TRON’s Justin Sun is likely benefiting from bought Twitter followers. Analysis of different metrics around his account indicate that over half of his 1.7 million followers could be fake.
People have been using bots to game Twitter since the platform’s inception. Social proof is a key component of high engagement. Vanity metrics like follower counts, likes and retweets, and comments are important for generating engagement—even if these numbers are manufactured.
Justin Sun, the founder of TRON and CEO of BitTorrent, appears to be well aware of this dynamic. He is constantly trying to one-up Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin on the platform and even bragged when he was the first one to hit 1 million followers in the crypto-sphere.
However, there’s a good possibility that Justin Sun’s popularity is part of a facade.
Manipulated vanity metrics?
Analysis of Justin Sun’s Twitter metrics shows some pretty suspicious activity. Over the last 30 days his followers have been increasing in a tight band regardless of activity, ranging from 4,400 to 7,400 new followers a day, averaging 5,050 daily.
Meanwhile, Vitalik Buterin, one of the most influential people in the industry, gained at most 200 followers in a day over the same time span, even with 20 percent more daily tweets. On average, Buterin gained 70 new followers per day over the last 30 days.
A look at aggregate data raises further questions. Justin Sun gained 1.7 million followers with 1,700 likes and 5,200 tweets on an account created August 2017. Vitalik Buterin gained 880,000 followers with 5,400 likes and 12,000 tweets with an account created May 2011.
Either Vitalik Buterin is really, really bad at marketing himself (which is somewhat true) or something more dubious is happening with Justin Sun’s vanity metrics. This comparison doesn’t prove anything by itself, but there is even more incriminating data backing the idea that Sun’s vanity metrics are manipulated.
Indicators of purchased followers
Prior to October 2018 Justin Sun had seemingly normal follower activity. Some days he lost 100 followers, others he gained as many as 500—normal variance for an undoctored account.
Suddenly, on Oct. 11, 2018, Sun gained 5,700 followers overnight without any clear cause. Beginning Oct. 18 he started racking up followers in the thousands each day during the trough of the bear market.
In May 2018 the variance is even more alarming. On May 8, he lost 31,000 followers and then gained 29,000 the next day. In three instances in June Justin Sun gained over 10,000 followers in a single day, capturing as many as 18,800 followers in 24 hours.
Suddenly, on June 28, 2018, Sun lost 88,000 followers as part of a bot sweep by Twitter. Other major cryptocurrency influencers were unimpacted.
The irregular and sudden activity suggests that Justin Sun could be purchasing thousands of followers every day. If 3,000 followers were purchased each day beginning Oct. 18, then 970,000—the majority of Justin Sun’s 1.7 million followers—would be fake.
Using bots to gain followers and generate engagement is a trivial task. There are dozens of services that sell followers, likes, and retweets by the thousands. In Sun’s case, 5,000 followers could go for as little as $100. One service even offers a “lifetime replacement guarantee” should these purchased followers get identified and banned by Twitter.
That said, purchasing followers and engagement is explicitly prohibited by Twitter’s Platform manipulation and spam policy. Accounts which engage in this kind of behavior run the risk of getting banned.
Nevertheless, it’s unclear whether Justin Sun is the one behind purchasing these followers. It is possible that a TRON super fan, or even a hedge fund, could be responsible for gaming the metrics. But, as Justin Sun said himself, he’s renowned for his “vulgar hype and marketing behavior.” Manipulating Twitter metrics seems in-line with his other gimmicks.
If it’s discovered that Justin Sun is the one behind the manipulation then it would just be another incident where the TRON founder prioritizes hype over substance.
Tron (TRX) Price Analysis: Bulls Eyeing Recovery Above $0.0165
- Tron price is currently recovering and is trading above the $0.0150 resistance against the US Dollar.
- TRX price is facing a few key hurdles near the $0.0162 and $0.0165 levels.
- There was a break above a crucial bearish trend line with resistance near $0.0156 on the 4-hours chart (data feed via Bitfinex).
- The price is likely to gain bullish momentum once it surpasses the $0.0162 and $0.0165 resistance levels.
TRON price is showing positive signs against the US Dollar and bitcoin. TRX price could recover significantly if it settles above the $0.0165 resistance area.
Tron Price Analysis
Earlier this month, TRON price traded to a new multi-week low near the $0.0140 level against the US Dollar. Later, the price recovered sharply above the $0.0150 level and the 55 simple moving average (4-hours). However, the upward move was capped by the $0.0162 level. Recently, there was a downside correction and the price traded as low as $0.0144. At the moment, the price is climbing higher and is trading above the $0.0150 level.
