Mirroring previous upswings, Bitcoin’s [BTC] bullish rise isn’t looking to slow down anytime soon. Notably, some coins have failed to join the party. The most significant coin among them, XRP.
In 2019, the second largest altcoin in the market saw a slump against the price of Bitcoin, owing to the growing dominance and price push of the king coin.
For the first time in 2019, the XRP/BTC chart showed positive signs as the altcoin took the baton from the king coin to spearhead the latest market surge. As can be seen from the below chart, XRP took off on 14 May, following seven consecutive red-marred candles.
Owing to the announcement by Coinbase regarding XRP trading for New Yorkers, coinciding with the forever-bullish Consensus conference, XRP saw a massive +30 percent rise, even seeing a mammoth 6 percent hourly price gain on 15 May.
However, despite current trends showing positive returns for the Ripple-controlled virtual currency, its performance against Bitcoin is contrary to previous years.
As a recent report from Longhash pointed out, XRP has “lost nearly half of its bitcoin-denominated value,” in 2019 alone. Citing Trading View, the crypto-analytics firm stated that XRP rose by a whopping 1600 percent against the king coin in 2017, despite BTC nearing $20,000 later in the year.
The next two years were not so fruitful for the altcoin though. In 2018, the price of XRP, in terms of BTC, dropped by 14.5 percent and with just five months into 2019, XRP has already plummeted by 46.6 percent.
Since Coinbase reigned in the XRP bulls thanks to an overdue listing on the exchange, the XRP market has been fairly quiet. Longhash stated that since the Coinbase listing, the price of XRP against BTC has “plummeted.”
The Nasdaq XRP Liquid Index announcement in partnership with Brave New Coin is the only other standout announcement that has blessed XRP markets.
In 2017, the report concluded, the rush towards buying XRP over Bitcoin and other highly priced cryptocurrencies was because of “Unit Bias,” where investors were scared off due to the sheer price of Bitcoin, which at the time was in five-digits.
With XRP and XLM largely left out of the Bitcoin-induced bull run, bank coins are changing course and finally heading into the green, with both coins seeing over 9 percent daily gains. XRP’s turnover against Bitcoin is also down to the BTC bulls backing off over the past few hours. However, to get back to winning ways, consecutive green candlesticks will hold XRP in good stead.
Tables turn as XRP’s ‘chosen one’ voices concerns about XRPL decentralization
XRP and Ripple have always been known to have an active community, on and off Twitter, with community members looking forward to the success of its ecosystem. The community seems to be putting up a good front, despite XRP’s price falling steadily. However, while some XRP enthusiasts continue to hang in there, others have lost hope and turned to other cryptos.
The two most notable members of the community are [or were] Dr. T and Tiffany Hayden. While Dr. T has been AWOL for almost half a year now, Hayden seems to be harbouring growing concerns about Ripple and the state of the XRP Ledger. In a tweet thread, Hayden revealed how not a lot of people, including “paying customers,” are running a validator and how this could pose a threat to the ecosystem.
Vaguely speaking, a PoW network like Bitcoin gets more decentralized, with more miners joining the network. Similarly, as a PoC network like XRP gets more decentralized, the more validators it has.
For long, people have said that Ripple controls the network since it owns a lot of validators, something that was briefly true until other people started running validator nodes. Lately, people have been noting that if this continues, XRP and XRP Ledger could face major setbacks in development.
Referring to the validator argument, Hayden tweeted,
“They [validators] have become a central point of failure, IMO. The exact thing we are supposed to be avoiding. No XRPL services with paying customers are running validators like we expected them to. We have to acknowledge this.”
In addition to the above “concern,” there is another growing concern about the beginning of the downfall of XRP, with respect to Xpring. An initiative set up by Ripple with a clear goal to “invest, incubate, acquire and provide grants to companies and projects run by proven entrepreneurs,” Xpring will “use the digital asset XRP and the XRP Ledger, the open-sourced, decentralized technology behind XRP to solve its customers’ problems in a transformative way.”
Recently however, the projects that are being invested in by Xpring have started to deviate from XRP, XRP Ledger and ILP, and towards their own goals. While this may be productive to the crypto-ecosystem as a whole, it is definitely not for the XRP ecosystem.
“It Ripple shutters tonight, the network won’t last long much longer.”
