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Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast and analysis on July 17, 2019

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Cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH/USD) is trading at 229. Cryptocurrency quotes are trading below the moving average with a period of 55. This indicates the presence of a bearish trend on Ethereum. At the moment, cryptocurrency quotes are moving near the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator bands.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast and analysis on July 17, 2019

As part of the Ethereum course forecast, a test of level 245 is expected. Where should we expect an attempt to continue the fall of ETH/USD and further development of the downward trend. The purpose of this movement is the area near the level of 182. The conservative area for sales of Ethereum is located near the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator at the level of 290.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast and analysis on July 17, 2019

Cancellation of the

option to continue the decline in the rate of Ethereum will be the breakdown of the area of ​​the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. As well as a moving average with a period of 55 and closing of quotations of the pair above the area of ​​300. This will indicate a change in the current trend in favor of the bullish for ETH/USD. In case of a breakdown of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator bands, one should expect an acceleration of the fall of the cryptocurrency.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast and analysis on July 17, 2019implies a test level of 245. Further, it is expected to continue falling to the area below the level of 182. The conservative area for selling Ethereum is located area of 290. Canceling the option of falling cryptocurrency will be a breakdown of the level of 300. In this case, we can expect continuation growth.

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Ethereum

Ethereum Price Analysis: Coming Down

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  • Ethereum has a bearish short-term and medium-term trading outlook
  • The four-hour time frame shows that an inverted head and shoulders pattern has been invalidated
  • The daily time frame continues to show a bearish pattern playing out to the downside

Ethereum is coming under increasing technical selling pressure below the $150.00 level, as the second largest cryptocurrency continues to be dragged lower by the market downtrend.

The ETH/USD pair remains vulnerable to further declines over the short-term, with technical analysis suggesting that sellers may soon attempt to break the November swing-low.

The four-hour time frame shows that a large inverted head and shoulders pattern has been invalidated, with the overall downside target of the bearish invalidation located around the $100.00 level.

A break under the $135.00 support should heighten technical selling in the ETH/USD pair, placing the psychological $100.00 level firmly in focus.

Furthermore, a bearish triangle pattern breakout is also in play across the lower time. Bitcoin is also suffering from a similar fate, after breaking under a triangle pattern on the lower time frames.

The daily time frame is equally as bearish and continues to depict a

series of large head and shoulders pattern playing out to the downside, with $125.00 as the target of the first bearish pattern.

At current trading levels, buyers would need to move the price above $178.00 to change the short-term negative outlook. A move above the $220.00 level is needed to change the medium-term negative bias.

The Relative Strength Index has yet to reach oversold levels over the medium-term and continues to issue a strong sell signal on both the daily and weekly time frame.

ETH H4 Chart December 12 by TradingView
ETH/USD H4 Chart by TradingView

Upside Potential

The four-hour time frame shows that key technical resistance is now located at the $150.00 and $160.00 levels.

Key technical resistance over the medium-term is located at the $178.00 and $198.00 levels.

ETH Daily Chart December 12 by TradingView
ETH/USD Daily Chart by TradingView

Downside Potential

The four-hour time frame is showing that the ETH/USD pair has strong medium-term technical support around the $135.00 and $125.00 levels.

Critical long-term technical support for Ethereum is located at the $100.00 support level.

Summary

Technical analysis suggests that the ETH/USD pair could see further double-digit declines if the $135.00 level is broken.

Both the four-hour and daily time frames are showing that the $100.00 level remains a possible bearish target.

Check out our introductory guide to Ethereum.

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VITALIK BUTERIN: ETHEREUM FOUNDATION MADE $100 MILLION BY SELLING ETH AT ATH

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According to a recent statement by Vitalik Buterin, he managed to convince the Ethereum Foundation to sell 70,000 ETH at the height of 2017’s parabolic run, resulting in a $100 million liquidity.


ETH is still the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. However, its price today is nowhere near what it used to be two years ago. Volatility has taken a hit and a break out seems all the less likely.

ETHEREUM FOUNDATION SOLD 70,000 ETH

But the Ethereum Foundation has had the financials already sorted. It so happens that co-founder Vitalik Buterin managed to convince the EF to sell up to 70,000 ETH when the coin peaked in late 2017 and early 2018.

This resulted in instant liquidity of around $100 million, assuming that they sold at the absolute peak when the price was flirting with the $1,400 mark. Buterin revealed this information in a recent conversation with Eric Weinstein, a well-known podcaster who is also Thiel Capital’s managing director. Buterin leveraged the ETH rally to make some serious money for himself too. He sold an estimated 30,000 ETH, which was worth approximately $22 million at that time.

This move made many question EF’s motives. Quite a lot in the community thought they did so as they spent all of their fiat reserves. According to Buterin’s reveal, this should not have happened so far.

In other words, the reason for this was likely a policy decision, rather than a lack of funds.

CRYPTO WAS NOT READY TO BE AS VALUABLE AS IT WAS

When asked what he thought about

the prices going down, the Ethereum leader admitted that he was relieved when it happened. According to him, the crypto industry has yet to create enough value to actually be worth half a trillion dollars.

