A third of all ether, ethereum’s native cryptocurrency, is owned by just 376 whales as of May 1, new research indicates.
Blockchain analysis startup Chainalysis published a study on Wednesday, indicating that, while these 376 individuals control 33 percent of the circulating supply in 2019, that number is actually down from levels seen in 2016 and 2017.
The study also found these whales have “no meaningful” impact on the ETH price, but they do increase intraday volatility in the cryptocurrency market when they make large sell-offs.
Chainalysis defines whales as the top 500 holders of cryptocurrency, excluding services, who store their holdings off exchanges. It found that ether whales currently account for just 7 percent of all transaction activity.
The study further found that the majority (around 60 percent) of these whales are not active traders, meaning they are holding their assets and are not regularly trading on cryptocurrency exchanges.
That means they consistently hold 25–40 percent of the circulating supply of ETH and account for only 5-18 percent of transaction volume, Chainalysis said.
Further, using a vector autoregression (VAR) model, commonly used in financial time series analysis, Chainalysis found that ETH prices follow bitcoin (BTC) prices. That is, on average, a 1 percent increase in BTC price yesterday leads to a 1.1 percent increase in ETH price today. The study, however, did not find a “statistically significant” impact of BTC prices on ETH’s intraday volatility.
The study also analyzed the impact of whales sending and receiving funds to and from exchanges using a VAR model. It found that funds sent do impact volatility but not price, while funds received have no impact either on prices or intraday volatility.
“These preliminary findings are consistent with the literature on stock market prices and volatility,” Chainalysis concluded. “Academics have found that large anomalous fluctuations in traded volumes of particular stocks, notably the S&P 500, tend to impact volatility and not price levels.”
Ethereum’s Bearish Wave Count Outlined by Cryptocurrency Analyst
Ethereum is the second-largest cryptocurrency when ranked by its market capitalization. It made headlines on Monday when its co-founder was spotted in the company of several Chinese investors and internet moguls. This could have been the reason for a nearly 10 percent increase in the price of the altcoin.
However, despite this price spike, Ethereum has been on a downward trend for the prior 110 days.
According to him, the price is ready to make a downward move towards $170.
While the short-term wave count seems correct, we want to look at the longer-term price action to decide the Ethereum price outlook and find a target for the end of the downward move.
Ethereum Wave Count
Looking at the price movement since Ethereum reached a low of $83 on December 7, 2018, we believe the ETH price has finished a five-wave upward move when it reached a high of $363 on June 26, 2019.
Since then, the Ethereum price has been trading inside of a descending wedge. The descending wedge is a bullish pattern, making a price breakout more likely. While inside its confines, ETH has either finished the final corrective C-wave or is very close to doing so.
However, it is also right at the resistance line of the pattern. Therefore, even though the wedge is a bullish pattern, we could definitely see an extension of the downward leg towards the support area if the price does not break out immediately.
When we look at the daily moving averages (MAs), the possibility of a breakout is greatly reduced.
The 100- and 200-day MAs have just made a bearish cross and are providing close resistance to the price.
A bullish cross between the two MAs occurred in May and preceded an increase of more than 100 percent.
The current bearish cross could very well be a precursor to a similar decrease. However, due to the support area outlined near $160 and the projected end of the wedge, we do not believe this decrease will have the same magnitude.
What Will Happen?
Looking at the four-hour chart to which @smartcontracter alluded to, we can see a short-term ascending support line. Combining it with the descending resistance line from the wedge, we get a symmetrical triangle which is projected to end in two days.
A decisive move should occur by that time.
Based on our long-term analysis, we agree with the statement made by @smartcontracter that the price is likely to initiate a downward move.
Ethereum’s price may be hit by a breach of the ascending channel
Ethereum noted a fall of 9.40% in the month of September, pulling the value of the coin from $204.80 to $185.54. However, October provided some relief after the price noted a rise of 9.82%, taking the price from $172.16 to $189.14. The second largest coin in the cryptocurrency market currently stands priced at $184.82, with a market cap of $19.98 billion.
However, the long-term chart has predicted that the rise could only be momentary and that the coin might note a fall.
Daily ETH chart
Source: ETH/USD on TradingView
The daily chart for Ethereum suggested the formation of an ascending channel. This channel, characterized by two upward sloping lines, marked the higher highs at $177.12, $183.85, and $200.98 and higher lows at $152.04, $168.56, and $176.51. According to the nature of the formed pattern, a breakout towards the downside may take place with its breach.
The moving average 50 lay under the moving average 100 for the 62nd consecutive day. The averages rested above the candlesticks, indicating a highly bearish market. Even though the MACD indicator suggests a bullish market, the reduced momentum implies that a reversal of trend could be possible.
The long-term chart for Ethereum points at a devaluation in the value of the coin, as it breaches out of the ascending channel.
Ethereum (ETH) Breaks Range Resistance But Bitcoin Still Struggling
- Ethereum price climbed above the key $185 resistance area against the US Dollar.
- Bitcoin price is still struggling to recover and is facing a strong resistance near $8,400.
- There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $183 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
- The pair is currently consolidating above $185 and it could rise towards $192 or $195.
Ethereum price is showing positive signs versus the US Dollar and bitcoin. ETH price must stay above $185 to continue higher in the near term.
Ethereum Price Analysis
Yesterday, we saw range moves in Ethereum above the $175 and $178 supports against the US Dollar. Finally, the price formed a support base above $180 and later managed to climb higher. It surpassed the $185 resistance area to start the current recovery. Moreover, there was a close above the $185 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
During the rise, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $183 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The pair tested the $188 area and it is currently correcting gains. At the moment, the price is trading below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $180 swing low to $188 high. On the downside, there is a strong support forming near the $185 level (the previous resistance).
Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $180 swing low to $188 high is also positioned near the $185 level. The next key support is near the $184 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If there is a downside break and close below the $184 support area, Ethereum price could move back into a bearish zone. In the mentioned case, the price is likely to revisit the $178 support.
On the upside, the $188 level is an initial hurdle for the bulls. A successful break above the $188 level could push the price towards the $192 resistance. Any further upsides may perhaps call for a push towards the $195 resistance area.
Looking at the chart, Ethereum price is showing positive signs above the $185 level, while bitcoin is still facing a strong resistance near $8,400. As long as ETH is above $184, there are chances of more gains in the near term. The bulls are likely to target $192 or $195. Conversely, the price could revisit $178 if it breaks $184.
ETH Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is slowly moving into the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is currently correcting lower towards the 50 level.
Major Support Level – $184
Major Resistance Level – $192