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Bitcoin’s long-term sentiment bullish, despite present market scenario screaming bearish struggles



If a newbie without any prior information about Bitcoin enters the cryptospace right now, he would probably take one step back, turn and sprint away from the community.

While Bitcoin has been recording a fairly successful 2019, the mood has dampened over the past few weeks. Since peaking on June 26th, Bitcoin’s price movement has been anything, but convincing.

At press time, the price had consolidated above the coin’s psychological resistance of $10,000, with the price bouncing off it a couple of times. With cryptocurrency trading volume falling, multiple government officials criticizing the industry and users “panic selling,” it is a nervous time to be a Bitcoin holder.

However, the cryptocurrency’s long-term scenario may be something completely different.

Source: Twitter

According to a report by The TIE, despite the present bearish scenario, Bitcoin’s long-term traits remain extremely positive. The report also suggested that Bitcoin’s long-term sentiment, which had bottomed around the end of the crypto-winter in December 2018, has been on the rise since.

Bitcoin’s 200-day Moving Average line also exhibited a positive trend in the market and projected a bullish trend.

Source: bitconity

Over the last few days, the market was highly concerned about a fall in trade volume which caused the collective market to lose over $70 billion in market cap. Bitcoin also projected a reduced trade volume which was initially responsible for triggering the panic sell on exchanges such as Binance.

However, it can be observed from statistics on bitconity, that the coin’s trade volume rose gradually over the last 48 hours, with more Bitcoins in circulation over major exchanges.

While the first half of 2019 was bullish for the cryptocurrency market, the current scenario screams of a bearish run. If the aforementioned facts are to be believed, the long road for Bitcoin will be a bed of roses. However, if there’s anything the cryptocurrency market has taught us, it is this: Bitcoin almost never takes the predicted path.



Weekly Market Summary: Records Are Breaking As Bitcoin Stuck Above $7000



December 2019 is already here, and it came in kicking. November’s volatility doesn’t seem to end, as, in the past seven days alone, Bitcoin went through a couple of significant swings. The world’s largest cryptocurrency reached a high of around $7,800 in the past week, only to decrease to as low as $7,150 and recover a few days later to where it’s currently trading at around $7,460.

On another note, Bitcoin’s network has demonstrated its enhanced capabilities as it processed over $8.9 billion in a single hour, setting a brand new record. Not only has the cryptocurrency increased in value over the past few years, but its network is also maturing, highlighting some of its essential benefits. Adoption also continues, even at slow rates, as Tokyo-based Softbank announced its new debit card, which will support cryptocurrencies as well.

Hourly On-Chain Transactions
Hourly On-Chain Transactions. Source: Glassnode Market Data

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance continues to struggle between 66% and 67%, meaning that altcoins are still able to hold their grounds. Some of them made impressive strides, including MATIC, which noted 160% bi-weekly gains, starting its very own private altcoin season.

Enjin Coin also gained upwards of 60% following an announcement that they have partnered up with Microsoft. Other large-cap cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, and so forth, remained range-bound for the most of the week.

On another note, some of this week’s news showcase that the market is still very young and has a lot of room for improvement. For instance, wash trading continues to be a problem, as CoinMarketCap showed that 93% of all of the circulating supply of Litecoin changed hands in a single day. Moreover, cryptocurrency hedge funds are also closing down this year, suggesting that the market is still driven mostly by retail investors.

As we dive deeper in December, it remains interesting to see whether bulls will take over and trigger the much-awaited Christmas rally or if bears push the market lower. In any case, we are in for one exciting December.

Market Data

Market Cap: $203B

24H Vol: $57B

BTC Dominance: 66.9%

BTC: $7,522 (2.15%)

ETH: $149,53 (1.12%)

XRP: $0,225 (3.46%)

Market Update

Tokyo-Based Softbank to Offer Cryptocurrency Debit Cards To Its Clients. One of the more popular banks in Japan, Softbank, has announced that they will introduce a new type of debit card equipped with IoT chips, which could be used as a cryptocurrency wallet as well. Clients will be able to operate with both fiat currencies and digital assets.

