CNBC’s resident crypto bull Brian Kelly says he’s bearish on Bitcoin’s trajectory in the short term.
On a new episode of Fast Money, the CEO of crypto investment firm BKCM reiterates his belief that traders should track the number of active Bitcoin addresses as a leading indicator of where its price may head next. Due to a recent decline in active addresses, which he equates to the number of daily active users on more traditional platforms like Facebook, Kelly says he believes Bitcoin will sink lower in the near future.
If and when that happens, Kelly says the dip will present a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to enter the market.
“I think the price has gotten a little ahead of itself. That said, there’s going to be a chance here – and we saw it back in December and January of this year – for you to buy Bitcoin. And it’s going to be a generational buy at that point. It’s just not here I don’t think. So in the short term, I’m a little bit cautious.”
Kelly also outlines the signs he’s looking for that he thinks will indicate a new BTC rally is on the horizon.
“Number one will be, we see the price going down and those addresses going up. That’s what we saw in December and January. We saw the price continue to crash down and the activity on the network was really increasing. So that’s probably the biggest thing I’ll look for. The second thing is the sentiment, in terms of does everybody think Bitcoin’s dead again? When people start saying that, then I’ll get real bullish.”
As for the reasons Bitcoin’s active addresses are trending down, Kelly says institutional traders may be increasingly turning toward derivatives, such as CME’s Bitcoin futures.
“The reason why it could be different this time is there’s a lot of institutions trading derivatives. So they’re not necessarily getting a spot address like a bank account. So that could be what’s going on here and it’s the first time we’ve seen it. So it could be different.”
Binance Blocking 13 States From New US-Based Crypto Exchange
Binance says 13 states will be blocked from its new crypto exchange Binance.US.
The exchange, which is set to accept initial registrations on Wednesday, will prohibit customers in the following states as it works to ensure its platform is compliant across the US.
- New York
- North Carolina
Binance.US CEO Catherine Cooley says the exchange will keep pressing to ensure the platform is available to all US citizens.
“Although it is upsetting that we cannot offer Binance.US in the states where I grew up and earned my education at this time, please rest assured that this is just the beginning, and it is our mission to bring access to those of you in these states many of us call home…
U.S. customers will be able to buy listed coins with USD through ACH or wire transfer methods. We will be exploring other options based on the demand of our users.”
The platform will debut with six supported cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and Tether.
Users who have coins that are not available for trading on the platform can still store the assets on Binance.US.
“All coins/tokens not yet listed on Binance.US can still be stored with other custodians in the custody method of your choice (ex. hot wallet, cold storage, etc.) and traded on other venues that have live order books in those pairs. Over the coming weeks, we will be adding coins that satisfy our Digital Asset Risk Assessment Framework.”
According to Cooley, the platform plans to steadily add more coins after its initial launch.
Bitcoin, HTC collaborate on cryptocurrency smartphone
Bitcoin.com is going mobile.
The cryptocurrency inventor has announced that it is working with telecommunications manufacturer HTC on developing crypto technologies, starting with its smartphones.
In a press release, Bitcoin.com said it is beginning a long-term partnership with HTC, which has developed a smartphone with a pre-loaded Bitcoin Cash (BCH) support app.
People who buy an EXODUS 1 from HTC won’t have to download a BCH wallet app onto their phones. For people who already have an EXODUS 1, they just have to update the software on their phone, the release said.
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“The EXODUS vision has always aligned itself towards public blockchains and its fundamental transformative nature of the future of money and the Internet,” Phil Chen, Decentralized Chief Officer at HTC said in a statement.
“The Zion Vault is happy to support BCHnatively in hardware for security to go hand in hand with the BCH blockchain as an alternative to dominant payment rails and platforms,” Chen added.
However, the automatically downloaded Bitcoin app isn’t the only way the two companies are partnering.
They also plan to offer special discounts for buying phones using Bitcoin Cash as well as selling EXODUS phones on Bitcoin’s store.
“There are so many synergies between Bitcoin.com and HTC. We are very excited to be on this incredible journey together,” Bitcoin.com’s CEO Stefan Rust said in the release.
Ethereum Uppercuts Bitcoin
Ethereum has been an outperformer this week in the crypto space, after breaking out of a bullish wedge. Week to date, Ethereum (ETH) has rallied over 17 whilst a tailgating Ripple (XRP) is hot on its heels, both of which have left Bitcoin (BTC) for dust which traders -0.3% lower. Yesterday it was announced that Aztec, a company focussed on privacy-centric tools, has begun a 30-day ignition ceremony to roll out its workaround for “private transactions” on ETH, which appears to have helped it break above 203.95 resistance.
We can see on the daily chart that ETH produced a slight bullish divergence with RSI whilst its bullish wedge took shape. After a lacklustre breakout, it appeared the pattern was on the brink of failure, yet prices held above the 164.12 low before building up bullish momentum ahead of the trend’s acceleration. RSI has not reached overbought territory on the daily chart. And besides, a momentum high does not always mean a price high (as we need to allow for a divergence to form).
With the bullish wedge now in play, bulls could target the $240 high at the base of the wedge.
- A break above 217.33 assumes a run for the 240 high, although traders could look to buy dips above 203.95 support.
- RSI is currently overbought and a bearish pinbar has appeared to warn of near-term exhaustion. However, given the strength of daily RSI, prices might consolidate or provide a relatively shallow retracement before breaking higher.
- Ultimately, the four-hour trend remains bullish above 188.83, so bulls could look for a higher low to materialise before considering buying any dips.