Currently down 33% from its yearly high, Bitcoin still has some room left to fall. With momentum approaching oversold conditions, we today look at our 2016 comparison from last week to see if the similarities are still in play. This is the BTC analysis for 17 July 2019
– We look at 2016 comparison again
– Daily RSI approaching oversold conditions
– $10,000 resistance
– $8,400 main target
Starting with the 2016 price action chart to get a quick overview of RSI, we can see that after every heavy uptrend, momentum reached oversold condition by falling below 40.
BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview
Moving back to today’s price action, we can see that BTC has had its heavy uptrend, which means we now have to wait for oversold conditions before we can expect new yearly highs. RSI is still making lower lows and lower highs, which tells us that BTC can still all further.
Currently RSI is pointing up on the daily, which could indicate that we will see an increase in price today, perhaps to test the nearest resistance, which looks to be like $10,000.
If we instead see momentum keep falling today, we would then see a break of $9200 support and possibly see BTC fall further down to our main target area of $8,400 for this larger retracement.
A dip in price to $8400 would surely bring the RSI down below 40 and perhaps even below 30, which will be the signal that BTC is oversold and that it is ready to move back up to make new yearly highs.
BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview
Lastly, taking a look at the 15min chart for a better overview of today’s price action, we can see that the dip of this past week has not had proper divergence. This means that we should still expect another dip is on the way, to form a new low on price, but a higher low on RSI. With momentum currently looking like it wants to make a turn back to 30 RSI, could indicate that we will soon see BTC decline in price and make its way towards $8400.
BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview
Do you agree that BTC is close to finding the bottom for this decline and mirroring 2016 RSI structure, or will the falling momentum take us further down than we expect this time? Let us know what you think in the comments below!
Disclaimer: Keep in mind this not investment or trading advice, just the opinion of our analysts. As always, do your own research, make your own decisions.
Analysts Predict 30% Drop to CME Futures Gap As Bitcoin Falls Below $11,000
Bitcoin News Update – Previously, the key support level of $11,000 has been a strong region of buying pressure for Bitcoin. The top cryptocurrency dipped below $11,000 after a short period of consolidation. At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $10,980, nearly 4% down from its 24-hour highs of over $11,400. The crypto-asset has witnessed a significant drop within 24 hours. Today’s dip clearly marks an extension of the downward movement started by Bitcoin when it plunged from the weekly highs of over $12,000.
Bitcoin News Today – Bitcoin Price Analysis – Bitcoin Price Forecast – Bitcoin Plunges to $10,980
Fortunately, Bitcoin has found strong resistance at $12,000 price level. Each attempt of the coin to decisively break above this level has met violent rejections. Recently, analysts revealed that there is a high probability for a further drop in Bitcoin price in the near future. A popular crypto analyst on Twitter, Mitoshi Kaku, recently tweeted that the next key level of support for Bitcoin is $10,600.
The analyst suggested $10.1 and $10.6 as the two main levels on the macro level. He pointed out that $8.6K is almost guaranteed between 10/28 and 11/11 if the two main levels are lost.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Today – BTC / USD
Analysts forecast a further 30% fall in Bitcoin price. According to Bitcoin Price Prediction, the cryptocurrency is likely to continue the downtrend until it fills its CME futures gap which is now in the low-$8,000 level. Consequently, the embattled investors will experience another 30% plunge before Bitcoin reverses its downtrend and begin to soar.
Bitcoin Latest Update – Bitcoin News Update – Two Gaps on Bitcoin CME Futures Chart
Bitcoin rarely leaves gaps in its CME Futures chart in the past without filling them. Currently, the crypto-asset has two gaps at $11,800 and $8,400. It is likely that Bitcoin will soon touch these levels. Another popular crypto analyst on Twitter, the cryptomist, recently tweeted about the gaps on Bitcoin’s CME Futures chart.
The Cryptomist believes that the top cryptocurrency will fill the current two gaps now. She pointed out that Bitcoin has almost filled the $10,890 gap and is left with more gaps, -11.8K and -8.4K. She explained that both gaps will be filled in the near future. It is likely that the analysts will have a better idea of which of the aforementioned gaps that will be filled first.
Bitcoin News Today – Bitcoin Price Analysis – Bitcoin Price Prediction 2019 – Key Indicators Turn Bearish for Bitcoin
The king of cryptocurrencies recorded 6% loss as it traded at $10,500 on Bitstamp on August 14. This current price erases nearly 53% of the rally from the July 28 low of $9,111 to the August 6 high of $12,325. The devaluation of China’s Yuan on August 5 may have triggered the recent BTC rally. The top cryptocurrency rallied 7% on the same day and rose to $12,325 the next day.
