- Bitcoin fell $1,100 on Thursday, creating a bearish candle on the daily chart and confirming a bearish divergence of a key indicator.
- Prices risk falling to the 30-day moving average (MA), currently at $7,342, in the next few days.
- The pullback could be short-lived, as BTC tends to perform well in June, and the long-term bull case is still intact.
- The case for BTC extending its four-month winning streak in June would weaken if the price finds acceptance below the 30-day MA.
Bitcoin is teasing short-term bearish reversal at the onset of the historically good month of June.
The premiere cryptocurrency is currently trading at $8,300 – down 4.5 percent on a 24-hour basis – after having hit a new 12-month high of $9,097 on Thursday.
The rise above the psychological level of $9,000 was short-lived, as expected, with prices falling back to $8,600 by 16:15 UTC. The cryptocurrency went on to hit an intraday low of $8,000 before printing a UTC close at $8,378.
The sudden $1,100 pullback from one-year highs ended up engulfing the price action seen in the previous three trading days – a sign of buyer exhaustion.
Further, prices closed below the key support of $8,390 (May 16 high), invalidating the bullish higher high established above that level on May 26.
The price pullback looks to have legs, as trading volumes on Bitstamp doubled on Thursday as prices dropped. BTC, therefore, could remain on the defensive in the first week of June.
However, the bulls may get a boost, as historical data shows the cryptocurrency tends to do well in the final month of the second quarter.
- BTC has scored gains in June in five out of the last seven years.
- Prices fell 14.77 percent last year, snapping the three-year June winning run.
- The 27.85 percent price rise seen in 2012 is bitcoin’s best June performance to date.
BTC created a “bearish outside day” candle on Thursday, which occurs when the day begins on a positive note but ends with pessimism.
That candlestick pattern is widely considered an early sign of bullish-to-bearish trend change, especially when it appears after a prolonged rally.
Traders usually wait for a strong follow through – preferably a UTC close below the bearish candle’s low – before adopting a bearish bias.
The focus, therefore, is on $8,000 (Thursday’s low). Acceptance below that level will likely invite stronger selling pressure, leading to a deeper drop, possibly to the historically strong support of the 30-day moving average, currently at $7,342.
With the relative strength index (RSI) reporting bearish divergence – lower highs as opposed to higher highs on price – and volumes rising sharply, a break below $8,000 looks likely.
While the odds are stacked in favor of a deeper correction, the cryptocurrency could still manage to eke out gains in June for the fifth straight month if the 30-day MA reverses the pullback.
The cryptocurrency has charted higher lows along the 30-day MA throughout the rally from $3,500 to $9,000.
Also, the case for a drop to the 30-day MA at $7,342 would weaken if the support at $8,000 holds ground over the weekend. In that case, BTC could rise back to $9,0oo.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
Bitcoin technical analysis: Support levels are in focus for now
- Bitcoin is struggling once again but the price has found some support at an internal trendline.
- Below the price level at the moment is the psychological 8,000 level.
Bitcoin is struggling like most cryptocurrencies today. The BTC/USD pair is currently trading 2.63% lower as sentiment remains weak. The price on the hourly chart is making lower highs and lower lows after the pivotal 8,233.00 support level was broken. The price is currently just under the value area now 8,164.17. This is the price where most contracts have been traded on the Coinbase exchange.
The interesting thing on the chart is the internal trendline it was respected five times in total. Two times in a previous wave series and then three more times after it was broken on October 9th. The next support level is at the 8K psychological support level and below that the consolidation low of 7701.00.
On the daily chart, the price is still firmly in a downtrend and this will only continue if the wave low of 7701.00 is broken to the downside. On the upside there is some way to go before the consolidation wave high is taken out at 8,826.00. Only when this is broken can we talk about a price recovery.
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Bitcoin Whale Transfers Almost $25M in BTC from Binance to Gemini
A major player in the cryptocurrency space has just moved 3,000 BTC from Binance to Gemini. The reason for the transfer is still not clear.
It seems like yet another whale in the cryptocurrency market is again flaunting his or her money. A recent massive transfer was picked up by Whale Alert (@whale_alert) which notified the rest of the cryptocurrency community that 3,000 BTC ($25M) was being moved from Binance to Gemini.
There are a few possible catalysts for such a major move, but it seems most likely that someone is cashing out some BTC on Gemini through an OTC sale. Interestingly enough, the move came just a few hours after Bitcoin rebounded from the $8,280 price point to $8,380 or so.
Major whales have been making moves in the past few days. As BeInCrypto has reported on this past week, just two days ago one whale moved 1,000 BTC to an external wallet presumably to HODL. Another whale yesterday moved 650 BTC ($5.3M) from Coinbase to an external wallet as well, another indication that accumulation is happening behind the scenes. This uptick in high-value transfers to external wallets indicates that something may be brewing in the background.
However, this particular transfer of 3,000 BTC does not appear to be a whale interested in HODL’ing. Instead, this is transfer is likely for a possible sale or, at the very best, purchasing of altcoins on Gemini. The market has not responded to this transfer, but this is just one piece of the puzzle.
Recently, the market has been quiet, but the odd increase in high-value transfers makes one wonder — could we see a major move for Bitcoin in the coming weeks? Maybe the whales are giving us a hint.
‘Satoshi’ Enters the Oxford English Dictionary
The Oxford English Dictionary, published by the Oxford University Press, has added “satoshi” to its compendium of the English language.
First used less than seven years ago, satoshi is the newest word added to the dictionary. The addition was made as part of a quarterly update to the respected source’s database that also includes the words “Manhattanhenge,” “whatevs” and a revised history of “fake news.”
According to the now official OED definition, a satoshi is “the smallest monetary unit in the bitcoin digital payment system, equal to one hundred millionth of a bitcoin,” or 0.00000001 BTC.
OED lexicographers take a descriptive approach to language, meaning that the dictionary observes how words emerge, grow or diminish in popularity and change definitions over time.
The OED’s policy says:
“Our role is to monitor and record emerging vocabulary so that we can make new terms available to our dictionary users as soon as they start to gain traction.”
Cited uses of the noun come from Ripple Project, a Usenet newsgroup in 2012, from the Guardian in 2013 and the Times in 2017.
The OED notes American and British pronunciations differ. Stateside, the “o” in Satoshi is pronounced like the “ʊ” sound in foot, whereas across the pond the “o” sounds like the “ɒ” in “lot.”
The word is derived from the proper noun, Satoshi Nakamoto, the “probably pseudonymous” creator or creators of bitcoin. In this context, Nakamoto is an etymon, or a word from which a later word is derived.
Curiously, the authorities on grammar state Nakamoto was “reportedly born in 1975,” referring to one of the only bread crumbs left behind by the mysterious founder when asked to give a birth date on a website where he first described the plan for bitcoin.