Last night, the Bitcoin price took a hit and went below $10,000 yet again.
Today, the BTC price went even lower to $9,855. With a loss of 1.85% loss in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin is trading at $10,054, as per Coincodex.
As Bitcoin price takes a dive, the bulls are struggling with the bears for dominance.
Bitcoin price has broken through the current support area on the daily and 20MA. According to trader and investor, Josh Rager, if buyers don’t step in the market in the next couple of days, Bitcoin will retest the previous support in the region $9,620 and $9,375, that held three times.
Once we drop in the low $9,000s, the next move would lead to $8,000, he added.
However, with Bitcoin hash rate hitting a new all-time high (ATH) at 100 EH and miners investing like crazy in new hardware, popular analyst planB says
“Price will follow.”
Bitcoin hash rate has been surging since December when the price hit its bottom. Just like with hash rate, mining difficulty is on the rise as well, hitting an ATH.
How will Bitcoin Price React to Bakkt Launch?
In the coming days, the much anticipated Bakkt is going to be launched and bring physically delivered daily and monthly bitcoin futures to the market, unlike the cash settled BTC futures on CME.
This will create price discover apart from any fiat market influence, said PlanB.
But how will it impact the BTC price?
As per PlanB’s poll on “How do you think bitcoin price will react?” the majority of the voters believe BTC price will rise but this percentage of people at 29% isn’t much higher than 23% that believe either price would drop or would see no change.
However, last week, Bakkt Warehouse started accepting deposits and withdrawals — that Andy White, COO at Bakkt compared with the launch of ATMs about 50 years ago — Bitcoin price took a drop of more than 6%, from $10,950 to about $10,220.
So, it is to be seen, if Bakkt launch will end up acting like “buy the rumor, sell the news.”
Macro Sneak Peak
US President Donald Trump yet again took to Twitter to suggest that the Federal Reserve should get the interest rates down to “zero or less.”
The US should always be paying the “lowest rate,” according to Mr. President which is “once in a lifetime opportunity” being missed because of the Fed and Chairman Jay Powell, aka “Boneheads.”
Hodl Hodl Wants You to Clone Its Bitcoin Exchange
Hodl Hodl plans to make its software freely available so anyone can launch their own version of the peer-to-peer bitcoin exchange.
Announced Saturday at the Baltic Honeybadger conference in Riga, Latvia, the plan is, in part, a recognition that Hodl Hodl’s business model is vulnerable to regulatory crackdowns.
“History teaches us that if a government wants to shut you down, it will,” Hodl Hodl CEO Max Keidun told CoinDesk.
Open-sourcing the code for its smart contracts, which Hodl Hodl intends to do sometime next year, is a way to deal with the threat, Keidun said, explaining:
“Let’s imagine, our domain gets blocked — some activist would be able to just take the code from Github, fork it and launch something new.”
Already, people in Africa, Asia and Latin America have reached out to the company, asking about such an opportunity, he said. “Peer-to-peer is something emerging markets, in particular, are interested in.”
Hodl Hodl is a rare animal in the 2019 crypto world: as a matter of principle, it focuses on bitcoin (the only cryptocurrency that the company’s founders trust), it doesn’t do know-your-customer (KYC) checks and it has no plan to start.
Why not? “Because we don’t like three-letter abbreviations,” Hodl Hodl’s CTO, Roman Snitko, joked in a slide for his presentation to the Riga conference.
In all seriousness, Hodl Hodl is averse to holding the sensitive personal information that financial institutions are mandated to collect from customers under global anti-money-laundering (AML) regulations.
“We think KYC/AML does more harm by exposing law-abiding users to fraudsters and criminals,” Snitko told CoinDesk. “The information and documents users upload to exchanges has been stolen many times in the past. It also does very little to prevent actual money laundering and criminals from using those services. They always find ways.”
Yet regulators across the globe are tightening the screws on the industry to identify the parties to transactions. Most notably, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an intergovernmental body, has directed its member countries to make exchanges collect and store information about who their customers trade with.
Winds of change
Hodl Hodl’s founders believe they don’t have to identify customers because the exchange never takes custody of users’ funds.
Rather, it lists offers to buy or sell bitcoin and provides an escrow service in which the seller locks bitcoin in a multi-signature smart contract until the buyer sends fiat. Releasing the bitcoin requires 2 out of 3 signatures, belonging to the buyer, seller, and Hodl Hodl (which steps in as a referee when there’s a dispute).
“We don’t touch the crypto, don’t match users automatically and don’t keep funds in our wallets,” Keidun said. “We create multisigs in a public blockchain,”
In the same June guidance, the FATF said even peer-to-peer platforms may be subject to such regulations in cases “where the platform facilitates the exchange.” It’s unclear whether Hodl Hodl’s escrow service counts as “facilitating.”
But the founders see the way the wind is blowing.
“We’re not switching to the open-source model exclusively because of the regulatory pressure,” Snitko told CoinDesk. “In fact, we haven’t experienced any due to the fact that we’re a non-custodial exchange. However, we do foresee regulators becoming more desperate in their attempts to contain the spread of bitcoin and we refuse to be the victims of desperate actions.”
Passing the reins
At some point, Keidun and Snitko might hand management of Hodl Hodl to others so they can focus entirely on supporting and upgrading the code. (The exchange says it has no head office; employees work remotely, serving 10,000 users worldwide.)
