Litecoin’s post-halving slump should be met with concern. The fifth-largest cryptocurrency in the market has been in a slump since the beginning of the month, with many dismissing it as simply the halving bears. However, the digital silver is now entering dangerous territory.
Since topping out at $144 during the close of June, the price has been in a free fall. At press time, Litecoin was trading below $75, a whopping 47.91 percent below its yearly high. This price depreciation did not happen suddenly, but in gradual phases.
At first, the price dropped by 15.76 percent between June 26-27, following which the price fell by another 27.31 percent between July 9-14. Between 21-24 July, the price dropped by another 10.39 percent and then finally, between 12-15 August, the price dropped by 16 percent and took the price below $80 for the first time since early May.
Looking at the daily chart, Litecoin is forming a falling wedge. The top of the same is structured via lower and lower highs, seen at $133, $123, $98, $89 and finally, $77. Barring one (immediately rectified) drop from $90 t0 $79 seen on July 16-17, LTC has been experiencing lower lows as well. Based on the daily chart, the same are placed at $118, $102, $89, $83, and $75.
The falling wedge is accompanied by a decrease in volume. If the breakout is likely to materialize, it has to be accompanied by investor interest via an uptick in volume. The digital silver is dangerously close to dropping below its key support level of $72.69, as the current price is just below $74. If this does break, the wedge will no doubt prolong itself, and the next support level that will be tested will be $66.34.
In the short-term, resistance is placed at $77, which will definitely be tested if the wedge sees a breakout. Further, the next resistance levels that will be tested are $90 and $101, but the same is unlikely given the peevish movement of Litecoin at press time.
The severely slumping price of Litecoin has been understated. Over the past two months, with LTC dropping by close to 50 percent in value, the coin has dipped below its 50, 100, 150, and 200-day moving averages. The last of the four was witnessed less than 10 days ago, on 14 August, as the price dropped by 10.27% over the day.
Back in May 2018, when LTC was priced at over $160, it slipped below the 200-day moving average. Since then, the price has dropped by 72 percent before moving over the indicator. A move over the same further pushed the coin up by 227 percent to $145 in June 2019. Hence, this indicator bears importance.
Further, the 50-day moving average is also, unsurprisingly, in a slump. If this bearish slump continues, to the degree which it is, the 50-day MA could dip below the 200-day MA, resulting in a death cross for Litecoin and thereby spelling a considerable time with the bears. The two indicators crossed over last on 15 March, when the 50-day MA moved above the 200-day MA. This resulted in a golden cross for digital silver. At the time, LTC was trading at $44.
It should be noted that Litecoin’s MACD indicator has signaled a move up as the MACD line shot above the Signal line on 23 August. Further, the histograms have turned positive for the first time since early August, indicating a mild move upwards.
A move out of the falling wedge would result in an immediate test of the $77 resistance level. However, this does rely on the volume moving upwards, as well as the MACD-over-Signal line scenario holding up for a while. On the other side, if the bears continue to maul the LTC market, the cryptocurrency could be in the perils of a death cross, which would signal a price slump for several weeks, if not months.
Litecoin Fractal Hints Bitcoin Price May Soon Tumble to $8,300
Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has entered into a lull, finding itself in a defined range between $9,500 and $11,500 and experiencing the motions of consolidation: declining volumes, few price spikes or drops, and a broad sentiment of indirection and indecision.
As reported by Ethereum World News, this massive lull has resulted in Bitcoin’s volatility index reading on BitMEX falling to a zone “where massive price moves are born”, as analyst Chonis put it.
Indeed, per this writer’s analysis of the metric, Bitcoin volatility is at a point not seen since two weeks prior to that one fateful day in April, which saw Bitcoin experience 20% explosion from $4,000 to $5,000. The metric is also as low as it was just days before Bitcoin plunged from the $6,000 cliff to the $3,000 bottom in late-2018.
But the question remains — in which direction will BTC decide to head in?
One eerily accurate fractal suggests a falling Bitcoin.
Fractal Suggests $2,000 Bitcoin Collapse
Capo of Crypto, an up-and-coming analyst, recently pointed out that Litecoin’s price action from late-2017 to late-2018 is hinting that the Bitcoin price may be poised to plunge. He pointed out in a recent tweet that Litecoin’s chart and Bitcoin’s chart look eerily accurate, with both sporting a descending triangle, multiple retests of the same bottom, and the testing of key Fibonacci Retracement levels.
If Bitcoin is to follow Litecoin’s price action in full, BTC could visit by $8,300 by the end of the month, marking a $2,000 (just under 20%) drop from current levels.
