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Bitcoin Hitting $10,000 Will Kickstart Mass FOMO, Quadruple BTC in Months: Fundstrat

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The Bitcoin (BTC) bull run has barely even started, but Fundstrat Global Advisors is absolutely euphoric. In a graphic published recently, the investment advisory firm suggested that the “Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)” is quickly materializing in the cryptocurrency markets, boding well for BTC’s performance in the short to medium term.

Fundstrat’s Lee Bullish on Bitcoin

In a recent research note, posted by Financial Times’ Adam Samson, the firm’s head of research Tom Lee explained that the Bitcoin market is currently experiencing “Level 5” FOMO according to Fundstrat’s  “Degree of FOMO” scale. As seen above, this doesn’t mean that the cryptocurrency market has peaked though.

Fundstrat notes that investors have yet to experience “full-blown” FOMO, marked by a reading of “Level 10”. It is unclear how Fundstrat came to such a conclusion, but the company’s analysts are known for using the Bitcoin Misery Index to determine overall investor sentiment and the market’s overall direction.

Related Reading: Institutional FOMO to Drive Bitcoin Price Beyond $20,000 And To Unseen Heights

Once Bitcoin reaches $10,000, “Level 10” FOMO will grace this market, which last occurred when BTC blipped above $4,500 in late-2017. If history is any guide, the cryptocurrency market will shoot even higher once $10,000 is breached. As Lee wrote on Twitter earlier this month, “[$10,000] will see FOMO from those who gloated about the 90% crash in BTC… and those who saw Bitcoin dead as forever.”

While Fundstrat has long had its eye on the $10,000 price point, its analysts never indicated a price target — until now anyway.

In a recent podcast with Binance’s chief financial officer, Wei Zhou, Lee explained that once $10,000 is breached, all hell will break loose for the cryptocurrency market. This corroborates the aforementioned analysis of this nascent market’s “FOMO levels”.

Per CCN, which reported on this first, the Wall

Street analyst stated that once $10,000 is breached, there will be a “fast and furious” move to $20,000. And from there, Bitcoin will double in the next five months, reaching $40,000 in a jaw-dropping move.

Is $40,000 Possible? 

While $40,000 seems miles away — and it is — many are sure that this price point is within Bitcoin’s grasp, even in the medium term. Analyst PlanB, known for his use of the stock-to-flow ratio (SF), recently explained that the impending block reward reduction will give Bitcoin a fair valuation of $55,000.

Per previous reports from NewsBTC, he explained that BTC abides by similar valuation rules than gold’s, in that you can use its inflation rate to determine a “fair” valuation. As it stands, Bitcoin has an SF ratio of around 25, implying an inflation rate of 4%. Once the halving hits, however, Bitcoin’s SF ratio will move past 50 to approach that of gold, giving BTC a lower inflation rate than most fiat currencies.

With there being a “nice linear relationship” between SF and the market valuation of an asset, PlanB suggests that Bitcoin would be fairly valued at $1 trillion, giving each coin a price of $55,000.

While $55,000 for each BTC seems irrational for most, PlanB writes that money from silver, gold, negative interest rate economies, authoritarian and capital control-rife states, billionaires looking for a quantitative easing hedge, and institutional investors will eventually flood into this space.

This in and of itself may seem like a pipe dream, but some are sure that this is likely, especially with the increase in hyperinflation, fiscal mismanagement, and speculators looking for attractive alternative investment opportunities.

Some have been even more optimistic, however, stating that $40,000 will be just the tip of the iceberg. In fact, many have looked to $250,000 or even $333,000 as long-term price targets. We’ll need to wait and see though.

by: https://www.newsbtc.com

Bitcoin

Crypto Analyst Says: Bitcoin Price to Head for $18,000 with ‘Halving Pre-Pump’ in Three Months

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With Bitcoin and the crypto market pumping again and the Bitcoin halving drawing closer, more crypto analysts and traders are expecting BTC to start pumping hard soon. Among the figures that have been voiced so far are $11,000 and $18,000 per Bitcoin if the price begins to accelerate in April, prior to the halving.

