- Ethereum momentum has stalled $202.43 following a 3.15% rise on the day.
- Bulls must defend $200 support in order to stage a break above $205 resistance.
Ethereum hovers above $200 following a new week’s price action. The weekend session was particularly bullish for ETH. The bulls managed to escape the bear range between $180 and $190. This price action set the ground for the breakout above $200 on Monday.
At the time of writing, Ethereum bulls have control over the price. However, the momentum has stalled $202.43 following a 3.15% rise on the day. The 50 Simple Moving Average one-hour is expanding the gap above the 100 SMA one-hour as a key indicator that the buyers will win the confrontation with a break above $205 (seller congestion zone).
Technical analysis suggests the buyers have the upper hand. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is moving higher within the positive territory. The positive divergence signals rising buying power.
Moreover, the Relative Strength Index in the same one-hour has entered the overbought region. On one hand, this shows bullish pressure being at the peak. On the other, it could mean an impending reversal due to the overbought conditions. In spite of all these, if buyers manage to keep the price above $200, they will get time to stage another breakout.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart
Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast and analysis on February 22, 2020
Cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH/USD) is trading at 263. Cryptocurrency quotes are trading below the moving average with a period of 55. This indicates a bullish trend on Ethereum. At the moment, cryptocurrency quotes are moving near the middle border of the Bollinger Bands indicator stripes.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast and analysis on February 22, 2020
As part of the Ethereum forecast, a test of level 259 is expected. Where can we expect an attempt to continue the growth of ETH/USD and the further development of an upward trend. The purpose of this movement is the area near the level of 298. The conservative buying area Ethereum is located near the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator strip at 248.
Cancellation of the option to continue the growth of the Ethereum rate will be a breakdown of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator stripes. As well as a moving average with a period of 55 and closing of quotations of the pair below the area of 240. This will indicate a change in the current trend in favor of the bearish for ETH/USD. In case of breakdown of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator bands, we should expect an acceleration in the fall of cryptocurrency.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast and analysis on February 22, 2020 implies a test level of 259. Further growth is expected to continue to the area above level 298. The conservative buying area is located near area 248. The breakdown of the growth option for cryptocurrency will be a breakdown of the level of 240. In this case, we should expect further fall.
Ethereum (ETH) Holds Its Ground But Threats Loom Over
Ethereum (ETH) has been holding its ground firmly above the trend line support but there is still the risk of a decline below the ascending triangle considering we now have a bearish divergence on the RSI as we can see on the 4H chart for ETH/USD. This is not a favorable development and could mean that Ethereum (ETH) might see once last decline down to the 38.2% fib level below $240 before the next move up. That would happen only if we see the trend line support break which has not happened so far but the bulls seem to be losing momentum.
The cryptocurrency market is ready to rally further after the recent correction but we still cannot discount the possibility of a decline down to the 200-moving average in BTC/USD which means that such a decline would drag ETH/USD down to the 38.2% fib level. For the market makers and the whales, the big players that control this market, they have to keep the balance between completing the correction and not spooking the horse. The last thing they want to do is shatter the halving dream just yet. They want the market to rally higher before halving and they are going to ensure that it happens. One thing that is important to note that the manner in which the market crashed recently could definitely happen again which is why it is important to understand the risks and manage them accordingly.
The bearish divergence that we saw on ETH/USD can also be seen on ETH/BTC. Ethereum (ETH) rallied aggressively against Bitcoin (BTC) but it seems to have run out of steam to surge on. If it declines below the trend line support, we could be looking at a sharp decline to the 38.2% fib level. However, it is important to realize that a move like that would seriously hurt the bullish resolve, but it can still happen.
In case ETH/BTC declines down to the 38.2% fib level, we would want to see it find support there and begin an uptrend instead of falling further down to the 61.8%. The market seems to have lost the bullish momentum after the recent crash but we could still see a pump or two and then everyone would try to FOMO into the market once again. So, it is important to be mindful of all eventualities. If ETH/BTC does not fall below the trend line support, then it could shape up to be a major ascending triangle which would then lead to a major breakout in the days and weeks to come.
Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD is subject to an explosive breakout
- Ethereum price is trading in the red by 1.70% in the session on Friday.
- ETH/USD price action is very much consolidating following a double top being hit at $288.
- The bears are trying to regather momentum, running at two sessions in the red.
ETH/USD weekly chart
The price is stuck within a key range, $290-240, heading for a potentially negative weekly close, which if being the case could be a signal of a change in trend.
ETH/USD daily chart
The price is narrowing, buying momentum would likely be seen upon a breakout to the upside of the top at $288, to the downside, bearish momentum would likely be seen upon a breakout of the double top formation neckline at $240-38 region.
Spot rate: 265.83
Relative change: +3.15%