During the recent rise, there was a break above a crucial bearish trend line with resistance near $0.0156 on the 4-hours chart. The price traded as high as $0.0159 before correcting below $0.0158. It broke the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last wave from the $0.0144 low to $0.0159 high. However, the $0.0155 level and the 55 SMA are acting as strong supports.
The current price action is positive above the $0.0155 support. Having said that, there are two important hurdles for the bulls on the upside near $0.0162 and $0.0165. If there is a convincing break above the $0.0162 and $0.0165 resistance levels, the price could continue to rise. In the mentioned case, the price is likely to surge towards the $0.0180 and $0.0185 resistance levels.
Conversely, if there is fresh decline, the $0.0155 level and the 55 SMA might provide support. The main support is near the $0.0151 and $0.0150 levels, below which the price could again turn bearish. The next key supports are near the $0.0144 and $0.0140 levels.
The chart indicates that TRX price is showing a few positive signs above the $0.0155 support area. However, the bulls might face a strong selling interest near $0.0162. If they succeed in gaining strength above $0.0162, the price will most likely surge above $0.0165. If they fail, the price could revisit $0.0150 or even $0.0144.
4 hours MACD – The MACD for TRX/USD is slowly gaining momentum in the bullish zone.
4 hours RSI – The RSI for TRX/USD is currently climbing higher and is well above the 50 level.
Key Support Levels – $0.0155 and $0.0150.
Key Resistance Levels – $0.0162, $0.0165 and $0.0180.
Tron Price Takes a Marginal Dip Since Yesterday
Tron price is suffering from the drop. The currency had quite a disappointing quarter. From July till now, TRX price has fallen by almost 50%. The drop has caused a substantial change in the market cap also. If we look at yesterday’s statistics, the coin touched a high at 0.016041 USD and a low at 0.015475 USD.
Tron to USD Price Comparison & Predictions
Tron started yesterday at $0.015899. The currency fell to $0.015719 by 1.13%. Further, TRX revived and touched $0.015922 by 1.27%. Later, the coin dropped to $0.015438 by 3.04%. The currency closed the day at $0.015601 with regression of 1.87%.
Today, Tron price escalated at the beginning of the day. The price changed from $0.015601 to $0.015787 by 1.19%. TRX coin is dealing at $0.015787 and is expected to keep the price at the same level for the rest of the day.
TRX coin had a fabulous first half of this year. The currency was among top forces in the crypto market and dealt in fabulous market cap. The 24-hour volume of Tron is $526,691,731. The circulating supply is noted as 66,682,072,191 TRX. It is anticipated that TRX would close the year, reaching up to $0.020. The currency would go best with short-term traders.
Tron Has Recovered from The Early Bearish Trend; Listed Recently on DigiFinex Exchange
Tron and DigiFinex exchange recently announced a tie-up. Soon, the exchange will launch a TRX trading market where users can trade in BTT/TRX and WIN/TRX pairs. Further, DigiFinex will launch a Tron blockchain index consisting of BitTorrent (BTT) and WINk (WIN). It will ultimately reflect the market performance of Tron blockchain. Additionally, the exchange also assured for other Tron-based project listings in the future.
Current Statistics of Tron:
- On September 15, at UTC 06:04, Tron (TRX) was trading around 0.01570186 USD.
- Against Bitcoin, the crypto was valued around 0.00000153 BTC per chip.
- At present, the market rank of Tron (TRX) is 14th in the cryptocurrency chart.
- Additionally, the market capitalization of the altcoin was around 1,051,151,514 USD.
- At the same time, the 24-hour trading volume in the coin was 588,385,505 USD.
- With a return on investment of 668.49%, a total of 66,682,072,191 TRX chips were circulating in the market at the time of writing.
TRX to USD Price Comparison:
On August 19, Tron was trading around 0.01829 USD. However, today after 25-days, the coin has declined by a margin of 14.15%. In the weekly chart, the coin has almost recovered to its earlier level of 0.0158 USD, where it was trading on September 09. The coin declined heavily in the first few days of the week but made a bounce-back afterward. In the intraday trading, on yesterday, the coin opened 0.015528 USD, and with a hike of 1.8%, it wrapped the day around 0.015808 USD.
Tron Price Prediction and Conclusion:
The declining trend in Tron has consolidated in the last couple of days. As per our analysis, Tron (TRX) might trade around 0.05 USD by the end of 2019. At present, the immediate resistance for the coin is at 0.01607 USD, and the support level is at 0.01538 USD.
The strategic partnership with of Tron with DigiFinex will be of mutual benefit for both of them. The listing of Tron on the exchange is also a piece of delightful news for the user community. Meanwhile, it is the time for buying and holding the coin for a better return in the future.