‘The target is $18,000’

Analyst @CryptoMichNL believes that the current situation in the cryptomarket has started resembling January 2016, which he has recently been referring to often – the time when the market went into tremendous volatility. This should last for about three months now, he states, and then he expects Bitcoin to start pumping, powered by the approaching halving in May.

The expert believes the price target to be $18,000. The all-time high Bitcoin reached in 2017 was $19,772 – on December 17.

‘Bitcoin is about to rip to $11k’

Investor and trader ‘D.I.Y Investing’ suggests there is a Parabolic SAR on the chart. He expects Bitcoin to surge to $11,000.

The trader also points out that the Bitcoin dominance on the market is getting higher. ‘D.I.Y Investing’ concludes that it will be altcoins that may lead the next rally.

BTC 2

Image via Twitter

‘The crypto market is very sentiment driven’

Crypto expert and columnist Joseph Young believes that pretty much everything on the crypto market depends on investor sentiment. Young tweets that this makes it unpredictable and that a price rise or a price fall may suddenly increase just when you expect it the least.

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The upcoming halving could push Bitcoin to new all-time highs

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Bitcoin is only 117 days away from a block rewards reduction event that affects the number of tokens that can be generated every 10 minutes. Based on historical data, this event tends to serve as a catalyst that propels the flagship cryptocurrency into new all-time highs.

The Halving Event

Bitcoin goes through a fixed process known as the halving every time 210,000 BTC blocks are mined. This is considered the core economic model in BTC’s protocol that guarantees that coins are issued at a steady pace. The halving takes place, approximately, every four years. It cuts in half the rewards miners get for mining a block, consequently, decreasing the rate of issuance.

Around May 12, 2020, at exactly block 630,000, miners who are currently being awarded 12.5 new BTC for every block they solve will only be rewarded with 6.25 BTC per block. The inflation rate of this cryptocurrency will also be impacted for an extended period of time as the reduction in future supply increases.

The series of block rewards reduction events are scheduled to occur until the total supply of 21 million BTC are mined. These events could prolong until 2140 when the block reward would drop below 1 satoshi, assuming that miners will be around in the next 120 years.

Bitcoin's Supply Curve
Bitcoin’s Supply Curve By Messari

Previous Block Rewards Reduction Events

To date, there have only been two halving events since Bitcoin was launched on Jan. 3, 2009. These events have proven to be an important catalyst that pushes the price of this crypto up before and after they take place. BTC’s disinflationary monetary policy has allowed its value to enhance significantly as it becomes more scarce.

The 2012 Halving

On Nov. 28, 2012, Bitcoin went through its first halving, at a block height of 210,000. During that time, the block rewards provided to miners dropped from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC. Such a significant supply reduction had a great impact on the price of the pioneer cryptocurrency, which was perceived in anticipation of the event and after it occurred.

After reaching a market bottom of $2 on Nov. 19, 2011, Bitcoin entered a year-long bull rally. This cryptocurrency saw its price appreciate by nearly 500% in anticipation of the first halving. By the time the event concluded on Nov. 28, 2012, BTC was trading around $12. From that point, Bitcoin skyrocketed over 97x peaking at an all-time high of $1,177 on Nov. 30, 2013.

Bitcoin's price action before and after its first halving
BTC/USD by TradingView

The 2016 Halving

The second block rewards reduction event took place on July 9, 2016, at a block height of 420,000. At the time, the 25 BTC mining reward halved to 12.5 BTC per block. Like the first halving, this one also had serious implications on the price of Bitcoin.

On Jan. 14, 2015, Bitcoin hit a market bottom at a price of $164 following the 2014 bear market. Since then, BTC surged by nearly 300 percent to a high of $650 on the

day the halving was set to occur. After the pioneer cryptocurrency went through its second halving on July 9, 2016, it entered a parabolic advance that saw its price increase by 29x. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $19,765 on Dec. 17, 2017.

Bitcoin's price action before and after its second halving
BTC/USD by TradingView

History Repeats Itself

The previous halvings have demonstrated to be a significant pivotal point in Bitcoin’s trend. They tend to propel the price of the flagship cryptocurrency into new all-time highs. Therefore, the upcoming block rewards reduction event could have similar implications.