David Schwartz, the genius behind XRP ledger and the man speculated by many to be Satoshi Nakamoto, stepped in to alleviate Hayden’s concerns. Schwartz took a rather neutral stance and stated,
“There isn’t going to be a clear straight line between every Xpring investment and XRP. Some of them are going to be aimed at ILP which we believe indirectly helps XRP and some will be aimed at the crypto ecosystem generally… I would be much more worried if you see us not helping projects that you think could provide value.”
Hayden firmly believes that there aren’t a lot of customers running validators as of now, and that there isn’t any reason to believe that somebody will in the future. Leonardo DiCaprio said it best in the movie Inception,
XRP hovers below its December 2018 price; has the bull rally left it behind?
Numbers and statistics define and explain almost everything we need to know in the financial landscape. For example, 2019 has been collectively accepted as a bullish year for the cryptocurrency market, with a majority of virtual assets boasting incredible growth since the demise of the crypto-winter. However, some of these stats can be slightly misleading.
December 2018 is widely recognized as the low point of the crypto-winter, with all major assets recording major devaluation. In fact, some of these assets fell to levels which were over 90% off from their all-time highs in 2017.
XRP was one such cryptocurrency that dropped down by almost 90 percent in December 2018. While XRP peaked at $3.60 back in the bull run of 2017, its valuation was down to $0.39 the following year.
Fortunately, the crypto-winter ended in April and the market’s resurgence led by Bitcoin and the likes of Litecoin and Binance Coin resuscitated the market. In fact, Bitcoin was at one point up by almost 250 percent this year. However, the same cannot be said for XRP.
Source: Trading View
When the cryptocurrency market began to rally this year, XRP joined in and climbed its way to its yearly high of $0.475. However, since 22 June, the coin has progressively lost valuation and over the last few days, the token has dipped by almost 23 percent.
At press time, XRP was valued at $0.309, a value lower than the lows of December 2018, the height of the crypto-winter. In 2018, XRP’s low was recorded to be a $0.39, which is still 20 percent more than its current valuation. These figures suggest that despite the larger market rally, XRP itself is hardly having a bullish year.
This is a surprising finding since its parent company, Ripple, has been at the heart of changing the face of modern-day finance. With its numerous collaborations, partnerships and initiatives, Ripple’s stock has surged across the world. Unfortunately, this hasn’t translated to XRP’s price.
However, the digital asset was not the only token facing the repercussions of a decline. The likes of Bitcoin Cash, Tron and Stellar Lumens were also down by almost 90 percent from their all-time high at press time, even after recording positive growth in 2019.
Has the correlation between XRP/BTC and XRP/USD been severed?
Most altcoins tend to be correlated with Bitcoin. Sudden price movements will cause smaller altcoins paired with Bitcoin to do the same, which can be a boon and a bane for the project. XRP is no stranger to the correlation game, and is said to be strongly correlated with Bitcoin. However, according to a recent tweet by eToroX, the correlation between XRP/BTC and XRP/USD has been falling.
According to eToroX, the correlation coefficient, which is used to determine the extent of correlation, was at 0.51 in 2017. This correlation has come down to negative 0.63 now. A negative correlation coefficient means that the prices are not correlated anymore, and that XRP/BTC and XRP/USD pairs can move without being affected by the price of BTC.
According to CoinMetrics, the XRP/BTC correlation coefficient is still positive and so is the XRP/USDT correlation. As seen below, XRP/BTC’s Spearman correlation coefficient is 0.7626, a little lower than its all-time high of 0.8502. The Pearson correlation coefficient is also positive, i.e. 0.70. The XRP/USDT Spearman correlation is at 0.3502, while the Pearson correlation coefficient is at 0.30.
The XRP community has been eagerly waiting for a spike in XRP’s prices since 2018. However, the price has decided to stay quiet or tumble down. The community continues to wait with bated breath for the next ‘alt season,’ in hopes of the price going higher.
The price of XRP, at press time, was $0.31 and the market cap was at $13 billion, which puts it as the third largest cryptocurrency in the world, in terms of market cap. It is also very close to hitting its support level at $0.27, which has been breached six times in the past year.
News of the falling correlation was greeted positively by many in the community. Twitter user, @Bizhopcrypto, commented,
“This is actually a good representation of XRP’s ability to move independent of BTC in a sense…Although price action is moving south currently, we need that same correlation once XRP moves north as well #decouple”