“We want to create a community around us, so that at some point we could pass the reins to other people,” Keidun said. There is no timeframe for that yet.
In his Riga presentation, Snitko also announced Hodl Hodl’s intention to open “a bitcoin smart contract app store.”
Another way people can utilize the code is payments for e-commerce, and in the coming months, the team will focus on making the technology plug-and-play, so people who are not proficient coders can easily deploy it in their online store and accept bitcoin.
“We want to launch a platform for bitcoin smart contracts, so that anyone who wants to sell homes online or do [over-the-counter] trades could use it,” Keidun said, adding that it might be a multi-sig with more than three signatures and it can be used for multiple use cases.
Aside from bitcoin-to-fiat trades, Hodl Hodl’s multi-sig escrow is used in a peer-to-peer predictions market when people bet on things like the price of bitcoin or publicly traded stock, sports results and other measurable outcomes. A real estate platform is also in the works, with a launch tentatively scheduled for 2020, Keidun said.
Bitcoin’s Record Hash Rate May Hint at Price Gains to Come
- With the hash rate or miner’s confidence hitting record highs, bitcoin’s three-day narrowing price range looks set to end with a bullish breakout.
- A range breakout would open the doors to $10,956 – the bearish lower high created on Aug. 20.
- A break below Friday’s low of $10,154 would confirm a range breakdown and could yield a sell-off to $9,855 (Sept. 11 low).
Bitcoin’s latest bout of consolidation may end up with bullish breakout, as a key metric of miner confidence has hit all-time highs.
The top cryptocurrency by market value has clocked lower daily highs and higher daily lows over the last three days and is currently trading at $10,300 on Bitstamp, little changed on a 24-hour basis.
The cryptocurrency has charted the narrowing price range amid a surge in non-price metrics including a rise in the network’s hash rate – a measure of the computing power dedicated to mining bitcoin.
Notably, the two-week average hash rate reached a record high of 85 exahashes per second (EH/s) around 19:00 UTC on Friday. Further, mining difficulty – a measure of how hard it is to create a block of transactions – also jumped to a new all-time high of nearly 12 trillion.
Hash rate can be considered a barometer of miners’ confidence in the bitcoin price rally. After all, they are more likely to dedicate more resources to the computer intensive process that secures the network and processes transactions if they are bullish on price. Miners would likely scale back operations if a price slide is expected.
Hence, many observers, including the likes of Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance, and former Wall Street trader and journalist Max Keiser believe prices follow hash rate.
Zhao tweeted on Friday that, a rising hash rate means “more miners are investing in BTC,” while few other observers stated that sellers should think twice before betting against the most secure blockchain (the higher the hash rate of a cryptocurrency network, the more expensive it is to attack).
It is worth noting, though, that the market is divided on the relationship between price and hash rate.
Some observers believe the hash rate follows price and the metric’s stellar performance represents overtly exuberant miners.
That said, the price is likely to follow the hash rate this time, as over-exuberance is typically observed at market tops or near record highs. As of now, BTC is down almost $10,000 from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.
Further, with the next reward halving (supply cut) due in less than a year, market sentiment is quite bullish. The sustained uptick in miners’ confidence is more likely to draw fresh bids, possibly leading to a positive feedback loop.
Daily and 4-hour charts
Bitcoin has charted (above left) back-to-back inside bar candlestick pattern on the daily chart over the last three days. The first inside bar appeared on Friday as that day’s high and low fell within Thursday’s trading range. The second and the third inside bar candle was created on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
Inside bars indicate consolidation and lack of volatility, often ending with an explosive move on either side. A break below the first inside bar’s (Friday) low of $10,154 would imply range breakdown and could yield a stronger sell-off to levels below $9,855 (Sept. 11 low).
A break above Friday’s high of $10,458 would imply range breakout and open the doors to $10,956 (July 20 high).
The falling wedge breakout confirmed on the 4-hour chart (above right) last week is still valid. So, the probability of range breakout is high.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) forecast and analysis on September 16, 2019
Cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading at 10308. Cryptocurrency quotes are trading above the moving average with a period of 55. This indicates a bullish trend on Bitcoin. At the moment, cryptocurrency quotes are moving near the middle border of the Bollinger Bands indicator stripes.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) forecast and analysis on September 16, 2019
As part of the Bitcoin exchange rate forecast, a test of the level of 10220 is expected. Where can we expect an attempt to continue the growth of BTC/USD and the further development of the upward trend. The purpose of this movement is the area near the level of 10850. The conservative area for buying Bitcoin is located near the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator strip at the level of 9950.
Cancellation of the option to continue the growth of the Bitcoin exchange rate will be a breakdown of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator stripes. As well as a moving average with a period of 55 and closing of quotations of the pair below the area of 9840. This will indicate a change in the current trend in favor of the bearish for BTC/USD. In case of breakdown of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator bands, we should expect an acceleration in the fall of cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) forecast and analysis on September 16, 2019 implies a test level of 10220. Further growth is expected to continue to the area above the level of 10850. The conservative area for buying Bitcoin is located area of 9950. Cancellation of the growth option of cryptocurrency will be a breakdown of the level of 9840. In this case, we can expect further the fall.