Thus far, it seems like Bitcoin reached a market bottom on Dec. 15, 2018, at a price of $3,150. Since then, this cryptocurrency is up over 180 percent and is currently trading around $8,700. Now, investors appear to anticipate higher prices as the date approaches.

Bitcoin's price action before its third havling
BTC/USD by TradingView

The Wisdom of the Crowd

Alex Kruger recently ran a poll on Twitter that involved over 4,000 participants. Kruger asked his followers what they thought will be the high of the year for Bitcoin.

The results show that 47 percent of the respondents believe that BTC would trade above $20,000 sometime this year. Around 28 percent are convinced that this crypto would peak between $14,000 and $19,999. Meanwhile, the remaining 25 percent stated that it will trade at $13,999 or lower.

The survey reveals that nearly 75 percent of the participants think that Bitcoin will double in price this year.

Along the same lines, some of the most prominent technical analysts in the crypto community affirm that Bitcoin entered a new bull market last week. The break of the $8,500 resistance level, was seen as a make-or-break point that could have set out the stage for a bull run. According to Mohit Sorout, a partner at Bitazu Capital, a new uptrend is emerging.

However, there are other analysts who disagree with the bullish outlook. Chris Slaughter, the founder and CEO of LVL, for instance, has been studying a fractal since Dec. 27, 2019, that has proven to be correct. This pattern anticipated the recent rally that took Bitcoin above $8,500. Now, Slaughter estimates a downturn in the market that could push BTC to “new lows.”

The wisdom of the crowd is rarely correct, especially in the cryptocurrency market. Under this premise, since 75 percent of the market is bullish, the probabilities for the bearish outlook increase.

The different perspectives about Bitcoin’s future have the overall market sentiment in a “neutral” stage, according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. It remains to be seen whether history will repeat itself and the upcoming halving will trigger an inflow of capital in the market that allows BTC to reach new all-time highs.

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This Single Factor Suggests Bitcoin’s 2020 Rally is Far From Over

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Bitcoin has been holding steady around the $8,700 region after facing an influx of selling pressure that forced it to lose its previously held position within the $8,800 region. Data suggests that this selling pressure was quite massive, despite BTC only seeing slight losses.

Bull’s ability to absorb the majority of this selling pressure may be a sign that points to the possibility that BTC will soon see a continuation of the bullish uptrend it has been caught within throughout the past couple of weeks.

Bitcoin Declines Towards $8,700 as Selling Pressure Ramps Up

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down just over 1% at its current price of $8,700, which marks a slight decline from its daily highs of over $8,800.

Although BTC has only seen a slight downwards movement following its recent period of sideways trading around $8,800, it is important to note that some analysts have claimed that the crypto’s inability to continue extending its upwards momentum is a sign of technical weakness.

Bitcoin has been able to post a slight bounce from its daily lows of $8,600, and it currently appears that bulls and bears remain at an impasse.

One factor surrounding the cryptocurrency’s recent price action that should be carefully considered is the fact that the selling pressure has been incredibly aggressive, despite there not being any type of major price drop.

Cantering Clark, a popular crypto analyst on

Twitter, spoke about this in a recent tweet, noting that it is too early to say that BTC is in a correction, implying that it could soon see further momentum.

“ONE THING THAT’S WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO IS HOW AGGRESSIVE THESE LOWS WERE SOLD, YET THE LOW NEVER GAVE WAY. BULLISH CONTINUATION IS NEVER CLEAN. I WOULDN’T CALL A CORRECTION JUST YET,” HE EXPLAINED.

Is BTC’s Stability a Bullish Sign? This Analyst Thinks So

Although Clark doesn’t explicitly conclude that Bitcoin’s stability in the face of aggressive selling pressure is bullish, Josh Rager – another prominent cryptocurrency analyst – explained that he believes this reaction is a bullish sign for what’s to come next.“WHEN PRICE HOLDS DURING AGGRESSIVE SELLING… IT’S TYPICALLY A BULLISH SIGN FOR BTC,” HE EXPLAINED WHILE REFERENCING CANTERING CLARK’S ANALYSIS.

If BTC is able to find continued support around $8,600 and buyers continue absorbing the significant selling pressure it is currently facing, the crypto could soon see an extension of the massive upwards momentum it has found over the past two weeks.



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