Buterin noted that he never shorted, but he did convince the EF to sell quite a bit of ETH. As mentioned earlier, he did it as well, although he did not say that in the interview. However, this is not really surprising, as many other prominent crypto figures did the same. One of the best examples of this was Litecoin’s Charlie Lee, who was criticized for the move, as many believed that he might be dumping the coins due to some knowledge that was unavailable to the wider community.

Lee commented on his decision, stating that it would be a conflict of interest for him to hold LTC and tweet about it. He has a lot of influence in the crypto industry, and any attempt to praise the project might have been taken as an attempt to increase his personal wealth. With no LTC in his wallets, he became free to speak about the project’s value freely, without having to face such accusations.

As for Ethereum itself, the coin’s price is currently far below its $1400 peak, sitting at $144.09 at the time of writing. However, Ethereum is still the leading development platform, with new dApps, smart contracts, altcoins, and other products being created on it almost every day. Its market cap currently sits at $15.6 billion, while at $7.35 billion, ETH’s trading volume is about half of that figure.

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Ethereum will conduct Muir Glacier hard fork

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  • During yesterday’s Core Devs Meeting, the Muir Glacier hard fork was finalized.
  • The activation of the hard fork will take place at block number 9.069.00, presumably on 04 January 2020.

The core developers of Ethereum confirmed the Muir Glacier hard fork yesterday and thus the delay of the Difficulty Bomb by 4 million blocks. At the Ethereum Core Devs Meeting #77, which took place yesterday, the participants stated that there is a common consensus in the Ethereum community about the activation of EIP 2387. This will delay the Ethereums “Iceage” by 4 million blocks, equivalent to about 1.7 years.

The biggest concern in the community was the long delay of 1.7 years, as this could lose an incentive to complete Ethereum 2.0 quickly. Eric Conner, developer of Gnosis, refuted this argument and explained in the Ethereum Magicians chat:

I REALLY DON’T KNOW WHY PEOPLE KEEP ASSOCIATING THIS WITH ETH2 DEVELOPMENT. YES THE ORIGINAL IDEA WAS TO NOT ALLOW STAGNATION BUT THAT’S AN ANCIENT THOUGHT AT THIS POINT. AS PETER HAS ALREADY POINTED OUT, ETH2 IS NOW MOSTLY ENTIRELY INDEPENDENT OF ETH1. […] WE SHOULD REALLY STOP COMBINING THESE TWO IDEAS. A DELAY IN THE DIFFICULTY BOMB IN NO WAY DELAYS ETH2 DEVELOPMENT.

As Hudson Jameson stated at the Core Devs Meeting, the period could also be shortened later in a hard fork if there is a need. For the activation of EIP 2387, however, this question does not represent an obstacle, so the unanimous opinion, as to why the EIP was finalized.

Another objection was that the incentive for the miners to upgrade could be lost if the Difficulty Bomb is further delayed. Tim Beiko explained in ETH Magicans chat that the completion of Ethereum 2.0 fits very well into Muir Glacier’s schedule and that both should occur at about the same time:

WITH REGARDS TO THE FINALITY GADGET, I DOUBT WE’LL SEE IT LIVE ON MAINNET IN <1 YEAR. THIS WOULD COME

FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ~1.5 YEARS IN WHICH THE BOMB WOULD GO OFF AGAIN. IF A LARGE MAJORITY OF ETHEREUM USERS & INFRASTRUCTURE PROVIDERS CONSIDER THE FINALITY-GADGET CHAIN TO BE THE CORRECT ONE, THEN MINERS HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO FOLLOW THAT CHAIN GIVEN THAT IT WILL BE “ETH” AND HAVE MOST/ALL ACTIVITY/ECONOMIC VALUE TIED TO IT.

The activation of the Muir Glacier hard fork is planned for block number 9.069.00. Due to a difficulty upgrade in a few days, the exact date is not yet exactly predictable. However, as Péter Szilágyi explained during the call, the Muir Glacier hard fork is likely to take place on January 04, 2020.

What is the impact of Ethereum Muir Glacier hard fork?

The Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) for Muir Glacier was published at the end of November with EIP 2384 and later concretized by James Hancock with EIP 2387. The EIP, known as “Muir Glacier”, will further delay the Difficulty Bomb in the Ethereum Network.

The Difficulty Bomb, along with the retargeting algorithm, is responsible for Ethereum achieving a constant block time. The retargeting algorithm ensures that if a block time is greater than 20 seconds, the difficulty level is reduced, and if a block time is less than 10 seconds, the difficulty level is increased. This mechanism leads to an increasing difficulty of ETH to mine, which in turn leads to an increased time expenditure for the extraction of a new block.

This mechanism serves as a deterrent to miners who may choose to continue with the Proof of Work (PoW) even after Ethereum has switched to the Proof of Stake (PoS) with Ethereum 2.0. However, the Difficulty Bomb occurred earlier than expected and became increasingly apparent, with average block times increasing by almost two seconds within a month. In response, Muir Glacier was proposed as an “emergency” hard fork, which is now expected to be activated on January 4th.

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Last Updated on 14 December, 2019



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