Most people are keenly aware of Bitcoin’s potential, but until that potential is closer to being realized, nearly all of its value is derived from the masses speculating over its future value and use as a global currency. But it’s difficult to perfectly predict the future, and uncertainty around regulation, and future competition from the likes of Facebook and even other altcoins puts Bitcoin’s future as the sole crypto to rule them all in jeopardy.
One particular trader and investor, with over “25+” years of trading experience across forex and crypto markets, says that as Bitcoin completes its first-ever full 16-year market cycle, the leading crypto asset by market cap will have reached a value of $150K per BTC, have a $3 trillion dollar market cap, will have experienced a major, coordinated attack, and suffer a grueling six-year-long bear market before the next phase in the asset’s lifecycle begins and Bitcoin reaches its true potential.
Crypto Analyst Predicts Full 16-Year Market Cycle for Bitcoin, $150K BTC
All financial markets cycle, in different timeframes. The crypto market just went through a hype-driven peak, followed by a year-long drawdown and bear market. That cycle is now starting to display the beginning signs that the cycle is restarting.
But this was just one minor cycle, and in financial markets, there are commonly many other cycles to be considered. Oftentimes, markets cycle alongside United States presidencies, and others are simply tied to time.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Price Monthly Moving Average Growth Hints At Where Crypto Market Cycle Is At
As Bitcoin is nearly more than two thirds of the way through of its first ever full sixteen year market cycle, and with a new macro cycle beginning, career trader with over 25 years experience in forex and crypto markets, has attempted to predict some of the major milestones and challenges the cryptocurrency will face along the way, as it gets closer to fully reaching its potential as a digital replacement for money.
The analyst says that “once we see Bitcoin” above $150K per BTC, with a $3 trillion market cap and “broad institutional participation, ETF’s, retirement money,” and a “working layer 2 payments capability” Bitcoin will finally become a target worth attacking.
He expects “heavy and coordinated regulation and/or outlawing of Bitcoin,” coinciding with the top of the next Bitcoin bull run in “circa 2021,” and it’ll lead to a six-year long bear market. And crypto investors thought the 2018/2019 bear market was long and painful.
Loukas does entertain the fact that he’s “not Nostradamus,” and could be “full of shit,” but in a market driven by speculation, so too are other crypto investors taking a position in the asset class – we’re all hoping our prediction for future valuation and use case comes true.
Related Reading | Majority of Crypto Investors Never Experienced Bear to Bull Transition
If it does, it won’t be without many painful challenges along the way. But Bitcoin was designed to be resilient and thus far has survived a decade of naysaying, all while its value or underlying technology isn’t fully understood by the public – stopping it at this point will be nearly impossible.
Roubini on BitMex: “95 percent of all bitcoin transactions are fake”
Anti-crypto personality Nouriel Roubini has lashed out at BitMex exchange following the recent announcement that the exchange had achieved US$1 Billion open interest on the Bitcoin perpetual swap contract, for the first time.
Roubini, who always has a lot of negative things to say about the cryptocurrency industry, took to Twitter to express his discontent about the recent record set by BitMex.
BitMex announced that the exchange had achieved US$1 Billion open interest on the Bitcoin perpetual swap contract, for the first time. Roubini commented saying “How can one believe ANY of these figures when 95 percent of all bitcoin transactions on a typical exchange are fake? Fake-coins, shit-coins, fake-transactions, fake-pricing. The only true thing in crypto space is manipulation, pump n dump, front-running, wash trading, etc…”
The two will be meeting in Taipei on July 3 at the Asia Blockchain Summit 2019, where they will have an open debate.View image on Twitter
ErisX goes all hands on deck to launch a Bitcoin Futures market
ErisX’s CSO, Matt Trudeau, detailed the company’s four important plans for the future, which includes launching a spot market, to secure a Bit License, DCO, and to launch a futures market.
ErisX currently has a DCM contract, which is a Derivative Contract Market that allows ErisX to run a CFTC-regulated futures exchange. However, ErisX aims to get a DCO [Derivatives Organization], which will effectively allow it to run a CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. A clearinghouse would mean that ErisX can take control of the custody of the assets and clear and settled trades.
The CSO explained the benefit of this, stating,
“There is some efficiency for firms like producers [like mining companies]; if they need to hedge their inventory or need liquidity on a spot market, they could do that conveniently on a single platform. “
Trudeau added that from the “post-trade standpoint” and “the collateral management standpoint,” ErisX would have cash, crypto, and the futures, all stored in their clearinghouse. This would boost efficiency since it would be available for all customers under a single platform. The CSO added,
“… so there is some efficiency in terms of managing collateral, if you don’t have assets on multiple platforms, it can all be in our clearinghouse.”
Apart from the aforementioned plans, Trudeau added that the crypto-industry needs to mature more and that ErisX plans to make a significant contribution to that. He added,
“The market is professionalizing and we think that in terms of what institutions are expecting from a trading/custody experience, we will bring some of the solutions to the market and that’s really the foundational pieces that they are looking in order to build their businesses on top of us.”
Apart from ErisX, LedgerX has also received a go-sign from the CFTC to settle Bitcoin Futures in Bitcoins. Other exchanges include Intercontinental Exchange’s Bakkt and Seed CX.
Bitcoin’s fantastic run contributes to a new milestone for BitMEX
The cryptocurrency market has been rife with news about Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, and its massive bullish movement. In a matter of just 3 months, Bitcoin has recovered from the bearish zone near the $4000 market, to currently trade near the $12,000 zone.
This price rise has prompted popular figures in the cryptocurrency industry to voice their opinions about the king coin and where it could go from its current market situation. Alex Kruger, a popular economist and analyst, is one of them and he tweeted,
“The hourly bar that marked tonight’s bitcoin $12,972 top had the highest hourly volume in Bitmex’s history. When such high volume prints come after an extended run, they often mark a local top. One could appreciate an intra-day blow-off top on the 5 minute as well.”
Kruger’s tweet comes in the wake of information that suggests that Bitcoin’s trading volume on the popular cryptocurrency exchange had skyrocketed over the course of the past few months. It was spotted in January of this year, when the trading volume found it difficult to breach the $1 billion mark. However, the present price hike has contributed to the volume spiking by a factor of 9 to amass a trading volume of more than $9 billion.
Kruger’s tweet also had comments from other Bitcoin enthusiasts, with @rufus666, saying,
“Gonna wait for Friday when these CME shorters gonna dump the corns they had to buy on spot after weekend rallies to hedge their positions.”
BitMEX had touched another milestone recently after the exchange clocked in a trading volume of a whopping $10 billion. This feat was also marked with requests from the community, asking BitMEX to include margin trading to its fold like the Changpeng Zhao-led Binance.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $12,595, on the back of a significant 11.19 percent growth over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency held a market cap of $223.96 billion, and a 24 hour trading volume of 32.23 billion.