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Ethereum (ETH) Might Retest $280 But Long Term Outlook Remains Bearish

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Although quite unlikely, it is possible that ETH/USD might test the $280 level again and even rally towards $300 before beginning its next decline. That being said, it is not a good idea to take that trade as the risk/reward is definitely not worth it. The 4H chart for ETH/USD shows that the price is trading within a descending channel and an ascending triangle at the same time. The perfect scenario for the whales if they can pull it off would be to pump the price above the ascending triangle first to trap in retail bulls and hunt the bears. Then they would pull it back into the descending channel to trap the bulls. At every trading setup, the market maker is looking for ways to take advantage of retail traders especially around turning points.

This is why most traders believe in going with the flow although going with the flow in this market could mean being a dead fish at certain times. The ideal play here would be to wait for a break out and see if price enters the descending channel. There is no doubt whatsoever that ETH/USD is long overdue for a sharp retracement and at some point that will happen. However that move is more likely to come at a point when both the bulls and the bears least expect it just like the recent rally. A lot of bulls feel very euphoric at the moment but most of them did not see the current rally coming. A lot of people on both sides were taken by surprise when Ethereum (ETH) pumped in that manner. Now, instead of being worried, most of them just got onboard and forget about their opinions before that pump. Some ‘reputed’ traders even took a 180 degrees turn like nothing had happened.

Ethereum (ETH) shorts are still struggling as retail bears fear a rally to $300. Considering what they have seen in the past few weeks, it is reasonable to see that most of them are too scared to take a trade at this point even if the risk/reward is worth it. ETHUSDShorts has been struggling to break past the 50 day moving average but it has yet to succeed. The number of margined shorts could rise towards the top of the channel as early as next month as sell pressure on ETH/USD mounts. The market is not short of catalysts that could trigger Ethereum (ETH)’s next decline at this point.

As mentioned in our last analysis on ETH/USD, there is a strong bearish divergence on the weekly time frame that points to massive downside ahead. One thing to note here is that traders that are patient always see the price coming to them instead of them chasing the price. When BTC/USD fell to $6,000 a lot of people FOMO’ed into the market thinking this was it, but that was not it. Not as many people FOMO’ed in the $3,000s but they did soon afterwards. Either way, this is not the bottom. When ETH/USD bottoms, we will see more of “Ethereum (ETH) is a scam” and “Ethereum is going to zero”. At that point most of these overly excited retail bulls would want nothing to do with Ethereum (ETH) or any other cryptocurrencies.

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Ethereum

Ethereum chucks the CUP; bullish breakout may break the handle

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Ethereum is nearing the edge, and the CUP might be the first to fall off.

The second largest cryptocurrency in the market has turned over a new leaf. Intrinsic community and technology developments aside, from a price perspective, Ethereum has had a bullish few days. Beginning the week with a massive green rally with fellow altcoin heavyweight XRP, the two led the market with double digit gains.

Not letting the rally be a one-off and allowing correction bears to take over, Ethereum is holding on, even as Bitcoin’s price descends into four digits. Trading at $208 at press time, the coin is just $8 off its peak during the current bullish cycle. Given how the charts have been laid out, this breakout could be the start of something special for the altcoin.

SHORT TERM

Source: TradingView

A clear parallel channel is being formed, and it is on the ascent. Following the recent rally, coupled with strong fundamentals emanating from the coin’s network activity, the channel looks to persist.

There is although, an absence of a consistent array of higher-highs, and the higher lows are stacked. Placed at $168, $175, $180, and $190, the coin has been yo-yoing, but has managed to move higher with every downward movement. Looking down, the closet support level lies at $180, which barring a massive sell-off, looks unlikely to be tested. Looking up, things get interesting. Ethereum, during the recent upswing, bounced off the resistance level placed at $217, which the coin is not too far off from, despite dropping below $210.

Finally, in the short term, the level of $233 is also significant, as the price bounced off the same on three occasions: 15 July, 25 July and 6 August. In over two months, ETH’s price has not crossed this margin. Hence, a move over $217, coupled with strong technicals, could buoy the market over $233.

LONG TERM 

Source: TradingView

In the long term, Ethereum seems to be breaking out in a very stark fashion. An initial look at the 1-week ETH chart reveals a vague, but present formation of a ‘CUP,’ created due to the bearish movement of 2018, preceding the bullish [relatively] 2019.

The left cup lip began in July 2018, and sparked a price valley, thanks in large part to the crypto-winter which took the collective market cap to $100 billion from over $800 billion earlier in the year. In 2019, bullish sentiment took over the market, and the coin’s price surged from $80 to over $320 in June, the top of the right lip. July and August began to see slumping movement, more drizzle than downpour, leading to the formation of a parallel channel, or a handle.

