices (either up or down in tandem), and values below 0 shows the degree to which altcoin moves in the opposite direction of BTC prices (so when BTC goes down, altcoin goes up, or vice versa). Values around 0 shows that when BTC price moves, altcoins stays steady, or alternatively that when altcoin moves up or down that the BTC price is staying steady.
NEO has had a correlation coefficient of 0.90+ for the most of its market life, as shown on the image below – source.
Overall, the price change of any altcoin token is explained by the dynamics of the bitcoin-influenced market. However, there are also fundamental reasons for the individual token rise and fall in price, which can be pinned down to a big tech upgrade or more often, big partnership.
The majority of projects will fail — some startups are created just to gather funds and disappear, some would not handle the competition, but most are just ideas that look good on paper, but in reality, are useless for the market.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum said:
“There are some good ideas, there are a lot of very bad ideas, and there are a lot of very, very bad ideas, and quite a few scams as well”
Neo Coin (NEO) Future Outlook
However, not all projects have the same chance of failing (risk), nor do they have the same potential upside (reward).
As a result of ICO teams’ incompetence and lack of integrity, fueled by basic human instinct that is greed and crypto investors’ naivety, over 95% of successful ICOs and cryptocurrency projects will fail and their investors will lose money. The other 5% of projects will become the new Apple, Google or Alibaba in the cryptoindustry. Will NEO be among those 5%?
That is one of the tougher predictions to make as there is a lot to like and dislike about NEO. If we were forced to make a call, we would say yes, NEO is one of the rare projects with a healthy future prospect.
There are two major points that will affect NEO destiny.
Why will NEO fail?
First, regulatory actions. In terms of risks NEO’s biggest dangers certainly comes from the Chinese authorities attitude to cryptocurrency and the success or failure of ICOs on her network. If the Chinese government declares a total crackdown on cryptocurrency then NEO may well be forced to move to friendlier environments and the price may suffer. Any failure of NEO backed ICOs could also reflect badly on the blockchain and could potential raise questions about NEO’s long term viability.
Second, the transfer from centralized to decentralized network. NEO has marked this year as the date for making this big leap, from being a centrally controlled network to an actual permissionless, censorship resistant blockchain. If this move pans out well and the network actually satisfies the basic conditions of decentralization – NEO will get a big legitimacy boost for their future.
For now, we can state the obvious: NEO is still a centralized blockchain with couple of bigger incidents from the past under its belt (the network was offline on two occasions, there were some apparent coding mistakes revealed as well).
Why will NEO succeed?
It is led by a relatively reputable City of Zion and NEO Foundation and personas that paint a professional picture in public. There are regular events, hackathons, communication with holders is good, community management is also good, dapps ecosystem is growing with couple of them already building up a solid name for themselves (Travala, Switcheo etc).
All of this indicates that NEO has a solid team behind the project that has a really steep mountain in front of itself that needs to be conquered. Holding NEO in 2019 and beyond is a high risk but even higher reward situation. So, if your investing profile mixes well with this type of asset, NEO and your portfolio would fit like a hand and glove.
Will NEO reach $100 or $1000 or at least its previous all time high?
Is NEO dead?
All of this summed up means one thing: NEO might live through couple of orchestrated and, for a regular trader, completely unpredictable pumps but the majority of time will be murky sideways trading with small volume and no significant interest from the market.
Price will heavily depend on what BTC will do and since many analysts think BTC will not be making big moves in this year, it is hard to expect NEO will do them either. The price will probably stagnate and record slow-moving depreciation or appreciation depending on the team activity, potential technological breakthrough or high-level partnership.
Market prediction for Neo – NEO Price 2019
With the market being completely unpredictable, forecasting the cryptocurrency price is really more of a gamble and luck rather than a data driven guesstimate.
Let’s throw a glance at the eminent publications and personalities, and their predictions regarding the NEO price, which will give us another point of view to consider:
Cryptoground.com is cryptocurrecy prediction algorithm that is moderately to overly bullish on most of coins, similarly on NEO token as well. They forecast NEO to climb up to $30 per token by EOY, which means a 3x increase in comparison to the current price.
Walletinvestor is a popular website that does technical analysis-based price predictions of various cryptocurrencies and traditionally has a skeptical outlook for most coins, but especially for NEO. According to them, NEO is expected to sink by more than 4x – from the current $9.37 to $2.27 by the end of the year.
Trading beasts is on a diametrically opposite side of Walletinvestor and sees a much more bullish future for Neo token. Their algo forecasts that NEO can ascend to around $25 within a year which means it will essentially grow 2.5x in value in the next year.
Another crypto prediction algorithm that is most conservative in its approach of the 4 we enumerated here – DCP usually predicts price to hover around the same level as the current state, forecasting a twofold increase or reduction for certain coins. NEO is on the bullish side of their algo that sees it reaching $18 per coin by December 2019.
Neo Coin Future: 2020, 2023, 2025
NEO Price Prediction 2020
NEO has been one of the most hyped crypto projects that was a true media darling even during the peak of 2017 crypto frenzy that spawned thousands of new coins. However, despite the big hype built behind it, there is a shroud of doubt around the token’s viability and general competence of NEO team to pull off the laid out plan. Long-term NEO seems to be a risky investment and price in 2020 might float around the same level as now – $9.37.
NEO Price Prediction 2023
If NEO survives to see 2023, the token would surely be at 10-100x of the current value which means it would be at $90 – $900 per token.
NEO Price Prediction 2025
Again, should NEO survive to see 2025, the token would surely be at 100x+ of the current value which means it would be at $900+ per token.
Realistic NEO Price Prediction
Predicting prices of novel, highly volatile and risky asset classes is a thankless task – best answer is no one knows. Educated guess is that realistic NEO price for the foreseeable future is somewhere between its current price and its all time high of $160.
We don’t yet know which crypocurrencies will make it out of the crypto winter we’re wandering in right now. There are plenty of coins that stand a good chance of weathering the crypto storm and perhaps becoming more relevant as the market contracts and devours some of the weaker projects. However, there are even more of those projects who are already dead but no one noticed yet.
But, looking at things from this point in time and place, it’s reasonable to say that Neo had its five minutes of glory that was based on nothing but hype. It is now time for NEO to step up and actually deliver something valuable and palpable to justify the past and possible future hypes.