TRON announced the latest release of its side chain solution—Sun Network. The upgrade promises “unlimited scaling capacity,” similar to the optimism around Lightning Network for Bitcoin. Yet, the data suggests these bold claims could be more marketing-speak than anything else.
On Aug. 11, TRON announced a new version for the Sun Network, a scaling solution that would expand the network’s transaction capacity. The upgrade incorporates a series of scaling upgrades, such as “DAppChain,” which the TRON Foundation claims will improve the transactions-per-second (TPS) for smart contracts while lowering transaction fees. The upgrade also includes a cross-chain communication feature.
DAppChain would allegedly provide “unlimited scaling capacity” for the TRON MainNet, allowing dApps to run with “lower energy consumption, higher security, and greater efficiency on TRON.” According to TRON and BitTorrent CEO Justin Sun:
“Sun Network will contribute to a more active ecosystem of TRON… In addition, a series of scaling projects such as DAppChain and cross-chain communications will further expand the overall capacity of the TRON network, as well as improving the TPS and smart contract execution efficiency on TRON.”
In addition to the claims around Sun Network, Justin Sun also promotes several selected metrics for TRON:
“TRON’s total account number reached 3,000,000. A total of 410 million secure transactions took place since the MainNet launch.”
Considering how often these metrics are used to promote TRON and the Sun Network it’s important to look at the hard data.
Evaluating TRON based on the numbers
For marketing purposes, Justin Sun and the TRON Foundation have a history of making comparisons to the leading smart contract protocol, Ethereum. Consequently, it’s important to take an objective look at a few important metrics to objectively evaluate these claims.
In terms of total transactions, EOS is by far in the lead—recording 4.5 million daily transactions. This is followed by TRON at 2.8 million. Finally, Ethereum comes in last with just 710,000 transactions.
Looking at this chart alone, an investor may think that TRON and EOS are superior networks because they have larger transactions counts. This, however, isn’t the full picture.
Both TRON and EOS offer free, near-free, and subsidized transactions, especially for end-users. Meanwhile, the median Ethereum transaction fee costs about $0.05. As a result, it’s expected that lower transaction costs translate into a larger number of transactions (though this raises the risk of network resources being abused for low-value purposes).
One metric that is supposedly effective at estimating the value of a payments network (not a smart contract network) is the dollar value of transactions conducted over that network. This is one measure by which Bitcoin advocates compare different payment-focused cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin, Monero, and Zcash.
Using this metric, Ethereum is clearly in the lead. The pioneer smart contract platform recently clocked-in $229 million in 24-hour blockchain-transacted dollar value. For comparison, EOS and TRON had $40 million and $8 million in value transferred over their networks.
To clarify, this metric only counts transactions that move on-chain. On-exchange volume, where coins do not actually move on the blockchain, are intentionally not counted in this metric.
When looking at these values, Ethereum has 28 times the value transferred over its network compared to TRON, even with the much higher transaction costs. This suggests that as a payment network, ETH dwarfs TRX.
The final metric is not total addresses, as Sun would suggest, but daily active addresses, a measure of the number of addresses which sent or received a transaction in the last 24-hours.
Based on this metric, Ethereum has consistently outperformed the other two networks in daily active addresses, reporting 293,000 active addresses most recently. Comparatively, EOS and TRON had 35,000 and 175,000.
This number may be a better gauge for how many individuals are using each network. That said, here it seems the TRON network is fairly active relative to the project’s size and market capitalization. This could potentially be attributed to TRON’s relatively strong dApp ecosystem, with highly popular TRX gambling dApps, like TronBet, potentially pushing up active user counts.
Will the Sun Network make a difference?
In July 2018, Justin Sun boasted that the TRON network is 80 times faster than Ethereum, implying a network speed of 1,200 TPS. In June, TRON claimed to have a TPS of 2,000. These figures would give TRON a network capacity of approximately 100 to 170 million transactions per day.
Meanwhile, at its peak, the TRON network was using conducting less than 6 million transactions in a 24-hour interval—just 6 percent of the network’s maximum capacity. This could mean the additional TPS from the Sun Network may go largely unused, although it could make more resource-intensive applications possible.
Most would also agree that lower fees are better for the adoption of a blockchain network. And, they are, in terms of stimulating usage.