Who Wants Bitcoin For $680? A Sudden Flash Crash On Binance USDS Market Sank BTC Price. Bitcoin went through a sudden flash crash on the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, against the USDS stablecoin. The price dropped to as low as $680 only to recover moments later, benefiting those who had set low buying orders in the process.

Report: Number of Cryptocurrency Funds Decreases As Retail Investors Drive The Market. According to a recent report, more than 70 cryptocurrency funds have closed this year alone. The majority of them served wealthy individuals and family offices. The number of newly-launched cryptocurrency funds has also decreased in 2019. This outlines that the market, in its majority, is still driven by retail investors.

John McAfee Kicks Off 2020 Presidential Campaign: Vows To Disrupt This System. The legendary entrepreneur and well-known cryptocurrency proponent, John McAfee, has announced that his 2020 Presidential campaign has officially begun. While he outlined that he can’t become a president, he has also shared that he can disrupt the existing system and that he fully intends to do so.

Wash Trading Menace: 93% Of All LTC Traded In A Day According to CoinMarketCap. Prominent analysts have pointed out that the issue with displaying wash trading information on the popular monitoring resource CoinMarketCap continues. According to the website, 93% of all Litecoin in circulation changed hands in a day, which is peculiar.

Bitcoin Breaks Records: $8.9 Billion Processed In An Hour. Bitcoin’s network continues to prove that it’s capable of handling large transactional volumes as it has processed a whopping $8.9 billion in a single hour. This is a new record in terms of hourly USD transaction volume and also represents a huge increase compared to previous years.

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Bitcoin Price Showing Hidden Signs of Reversing — Next Target $8.2K



This week Bitcoin (BTC) continued to trade within a tightly defined range and at the time of writing the price is flat. The bulls and bears have been throwing the market back and forth with moments of high volatility on the lower timeframes, all of which are often a sign of a larger move simmering beneath the surface.

The wider market remains in a similar position, although some altcoins like XRP have slightly outperformed Bitcoin over the past 24 hours. 

Cryptocurrency market daily view. Source: Coin360

Cryptocurrency market daily view. Source: Coin360

Watch the weekly chart

BTC USD Weekly chart. Source: TradingView

BTC USD Weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Analyzing the weekly chart shows that Bitcoin has fundamentally been locked in a bearish posture for close to six months and this is defined by the downward sloping diagonal resistance. 

Major resistance was found at $11,500 and the $9,500 and $7,500 support eventually turned into resistance. Support has now been found at $6,500 which was a critical bullish rejection level in the first half of the year and is demonstrative of a high volume node on the VPVR.

Bitcoin is currently trading up against previous support which has flipped to resistance and the Doji candlestick is a clear sign of indecision in the market as traders are pushing price within a clear range and coming back to the center. 

This shows that the bulls and bears are struggling to find a direction. Bitcoin price can either reverse course or find continuation of the previous candle but ultimately, the current price action defines the week to date quite nicely.

Moving averages provide useful insight 

The 50 and 100-week moving average (WMA) are in the process of crossing bullish which has only occurred a few times in Bitcoin’s history and has signaled an impending upside move. It is important to note that moving averages do not drive a market, they lag the market but can help to identify macro changes in the market’s direction. 

The 200-WMA is situated in the $5,000 range where there is also some historic volume interest at this price range. Many analysts are calling for a retest of the 200-WMA which would likely be a last line of defense for bulls. This would also be unprecedented at this stage in the Bitcoin market cycle. 

Generally, volume on spot exchanges has been decreasing through the circa six-month decline which is typically a sign of sellers becoming exhausted as each push lower entices fewer participants to sell. 

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has crossed the zero line to the bearish side, meaning that the underlying moving averages are now crossed bearishly. However, there is a higher low forming on the histogram which is an unconfirmed bullish divergence.

Thus, on a macro level, it seems as though the market is either at a turning point or it is looking to prepare for continuation; unlike previous weeks, it is a less clear picture.

Daily chart

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The daily chart clearly shows the downward trending channel in which Bitcoin has spent months trading, defined by lower highs and lower lows. The lower 25% of the channel has acted as support and resistance throughout the downtrend and is once again being tested. 

