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Bear Trap? Bitcoin Price Dips Below $10K on Low Volumes

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  • Bitcoin’s drop from $10,949 to $9,855 (Wednesday low) may be a bear trap, as selling volumes have dropped throughout the price pullback.
  • A widely-tracked 4-hour chart indicator is reporting a bullish divergence and the daily candlesticks are signaling seller exhaustion. BTC could rise above $10,270, confirming a falling wedge breakout on the 4-hour chart.
  • A wedge breakout, if confirmed, would open the doors to $10,956 (Aug. 20 high). A UTC close above that level would confirm bull revival.
  • On the lower side, a high-volume drop below $9,855 could pave way for a deeper drop toward $9,500. Currently, that looks unlikely.

Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered from nine-day lows hit earlier on Wednesday and may pick up a strong bid during the day ahead.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value fell to $9,855 on Bitstamp during the Asian trading hours, the lowest level since Sept. 2. At that level, prices were down 11 percent from Friday’s high of $10,950.

At time of writing, BTC is changing hands around $10,000, representing a 1.9 percent drop on a 24-hour basis.

BTC’s drop into four figures seen earlier today validated the bearish view put forward by BTC’s failed breakout on the hourly chart on Monday.

Further, the daily chart is reporting bearish conditions with a lower-highs setup. The cryptocurrency has also found acceptance below key hourly chart support of $10,060.

Even so, the sellers need to observe caution, as the recent pullback lacks volume support and may prove a bear trap, as seen in the chart below.

4-hour chart

Selling volumes (red bars) have been consistently higher than buying volumes (green bars) through the price pullback from $10,950 to $9,855.

However, the red bars have produced lower highs, meaning the selling volume, or pressure, has eased along with the price.

A low-volume decline is often short-lived and ends up trapping the bears on the wrong side of the market.

Also, the pullback has taken the shape of a falling wedge on the 4-hour chart. A falling wedge comprises of converging trendlines connecting lower highs and lower lows and is widely considered a bullish reversal pattern.

A break above the upper edge of the falling wedge, currently at $10,270, would confirm a breakout and open the doors for re-test of the recent high of $10,949.

The breakout looks likely as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, a widely-tracked trend following indicator, is reporting a bullish divergence – higher lows contradicting lower lows on price.

The bullish case would weaken if prices drop below the previous long-tailed candle’s low of $9,855 with a solid rise in selling volumes (red bar breaches falling trendline).

Daily chart

The long tails attached to the previous three candles indicate dip demand near the daily lows or bearish exhaustion – in effect, the sellers fought to keep prices lower, but lost as the buyers pushed the price up.

The daily chart also shows a steady drop in selling volumes in the last five days.

So, BTC may move higher, possibly to levels above $10,270 during the next 24 hours, confirming a breakout on the 4-hour chart.

The outlook as per the daily chart would turn bullish if prices invalidate the bearish lower highs setup with a UTC close above $10,956 (Aug. 20 high).

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Hodl Hodl Wants You to Clone Its Bitcoin Exchange

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Hodl Hodl plans to make its software freely available so anyone can launch their own version of the peer-to-peer bitcoin exchange.

Announced Saturday at the Baltic Honeybadger conference in Riga, Latvia, the plan is, in part, a recognition that Hodl Hodl’s business model is vulnerable to regulatory crackdowns.

“History teaches us that if a government wants to shut you down, it will,” Hodl Hodl CEO Max Keidun told CoinDesk.

Open-sourcing the code for its smart contracts, which Hodl Hodl intends to do sometime next year, is a way to deal with the threat, Keidun said, explaining:

“Let’s imagine, our domain gets blocked — some activist would be able to just take the code from Github, fork it and launch something new.”

Already, people in Africa, Asia and Latin America have reached out to the company, asking about such an opportunity, he said. “Peer-to-peer is something emerging markets, in particular, are interested in.”

Rare breed

Hodl Hodl is a rare animal in the 2019 crypto world: as a matter of principle, it focuses on bitcoin (the only cryptocurrency that the company’s founders trust), it doesn’t do know-your-customer (KYC) checks and it has no plan to start.

Why not? “Because we don’t like three-letter abbreviations,” Hodl Hodl’s CTO, Roman Snitko, joked in a slide for his presentation to the Riga conference.

In all seriousness, Hodl Hodl is averse to holding the sensitive personal information that financial institutions are mandated to collect from customers under global anti-money-laundering (AML) regulations.

“We think KYC/AML does more harm by exposing law-abiding users to fraudsters and criminals,” Snitko told CoinDesk. “The information and documents users upload to exchanges has been stolen many times in the past. It also does very little to prevent actual money laundering and criminals from using those services. They always find ways.”

Yet regulators across the globe are tightening the screws on the industry to identify the parties to transactions. Most notably, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an intergovernmental body, has directed its member countries to make exchanges collect and store information about who their customers trade with.

Winds of change

Hodl Hodl’s founders believe they don’t have to identify customers because the exchange never takes custody of users’ funds.

Rather, it lists offers to buy or sell bitcoin and provides an escrow service in which the seller locks bitcoin in a multi-signature smart contract until the buyer sends fiat. Releasing the bitcoin requires 2 out of 3 signatures, belonging to the buyer, seller, and Hodl Hodl (which steps in as a referee when there’s a dispute).

“We don’t touch the crypto, don’t match users automatically and don’t keep funds in our wallets,” Keidun said. “We create multisigs in a public blockchain,”

In the same June guidance, the FATF said even peer-to-peer platforms may be subject to such regulations in cases “where the platform facilitates the exchange.” It’s unclear whether Hodl Hodl’s escrow service counts as “facilitating.”

But the founders see the way the wind is blowing.

