Currently down 33% from its yearly high, Bitcoin still has some room left to fall. With momentum approaching oversold conditions, we today look at our 2016 comparison from last week to see if the similarities are still in play. This is the BTC analysis for 17 July 2019
– We look at 2016 comparison again
– Daily RSI approaching oversold conditions
– $10,000 resistance
– $8,400 main target
Starting with the 2016 price action chart to get a quick overview of RSI, we can see that after every heavy uptrend, momentum reached oversold condition by falling below 40.
BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview
Moving back to today’s price action, we can see that BTC has had its heavy uptrend, which means we now have to wait for oversold conditions before we can expect new yearly highs. RSI is still making lower lows and lower highs, which tells us that BTC can still all further.
Currently RSI is pointing up on the daily, which could indicate that we will see an increase in price today, perhaps to test the nearest resistance, which looks to be like $10,000.
If we instead see momentum keep falling today, we would then see a break of $9200 support and possibly see
A dip in price to $8400 would surely bring the RSI down below 40 and perhaps even below 30, which will be the signal that BTC is oversold and that it is ready to move back up to make new yearly highs.
BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview
Lastly, taking a look at the 15min chart for a better overview of today’s price action, we can see that the dip of this past week has not had proper divergence. This means that we should still expect another dip is on the way, to form a new low on price, but a higher low on RSI. With momentum currently looking like it wants to make a turn back to 30 RSI, could indicate that we will soon see BTC decline in price and make its way towards $8400.
BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview
Do you agree that BTC is close to finding the bottom for this decline and mirroring 2016 RSI structure, or will the falling momentum take us further down than we expect this time? Let us know what you think in the comments below!
Disclaimer: Keep in mind this not investment or trading advice, just the opinion of our analysts. As always, do your own research, make your own decisions.
BITCOIN VOLATILITY DWINDLING, HAS BTC TAKEN AN EARLY VACATION?
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are slowing down. There has been very little activity over the past week as volumes and volatility decline. Technical indicators are also lining up which could indicate a larger move is imminent or is BTC on vacation for the rest of the year?
BITCOIN SLOWING DOWN
This may not be such a bad thing. One of the points bitcoin detractors always make is that it is too volatile to be used as a daily currency. This much is true if a cup of coffee is going to be 20% cheaper ten minutes later you’re not going to buy one in BTC right now.
Over the past year or so these massive price swings have decreased in amplitude and it appears that bitcoin has entered a low volatility regime.
Day traders seeking quick bucks have had to take a break as movements are minimal at the
This type of action often preludes a bigger move and technical indicators such as Bollinger bands squeezing are also indicative of such.
This slowing of momentum has happened across the board, not just on bitcoin markets. Ethereum volatility is also at low ebb, falling to levels not experienced since 2016 as noted by Coin Metrics.
It could just be that time of year when traders take a break and FOMO is as thin as the first fall of winter snow. If this is the case then markets will remain flaccid until sometime next month.
Bitcoin News Today – Headlines for December 14
- Investor believes round numbers are very important in BTC markets
- BTC crossing $10k is important says investors and analysts
- Crossing the $10k mark in the near-term will ensure that Bitcoin’s price action is positive.
Bitcoin News Today – Bitcoin investors have always gravitated towards round figures. According to one top crypto investor and commentator, the importance of round numbers can’t be overstated especially in a nascent market. This implies that after reclaiming the $10,000 mark, the macro price scales will ensure that Bitcoin can go higher and higher until it reaches a new round number.
The Importance of Round Number Prices in Crypto
During a recent interview with Luke Martin, Three Arrows Capital Su Zhu said gave his opinion on why round numbers are essential. According to Zhu round numbers are important in the crypto market because the leading crypto topping the $10,000 mark will be an important time in terms of forcing a good price action. It isn’t only Zhu who is of the view that $10,000 is of great importance for Bitcoin and the entire crypto space.
Earlier in the year, Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ resident crypto analyst released his analysis for BTC by his firm. His analysis implies that if the price of BTC reaches and crosses the $10,000 level it could mean
Another platform that agrees with Zhu’s view is Bloomberg. Bloomberg wrote in November of this year about the importance of the $10k barrier and how essential round figures with four and five digits are. The platform said Bitcoin faces a solid resistance point at the $10,000 area. The coin will have to break this barrier if there is to be a confirmation and continuation of meaningful gains.
Is the $10k Mark Attainable for Bitcoin?
Speaking about Bloomberg and BTC getting to the $10,000 mark, one analyst at Bloomberg believes that it’s just a matter of time before the number one crypto tops that key position. The analyst, Mike McGlone, who is the senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg, revealed in his monthly market update that he believes that Bitcoin will top the essential $10,000 resistance point. He said as gold rallies, Bitcoin should rally. While Gold is currently trending below BTC amidst the trade war, the macro picture may begin to favor gold and Bitcoin as we head into 2020.
Stratis Will Increase Rapidly If It Moves Above 4500 Satoshis, Predicts Trader
Stratis has been trading in a range since August 2019. This movement has the characteristics of the consolidation phase, after which a new bullish market cycle is expected to begin.
The trading range of this consolidation has a magnitude of 40%, and the price has tested both the resistance and support areas several times. At the time of writing, it was moving upward towards the resistance area.
Additionally, he suggested that a breakout above the 4500 satoshi resistance area would probably accelerate the rate of increase.
Let’s take a closer look at the price and see how likely this is to happen.
First, the Stratis price reached the long-term support area at 3000 satoshis in August 2019.
This was almost an all-time low, coinciding with the lows reached in 2016, which was the bottom before the 2017 upward move.
Additionally, the RSI reached an all-time low value of 23 during this time and created bullish
This suggests that this is a very suitable level to make a low and initiate a reversal, as we have suggested in our previous article.
Looking closer at the movement, we can see the trading range, consisting of two support and one resistance area.
The main support area is at 3250 satoshis, where the double bottom was created. This is followed by the minor support area at 3850 satoshis. The minor support coincides with the 100-day moving average (MA). The price has flipped it as support. The price fell inside it twice and began an upward move each time.
The resistance area is found at 4500 satoshis and the price has not reached it since November 30.
On December 11, the Stratis price broke out above the descending resistance line that had been in place since the beginning of December.
The breakout transpired with significant volume, increasing the validity of the movement. Afterward, the price returned to validate the descending resistance line, a common movement after breakouts.
To conclude, the Stratis price is likely consolidating before beginning a new market cycle. A decisive breakout above 4500 satoshis is expected, confirming that the new cycle has begun.