Despite sustaining itself within the channel, the recent price surge, if sustained through the end of the month, could lead to the handle being broken. The handle, at press time, marks a resistance of $221, and a move out of the same could result in a breakout from the handle and imminent bullish movement.

To conclude, the key resistance levels are placed at $217, $221, and $233, the first and third based on the movements in July and August, and the second owing to a surge out of the ‘Cup and Handle’ formation.

However, a simple breakout over the same will not be easy for two reasons. First, earlier this month ETH broke into its ‘Death Cross,’ spelling bearish movement and second, Bakkt is launching its physically delivered Bitcoin Futures next week, a development which could lead to a shift from altcoins to the king coin once again.

Source:ambcrypto

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Indicator shows Ethereum accumulation is surging: main factors behind the rally

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According to Elias Simos, a senior research analyst at Decentral Park Capital, Ethereum recorded net exchange outflows for the first time since May, following the recovery of the cryptocurrency market and the Ethereum price.

Net outflows refer to investors moving funds out of a cryptocurrency exchange to either personal wallets like a non-custodial wallet or a cold wallet to store the asset securely over the long run.

Often, net outflows on cryptocurrency exchanges for assets like ETH occur when the confidence of investors towards the short to medium term trend of the asset rises.

Since September 1, within less than three weeks, the Ethereum price increased from $165 to $217 at its weekly peak, by more than 31 percent against the U.S. dollar.

Why the Ethereum price is surging strongly against both BTC and USD

As said by Ethereum analysts including Anthony Sassano, a product market manager at Set Protocol, the Ethereum blockchain protocol has seen an overall increase in usage in recent months.

Indicators of Ethereum growth
Indicators of Ethereum growth (source: IntoTheBlock)

On Sept. 16, the Ethereum network processed record high activity on its protocol in the form of transactions and smart contracts, indicating that despite an 85 percent drop from its all-time high, the usage of ETH is consistently increasing.

Sassano said:

“Ethereum flipped Bitcoin in daily fees today. You know what’s even more striking about this image? The fees paid on the other blockchains don’t even come anywhere close to Bitcoin & Ethereum which signals to me that there is practically zero demand for these platforms.”

The strong short term trend of ETH is supported by fundamental factors like increasing network usage and daily fees but the major catalyst behind the surge in the Ethereum price is said to have been its steep decline in mid-2019.

At its lowest point in 2019, the Ethereum price fell to as low as $80 across regulated cryptocurrency exchanges, hovering at the low $100 range throughout the first two quarters of the year.

The 93 percent drop from its record high at $1,448 to the low $100 region led the Ethereum price to demonstrate oversold conditions.

When the Ethereum price recovered beyond $190, which has acted as a relatively heavy resistance level for the cryptocurrency, it quickly its made its way to establishing a monthly high.

Other potential factors

Ethereum is anticipating the release of its 2.0 version in 2020 and expectations of improved scalability to provide a more practical environment for both developers and users are rising.

At the Ethereal conference, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said:“[First step of the 2.0 version is] finalized except for things that come up during the security audits. The clients are now talking to each other. The next step is to make sure they can maintain a public network at scale.

The next step is to make sure they can maintain a public network at scale. We’re talking about potentially hundreds of thousands of validators aggregating a huge number of transactions.”

The anticipation of users towards the 2.0 release, the noticeable increase in the usage of the network, and the recovery of the Ethereum price over an important resistance level are likely fueling the short term momentum of the cryptocurrency.

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Will Ethereum Classic Price Start an Upward Trend?

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  • Ethereum Classic price has been moving in a flattish range over the past day.

ETC has managed to stand ground in the ongoing bearish trend in the crypto market, though the price has shown variations since the beginning of July. The past one-day price trend has seen ETC moving in a flattish range above the baseline price of $6.4-$6.5.

ETC to USD Price Comparison

The past one-day price shows a flattish trend for ETC on September 18. On 2:32 UTC, the price was at $6.5322. It was moving in a slight range for most of the day and then at 21:38 UTC fell to $6.3840 by 2.27%. The current day’s price is at $5.9746, which shows a downward movement to the extent of 6.41%.

Ethereum Classic Price
Ethereum Classic Price Chart By TradingView

Ethereum Classic Price Prediction

Ethereum Classic has managed to maintain its momentum even in the bearish momentum. Analysts expect this short-term bearish trend to pass and ETC to get back on track in the medium-term.

Conclusion

Investors should hold their current investments from a long-term perspective. Short-term and day traders should exercise caution while trading.

Source.cryptonewsz.

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