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Are Bitcoin Futures predicting the future for Bitcoin’s spot prices?

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Bitcoin’s price action is similar to a lot of other bubbles in history. In fact, BTC’s chart and patterns have striking similarities to the DotCom bubble, Qualcomm Charts etc., which could be due to the fractal nature that is witnessed everywhere in nature and in human behavior. However, an interesting correlation between Bitcoin’s spot price and Bitcoin Futures was spotted by the Founder and CEO of NodeSource, Joe McCann.

McCann’s analysis suggested that Bitcoin Futures prices ‘forecasted’ a story for Bitcoin spot prices and later, followed it promptly.

According to Joe McCann, there was a contango spike [Contango, sometimes called forwardation, is a situation where the futures price of a commodity is higher than the anticipated spot price at maturity of the futures contract], at 15:11 UTC between Bitcoin Futures [XBTU19] and the spot price of Bitcoin.

Source: Twitter

The price of Bitcoin Futures [green line] in the above image spiked at 15:11 UTC, whereas the spot price of Bitcoin [black line] at the same time was yet to spike.

Source: Twitter

The spot prices for Bitcoin only reached the peak 2 minutes after the futures spiked, the image for which is attached below.

Source: Twitter

Further, the spot price of Bitcoin as seen on GBTC [Grayscale Bitcoin Trust] was lagging in comparison to the XBTU19 Futures. As of 19:13 UTC, the price of Bitcoin Futures had hit a bottom, which was followed by a spike at 19:26. GBTC hit the bottom at 19:15 UTC, suggesting that there was a lag of 2 minutes, whereas the spike was seen at 19:52 i.e., a lag of 26 minutes.

A Twitter user, @crypto_boy1, commented,

“Great data as always Would be interesting to get historical data on this”

Another Twitter user, @TheCryptoDog, commented,
“Joe when you start monetizing don’t forget about the little guys who supported you on the way up.”
Source :ambcrypto
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Bitcoin

ErisX goes all hands on deck to launch a Bitcoin Futures market

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ErisX’s CSO, Matt Trudeau, detailed the company’s four important plans for the future, which includes launching a spot market, to secure a Bit License, DCO, and to launch a futures market.

ErisX currently has a DCM contract, which is a Derivative Contract Market that allows ErisX to run a CFTC-regulated futures exchange. However, ErisX aims to get a DCO [Derivatives Organization], which will effectively allow it to run a CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. A clearinghouse would mean that ErisX can take control of the custody of the assets and clear and settled trades.

The CSO explained the benefit of this, stating,

“There is some efficiency for firms like producers [like mining companies]; if they need to hedge their inventory or need liquidity on a spot market, they could do that conveniently on a single platform. “

Trudeau added that from the “post-trade standpoint” and “the collateral management standpoint,” ErisX would have cash, crypto, and the futures, all stored in their clearinghouse. This would boost efficiency since it would be available for all customers under a single platform. The CSO added,

“… so there is some efficiency in terms of managing collateral, if you don’t have assets on  multiple platforms, it can all be in our clearinghouse.”

Apart from the aforementioned plans, Trudeau added that the crypto-industry needs to mature more and that ErisX plans to make a significant contribution to that. He added,

“The market is professionalizing and we think that in terms of what institutions are expecting from a trading/custody experience, we will bring some of the solutions to the market and that’s really the foundational pieces that they are looking in order to build their businesses on top of us.”

Apart from ErisX, LedgerX has also received a go-sign from the CFTC to settle Bitcoin Futures in Bitcoins. Other exchanges include Intercontinental Exchange’s Bakkt and Seed CX.

Source :ambcrypto

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Bitcoin’s fantastic run contributes to a new milestone for BitMEX

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The cryptocurrency market has been rife with news about Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, and its massive bullish movement. In a matter of just 3 months, Bitcoin has recovered from the bearish zone near the $4000 market, to currently trade near the $12,000 zone.

This price rise has prompted popular figures in the cryptocurrency industry to voice their opinions about the king coin and where it could go from its current market situation. Alex Kruger, a popular economist and analyst, is one of them and he tweeted,

“The hourly bar that marked tonight’s bitcoin $12,972 top had the highest hourly volume in Bitmex’s history. When such high volume prints come after an extended run, they often mark a local top. One could appreciate an intra-day blow-off top on the 5 minute as well.”

Kruger’s tweet comes in the wake of information that suggests that Bitcoin’s trading volume on the popular cryptocurrency exchange had skyrocketed over the course of the past few months. It was spotted in January of this year, when the trading volume found it difficult to breach the $1 billion mark. However, the present price hike has contributed to the volume spiking by a factor of 9 to amass a trading volume of more than $9 billion.

Kruger’s tweet also had comments from other Bitcoin enthusiasts, with @rufus666, saying,

“Gonna wait for Friday when these CME shorters gonna dump the corns they had to buy on spot after weekend rallies to hedge their positions.”

BitMEX had touched another milestone recently after the exchange clocked in a trading volume of a whopping $10 billion. This feat was also marked with requests from the community, asking BitMEX to include margin trading to its fold like the Changpeng Zhao-led Binance.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $12,595, on the back of a significant 11.19 percent growth over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency held a market cap of $223.96 billion, and a 24 hour trading volume of 32.23 billion.

Source :ambcrypto

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Bitcoin’s on-chain/off-chain valuation indicators the key point of focus as coin heads to $13,000

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With the rise in Bitcoin’s price, the rest of the cryptocurrency market has followed suit by displaying a green trend across the board. In a recent series of tweets by popular cryptocurrency analyst Adam Tache, users were informed about the top Bitcoin on-chain and off-chain valuation indicators, derived from on-chain valuation models.

The analysis touched on the Mayer Multiple created by dividing the price by the all-important – 200 day moving average. The current average Mayer Multiple stands at a figure of 1.39, which may climb higher. Looking at previous figures, the normal Mayer Multiple figures stated that if the value shoots up to 2.4, then Bitcoin eventually retraces back to a comfortable 1.5. The Mayer Multiple is usually considered as the original indicator used to clock the valuation of Bitcoin.

Another major indicator discussed in the thread was the NVT Ratio invented by Willy Woo, Partner at Adaptive Fund. The indicator is used to calculate Bitcoin’s prominence or value in the cryptocurrency space by evaluating the amount transacted on the blockchain as a “proxy for investment flow and bear and bull market cycles.”

At the moment, the NVT ratio for Bitcoin is in an abnormal region compared to the start of previous bullish patterns. The NVT ratio was above the “bear market” separator, which meant that the cryptocurrency was overbought. When Bitcoin is overbought, it usually means that the buying pressure is much higher than the selling pressure. Adam Tache opined,

“NVT signaling overbought is likely due to a number of factors — namely the proliferation of exchange-based, purely off-chain txs driving short-term price action.”

The analysis also pointed out the liveliness of the Bitcoin indicator created by Tamas Blummer. The indicator showed the inverse count of lost or ‘HODLed’ Bitcoin, while stating that when the ratio increases, long-terms holders of the cryptocurrency decrease their positions. The indicator conveyed accumulation of Bitcoin when the ratio decreased.

Source :ambcrypto

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