The outcome is normally an explosive move up or a retest of the bottom of the channel. The 50% retracement of the channel is currently at $8,200 and would represent a reasonable breakout target. A retest of the channel could possibly occur at $6,500. 

The MACD histogram shows that there is bullish divergence forming and the MACD line itself has crossed bullish and plotted a higher low which is also a sign of bullish divergence.

The on-balance volume indicator (OBV), a tool that is demonstrative of the directional strength of cumulative volume, also shows a bullish divergence which is concurrent with the decreasing volume on the weekly chart. The OBV is however still trending down and a break out may imply a turn in the market. 

Overall, the daily chart shows a reasonable case for the bulls but is strongly defined by the downtrend which must be respected.

4-hour chart

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that Bitcoin is trading within a horizontal range between $7,900 and $6,500 and the digital asset has found support at the equilibrium of the two local extremities. At present, the 50% Fibonacci retracement ($7,200) is acting as support. 

This is a positive sign for the bulls who hope to retest the upper $7,000s. However, failure to hold above $7,000 will almost inevitably lead to a retest of $6,500 which is in line with the downward channel on the daily chart. At present, the price action is leaning bullish but only marginally.

If the bulls can reach out and close in the upper $7,000s, Bitcoin price will complete an Adam and Eve pattern, which would imply that a move well into the $8,000s and as high at $9,000 would be possible. This would be quite significant and does make sense as it would mean Bitcoin reclaimed the previous weekly trading range, but at this stage is just pure conjecture rather than a direct prediction of an imminent move. 

On the 4-hour timeframe, the MACD is reaching out towards the zero line, painting a higher high on the histogram, both of which are supporting the bullish case in the market. Trading volume is also declining within the range which implies that the market is winding up to make a definitive move.

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Looking forward

In summary, the market remains in a downtrend so any bullish signs must be taken somewhat lightly. However, it is clear across all timeframes that Bitcoin’s price action is attempting to flip to the bullish side. 

There are signs in the trading volume and the momentum in which the decline has somewhat subsided. The likely outcome is that there will be more volatility within this current consolidation before Bitcoin makes more of a definitive move to retest previous critical weekly support and resistance levels.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the (@filbfilb) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Turn Of Events: General Manager of BIS Urges Central Banks To Embrace Digital Money



The General Manager of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), Agustin Carstens, has urged for central banks to embrace digital money. He added that the financial world is going through a revolution at the moment, and banks, being trustworthy establishments, should be in control.

The Digital Money Revolution

The head of BIS, Agustin Carstens, appears to be taking a new stand regarding digital money: He said in a recent speech that central banks need to take control over digital assets so that they can establish specific standards.

Agustin Carstens, photo by Bank of Mexico

In his words, central banks deliver the needed basis for trust in the system because they can ensure security and liquidity. Besides, the responsibility falls on them to remain at the center of global payment systems; otherwise, they will fall back, and “events will overtake us.”

Despite the above, he believes that there’s a brighter future if banks work together with the private sector for better technological innovations:

“Central bank public goods improve the functioning of the monetary system. They do this by
giving the private sector greater scope to innovate, for everyone’s benefit. Central banks amplify the efforts of private-sector innovators, by giving them a solid base to build on.

This is where central banks need to focus their efforts. Today’s technological advances can certainly help to build a more efficient and more inclusive financial system, and central banks need to embrace that innovation. At the same time, their traditional functions are tailor-made for the many innovations on the horizon, including central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).”

Pro Digital Money, But Against Bitcoin

Agustin Carstens’s views against Bitcoin and its purpose are well-known within the crypto community. In his latest speech, he is still unfavorable towards the most significant cryptocurrencies and other projects from big tech companies, such as Facebook’s Libra:

“A gleaming skyscraper is an awesome sight. But when we admire one, we often overlook its foundations. These are out of sight, below ground level. But just because they are not visible, it does not mean that they don’t matter. On the contrary, they matter a lot.”

Additionally, he was even harsher in another interview from last year. While he was answering a few questions regarding cryptocurrencies, saying that “they are not money […], they cannot assume the functions of money for the simple reason of how they are created.”

Moreover, Carstens expressed further negative feelings towards their usage, and his message to young people was – “Stop trying to create money.”

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