“We’re not switching to the open-source model exclusively because of the regulatory pressure,” Snitko told CoinDesk. “In fact, we haven’t experienced any due to the fact that we’re a non-custodial exchange. However, we do foresee regulators becoming more desperate in their attempts to contain the spread of bitcoin and we refuse to be the victims of desperate actions.”

Passing the reins

At some point, Keidun and Snitko might hand management of Hodl Hodl to others so they can focus entirely on supporting and upgrading the code. (The exchange says it has no head office; employees work remotely, serving 10,000 users worldwide.)

“We want to create a community around us, so that at some point we could pass the reins to other people,” Keidun said. There is no timeframe for that yet.

In his Riga presentation, Snitko also announced Hodl Hodl’s intention to open “a bitcoin smart contract app store.”

Another way people can utilize the code is payments for e-commerce, and in the coming months, the team will focus on making the technology plug-and-play, so people who are not proficient coders can easily deploy it in their online store and accept bitcoin.

“We want to launch a platform for bitcoin smart contracts, so that anyone who wants to sell homes online or do [over-the-counter] trades could use it,” Keidun said, adding that it might be a multi-sig with more than three signatures and it can be used for multiple use cases.

Aside from bitcoin-to-fiat trades, Hodl Hodl’s multi-sig escrow is used in a peer-to-peer predictions market when people bet on things like the price of bitcoin or publicly traded stock, sports results and other measurable outcomes. A real estate platform is also in the works, with a launch tentatively scheduled for 2020, Keidun said.

source.coindesk.

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Bitcoin’s Record Hash Rate May Hint at Price Gains to Come

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  • With the hash rate or miner’s confidence hitting record highs, bitcoin’s three-day narrowing price range looks set to end with a bullish breakout.
  • A range breakout would open the doors to $10,956 – the bearish lower high created on Aug. 20.
  • A break below Friday’s low of $10,154 would confirm a range breakdown and could yield a sell-off to $9,855 (Sept. 11 low).

Bitcoin’s latest bout of consolidation may end up with bullish breakout, as a key metric of miner confidence has hit all-time highs.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has clocked lower daily highs and higher daily lows over the last three days and is currently trading at $10,300 on Bitstamp, little changed on a 24-hour basis.

The cryptocurrency has charted the narrowing price range amid a surge in non-price metrics including a rise in the network’s hash rate – a measure of the computing power dedicated to mining bitcoin.

Notably, the two-week average hash rate reached a record high of 85 exahashes per second (EH/s) around 19:00 UTC on Friday. Further, mining difficulty – a measure of how hard it is to create a block of transactions – also jumped to a new all-time high of nearly 12 trillion.

Hash rate can be considered a barometer of miners’ confidence in the bitcoin price rally. After all, they are more likely to dedicate more resources to the computer intensive process that secures the network and processes transactions if they are bullish on price. Miners would likely scale back operations if a price slide is expected.

Hence, many observers, including the likes of Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance, and former Wall Street trader and journalist Max Keiser believe prices follow hash rate.

Zhao tweeted on Friday that, a rising hash rate means “more miners are investing in BTC,” while few other observers stated that sellers should think twice before betting against the most secure blockchain (the higher the hash rate of a cryptocurrency network, the more expensive it is to attack).

It is worth noting, though, that the market is divided on the relationship between price and hash rate.

Some observers believe the hash rate follows price and the metric’s stellar performance represents overtly exuberant miners.

That said, the price is likely to follow the hash rate this time, as over-exuberance is typically observed at market tops or near record highs. As of now, BTC is down almost $10,000 from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

Further, with the next reward halving (supply cut) due in less than a year, market sentiment is quite bullish. The sustained uptick in miners’ confidence is more likely to draw fresh bids, possibly leading to a positive feedback loop.

Daily and 4-hour charts

Bitcoin has charted (above left) back-to-back inside bar candlestick pattern on the daily chart over the last three days. The first inside bar appeared on Friday as that day’s high and low fell within Thursday’s trading range. The second and the third inside bar candle was created on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Inside bars indicate consolidation and lack of volatility, often ending with an explosive move on either side. A break below the first inside bar’s (Friday) low of $10,154 would imply range breakdown and could yield a stronger sell-off to levels below $9,855 (Sept. 11 low).

A break above Friday’s high of $10,458 would imply range breakout and open the doors to $10,956 (July 20 high).

The falling wedge breakout confirmed on the 4-hour chart (above right) last week is still valid. So, the probability of range breakout is high.

source.coindesk.

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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) forecast and analysis on September 16, 2019

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading at 10308. Cryptocurrency quotes are trading above the moving average with a period of 55. This indicates a bullish trend on Bitcoin. At the moment, cryptocurrency quotes are moving near the middle border of the Bollinger Bands indicator stripes.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) forecast and analysis on September 16, 2019

As part of the Bitcoin exchange rate forecast, a test of the level of 10220 is expected. Where can we expect an attempt to continue the growth of BTC/USD and the further development of the upward trend. The purpose of this movement is the area near the level of 10850. The conservative area for buying Bitcoin is located near the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator strip at the level of 9950.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) forecast and analysis on September 16, 2019

Cancellation of the option to continue the growth of the Bitcoin exchange rate will be a breakdown of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator stripes. As well as a moving average with a period of 55 and closing of quotations of the pair below the area of ​​9840. This will indicate a change in the current trend in favor of the bearish for BTC/USD. In case of breakdown of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator bands, we should expect an acceleration in the fall of cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) forecast and analysis on September 16, 2019 implies a test level of 10220. Further growth is expected to continue to the area above the level of 10850. The conservative area for buying Bitcoin is located area of 9950. Cancellation of the growth option of cryptocurrency will be a breakdown of the level of 9840. In this case, we can expect further the fall.

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