This isn’t a crazy theory? Just look at the two charts, which look structurally very similar.
This isn’t the only sign showing that bears may soon manage to wrest the control of the market from bulls.
Committing to the short-term bear, long-term bull persona, renowned analyst Dave the Wave recently noted that the $7,000 price level is still in reach for Bitcoin, with BTC’s relative strength index (RSI) reading still being relatively lofty compared to historical “bull market corrections”.
Bulls Still In Control
Despite this, there are still optimists.
Over the past few months, Bitcoin has found itself trading in a clear triangle, seeing higher lows and lower highs. While some have taken this as a bearish sign—consistently lower highs could be seen as a loss of bullish momentum—well-known analyst Jacob Canfield notes that per a study from Bulkwoski, descending triangles in an uptrend break upward 63% of the time.
The sentiment and fundamentals seem to be on the side of bulls. According to a recent impromptu poll of 4,000 cryptocurrency traders on Twitter by analyst Josh Rager, a majority — just around 60% — believe that Bitcoin will break above the triangle. And on the fundamental side, Bakkt is poised to launch its Bitcoin futures contracts to the world.
Litecoin (LTC/USD) forecast and analysis on September 17, 2019
Cryptocurrency Litecoin (LTC/USD) is trading at 71.58. Cryptocurrency quotes are trading below the moving average with a period of 55. This indicates a bullish trend on Litecoin. At the moment, cryptocurrency quotes are moving near the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator stripes.
Litecoin (LTC/USD) forecast and analysis on September 17, 2019
As part of the Litecoin course forecast, a test of the level of 70.20 is expected. Where should we expect an attempt to continue the growth of LTC/USD and the further development of the upward trend. The purpose of this movement is the area near the level of 75.20. The conservative Litecoin buying area is located near the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator strip at 68.00.
Cancellation of the option to continue the growth of the Litecoin exchange rate will be a breakdown of the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands indicator strip. As well as the moving average with a period of 55 and closing of quotations of the pair below the area of 66.20. This will indicate a change in the current trend in favor of the bearish for LTC/USD. In case of breakdown of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator bands, we should expect an acceleration in the fall of cryptocurrency.
Litecoin (LTC/USD) forecast and analysis on September 17, 2019 implies a test level of 70.20. Further growth is expected to continue to the area above the level of 75.20. The conservative area for buying Litecoin is located area of 68.00. The cancellation of the cryptocurrency growth option will be the breakdown of the level of 66.20. In this case, we should expect the continuation of the fall.
Litecoin eliminates chargebacks & high transaction fee, making it compelling case for merchants
I have probably talked to well over 1,000 businesses about Accepting Litecoin, and over 100 of them have implemented Litecoin as a means of payment”, said Jon Moore, VP of Nationwide Merchant Solutions and a vocal Litecoin proponent.
In a blog post by Litecoin Foundation, titled ‘Community Spotlight: Jon Moore Is On A #PayWithLitecoin Mission’, Moore stated that one of the main concern that he came across was that not many are unaware of the fact that Litecoin and Bitcoin can be opted as a payment option.
According to the VP, Litecoin is a great option for customers to avoid one of the most hated things in payments – “chargebacks”. He elaborated that, in the case of Litecoin transactions, customers decide exactly how much to transfer to a merchant. The merchants don’t have to worry about payment fraud since blockchain is virtually immutable.
When asked to make a compelling case as to why every merchant should accept LTC, Moore said that the cryptocurrency eliminates chargebacks and gives them an option to accept an easy payment form.
Also, Litecoin’s low transaction fees have been the biggest hit with investors. He said,
“They also save money in fees with LTC compared to those incurred from processing credit cards and other methods like PayPal.”
Source: BitInfoCharts | Litecoin Transaction Fees
He further added that when a merchant accepts Litecoin, they often gain new and loyal customers by “tapping into the fiercely loyal Litecoin community”.
One of the biggest challenges, however, that is very much prevalent, is the narrative of crypto as an investment only option, which according to Moore, is only a small part of the tech’s value. In addition to that, there are concerns surrounding the cryptocurrency industry’s price volatility. He added, “and most people don’t understand that they can convert Litecoin into US dollars.”
According to the proponent, once the masses see the bridges that exist between the traditional financial world and crypto “they generally start to feel more comfortable and warm up to the idea”. Moore is hopeful about LTC’s future, with an increasing number of products are becoming available that make it easier for people to obtain and use Litecoin.