But, the TRON network already charges near-zero fees for most users. Although, there are fees associated with bandwidth usage and other types of computer resources, but projects can also earn credits for these resources for free by locking-up TRX.
This kind of resource allocation is similar to how EOS.IO is set up, where users are not required to pay for transaction fees under a certain threshold. By centralizing computer resource providers to a few dozen super representatives (or block producers in EOS’s case), both of these blockchain protocols are able to achieve higher levels of transaction throughput at the cost of decentralization.
Arguably, one of the best metrics for evaluating the efficacy of an open-source smart contract platform is the number of monthly active developers it can attract and retain, suggests Electric Capital.
Here, both EOS and TRON have tiny developer communities compared to Ethereum. Ethereum has over 1,200 monthly active developers working on its main code repository compared to EOS’s 225 and TRON’s 65.
Overall, it seems that the metrics the TRON Foundation selects and presents, along with its protocol upgrades, are—as expected—more marketing hype than anything else. Ethereum is still clearly in the lead in terms of active development and industry adoption based on observable numbers, as much as Justin Sun would like investors to think otherwise.
Evaluating the metrics
In terms of total transactions, it’s unlikely that Ethereum will outperform more centralized systems like TRON and EOS, which can drive down costs by centralizing computer resources— even with sharding—by nature of how distributed networks are bottlenecked by the number of participating nodes.
Yet, it seems disingenuous to claim TRON is outperforming Ethereum, especially when the metrics appear cherry-picked to push the pro-TRX narrative. Justin Sun himself has even admitted—and apologized for—using “vulgar hype and marketing behavior” and utilizing “marketing gimmicks” in a letter meant for his Chinese audience.
Back to the Sun Network, the upgrade seems unlikely to live up to its hype of “unlimited scaling.” Even if it could bring about unlimited transaction throughput, the metric is largely irrelevant if there aren’t enough users and developers on the network.
Recently, the Tron CEO promised to limit the “overmarketing” of Tron in a now-deleted apology.
Unsurprisingly, Sun is back to relentlessly marketing Tron platform with his latest tweet claiming that his first priority is to get Tron back into the top 10 on CoinMarketCap and BitTorrent into the top 30.
Tron (TRX) Price Analysis: Trend Remains Bearish Below $0.020
- Tron price declined heavily after it settled below the $0.0200 support against the US Dollar.
- TRX price is currently correcting higher after trading to a new monthly low at $0.0159.
- There is a significant bearish trend line forming with resistance near $0.0184 on the 4-hours chart (data feed via Bitfinex).
- The price is likely to remain in a downtrend until it settles above the $0.0184 and $0.0200 resistances.
TRON price is trading in a major downtrend against the US Dollar andbitcoin. TRX price could only start a strong recovery once it breaks $0.0184 and gains strength above $0.0200.
Tron Price Analysis
This past week, TRON price accelerated its decline below the $0.0200 support against the US Dollar. The TRX/USD pair even broke the $0.0185 support level and settled below the 55 simple moving average (4-hours). It opened the doors for more downsides and the price tested the $0.0160 support level. A new monthly low was formed near $0.0159 and the price recently started an upside correction.
There was a break above the $0.0170 resistance plus the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last major decline from the $0.0212 high to $0.0159 low. Additionally, the price managed to pop above the $0.0180 level. However, the upward move was capped by the $0.0184 and $0.0185 resistance levels (the previous supports). The 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last major decline from the $0.0212 high to $0.0159 low is also near $0.0185.
Moreover, there is a significant bearish trend line forming with resistance near $0.0184 on the 4-hours chart. Therefore, tron price is likely to face a strong selling interest near the $0.0184 and $0.0185 levels. The 55 simple moving average (4-hours) is also near the $0.0185 level to act as a hurdle. If there is a break above $0.0185, the price could recover towards the $0.0194 resistance.
The main resistance is near the $0.0200 level, above which the price could gain bullish momentum. Conversely, if the price fails to climb above $0.0185, there could be another bearish wave. An immediate support is near the $0.0172. The next key support is at $0.0165, below which the price might aim $0.0160.