However, the Bitcoin drop witnessed in the last 48 hours also coincided with the recovery of Yuan. China’s Yuan, CNY, has appreciated by 0.26% yesterday and reported a 0.32% gain today against the greenback. Yuan’s recovery has forced investors who bought Bitcoin during the devaluation to cash out.
Bitcoin hourly chart shows a high-volume price breakdown which favors a dip to $10,000. Bitcoin Price Prediction suggests that a minor bounce may precede the drop to $10,000 level. Consequently, the cryptocurrency has retraced over 50% of the $3,000 rally it recorded in the 10 days to August 6. The price drop today has caused Bitcoin to look weaker than it was yesterday.
Bitcoin worth $180 million transferred between wallets in different transactions
The market experienced a surge in the number of transactions occurring between unknown wallets, as Bitcoin maintained its position above the $10,000 mark. The king coin was priced $10,413.87 at press time with a jump of 3.30% over the 24-hour cycle. As the crypto-market joined the bullish ride, the transfer of crypto coins also surged in the market.
Whale Alert, one of the web’s major cryptocurrency transaction trackers, shared the news of the transfer of 7000 BTC between unknown wallets over its official Twitter handle,
“7,000 #BTC [72,418,271 USD] transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet.”
BTC was transferred between the wallet address 14DHxoHYRXL9RudVAGxyzjjcPm9zCCZvXX and wallet address 1LKAwBi5Yb7LzQ5NN1NdRCXbQ8RcJkG1h1 with a timestamp of 10:14:54 UTC, 17 August 2019. The transactions were carried out with 4 confirmations. Additionally, hash for the transaction was c4b7d86168518fff669662ac33ec696751f6a7ecfb7e5d8d4b64f2255408af7d. Transaction was carried out over the Bitcoin blockchain with a transaction fee of 0.00004032 BTC. Additionally, the block height of the transaction was 590505 and it was deemed a successful one.
Previously, 5000 BTC were transferred as reported by Whale Alert,
“5,000 #BTC [51,727,337 USD] transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet.”
It was transferred between the wallet address 1Ehser8uNsySVCQXcnaN4MjWwFWTNasiVX and wallet address 19KFMGRaAQChPzGv2jHa5tuegMgAoq5sG5 with a timestamp of 10:14:54 UTC, 17 August 2019. The transactions were carried out with 10 confirmations.
Yet again, the crypto community’s attention was steered towards another large transaction between unknown wallets, as Whale Alert communicated about the transfer of 6000 BTC,
“6,000 #BTC [62,072,804 USD] transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet.”
The transaction occurred between the wallet address 1PSk8YMLYAYFfSyGjuaH7NvDZydK79ySB2 and wallet address 174dXYQXf5hw7WmwS9pHdWSNXaLfZC4wqN, having a timestamp of 10:14:54 UTC, 17 August 2019.
Bitcoin stays calm above $10,000, struggles to turn bullish
- Markets cheer Bakkt’s introduction of crypto futures on Friday.
- Bitcoin still down more than 10% for the week despite latest recovery.
- $10,000 continues to act as strong support in near-term.
After slumping to its lowest level of August at $9,467 on Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) staged modest recovery and advanced above the critical $10,000 mark. Although Bakkt’s announcement of the launch date of its highly anticipated crypto futures platform allowed the sentiment surrounding major cryptocurrencies turn positive on Friday, Bitcoin’s rally remained short-lived. As of writing, the BTC/USD pair is posting modest daily losses at $10,300. For the week, the pair is still down more than 10% despite this latest rebound.
Bakkt cleared to launch Bitcoin futures
Owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Intercontinental Exchange Inc, said on Friday that it won the approval for its Bakkt unit to introduce futures that will pay out in Bitcoin starting September 23rd. Commenting on this development, “We believe that the availability of a benchmark that can be referenced globally will create confidence in the true price of Bitcoin,” Kelly Loeffler, Bakkt’s chief executive officer, told Bloomberg in an interview. “It’s an important step in creating more trust.”
Looking at the technical picture, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart continues to move below the 50 mark, suggesting that buyers are struggling to take control of the price action. Additionally, both the 20-day Moving Average and the 50-day Moving Average stay above the price, confirming the near-term bearish outlook.
On the downside, $10,000 (psychological level/Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of June rally) remains as tough support. With a weekly close below that level, the sell-off could drag Bitcoin to $9,500 (Aug. 15 low) and $9,000 (psychological level/Jul. 17 low/Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of June rally).
On the other hand, a strong dynamic resistance seems to have formed at $10,800 (20-DMA/50-DMA/Fibonacci 50% retracement of June rally) ahead of $11,500 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of June rally).