The chart indicates that TRX price is still trading in a major downtrend below $0.0185 and $0.0200. A successful close above $0.0185 might increase the chances of more upsides. However, a clear break above $0.0200 is needed to decrease the current bearish pressure.
4 hours MACD – The MACD for TRX/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone.
4 hours RSI – The RSI for TRX/USD is about to break the 50 level.
Key Support Levels – $0.0185 and $0.0200.
Key Resistance Levels – $0.0172, $0.0165 and $0.0160.
Tron’s latest weekly report highlights new block height, surges in real-time accounts & transaction numbers
The Tron Foundation updated the community about recent developments in its ecosystem through its weekly report. The report highlighted the progress of Tron over the past week. The community was elated by the fact that block height had exceeded 11.86 million, while registering 1,145 nodes in Tron ecosystem.
Further, real-time accounts also grew and stood at 3,483,472, along with the addition of 47,599 new accounts over the network. The total number of transactions reached 5.95 million.
It is important to note that 3 new DApps were added to the existing list of 554 DApps, registering a week-on-week growth of 0.5%. Tron enthusiasts were thrilled with the official launch of SUNNetwork Code V1.0. Further, the report also shared the news about the SUN Network getting integrated with TronLink.
Tron shared the update over Twitter, tweeting,
“#TRON Weekly Report 1. Completed code migration for part of the transaction module. 2. #SUNNetwork code V1.0 officially launched. 3. Total number of TRON real time accounts have surpassed 3.5M. #TRX $TRX”
The report also spoke about the upcoming DAppchain MainNet, a launch which will happen later. Also, the total transaction volume of Tron increased to $529,885,545, recording a growth of $49,053,189 over the past month. The Tron ecosystem cheered after the total circulation flow of TRC20-USDT, Tron’s stablecoin, exceeded $110 million. With DAU of Tron DApps reaching 186,300, Tron also registered a total trading volume of $3.25 billion.
The Tron Foundation is also looking forward to improving and implementing MPC second-stage participant action documentation.
Tron price analysis: The TRX bulls show up once more, will price break up?
In as much as we continue to see a low amount of trading volume in the market, the price of Tron (TRX) will continue to drop.
- Tron (TRX) is currently facing a fierce resistance around the $0.018 level and at the same time testing the channel’s upper boundary.
- While Tron (TRX) remains on a long-term bearish trend, the price is up by 2.39% at the time of writing.
Tron’s price has seen a two days steady rise with current price floating at $0.018, although the TRX market is still correcting south on the daily chart. But recently, the price actions have been trading much around the upper boundary of the two months falling channel (yellow).
More so, the token has managed to near the 2018 low at $0.011 during last week’s trading, but the price sharply rebounded after testing the $0.016 level. However, the second half of the year’s short opening has subjected the market in a bearish trend. Meanwhile, Tron (TRX) was trending decently in a rising channel (white) before it got broken on July 14.
Tron (TRX) ’s Current Statistics
Trading Price: $0.018
Market Capitalization: $1,206,489,036
Trading Volume: $409,088,386
Key Resistance Levels: $0.020, $0.022, $0.024
Key Support Levels: $0.016, $0.014, $0.012
Tron Price Prediction August 19, 2019
Taking a look at the daily chart, Tron (TRX) remains in a downward movement despite recording a 2.39% positive change over the last 24-hours if trading. Following the bearish sentiment, the next level of support lies at the $0.016 and $0.014. A further drop beneath this price levels may bring price at $0.012 support.
Considering an uptrend for the TRX/USD pair, we need to see a nice build-up above the falling channel to bring us to $0.020, $0.022, and $0.024 resistance levels. As it appears now, the buyers seem to be facing fierce resistance at the $0.018 level. As we can see on the price chart, Tron’s volume appeared to be low over the past two weeks.
In as much as we continue to see a low amount of trading volume in the market, the price of Tron (TRX) will continue to drop. However, the price will go up until we begin to see a consistent upward movement along with an increasing volume to give the market strength.
Technical Indicator Reading
The RSI has been falling since June and now lying at the oversold level. Tron (TRX) is likely to go up if the ongoing positive move can continue for the rest of the week.
The Stochastic RSI is slowly climbing back after dropping in the oversold territory. The potential resistance levels may come into play if the indicators keep rising.