The third largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, XRP has been in a price turbulence for most of the year.
It has lost a significant part of its price since the last year till the beginning of 2019 and while it seemed like it was gathering momentum for a breakout at a point when Bitcoin was surging massively, such hope seems lost as it has dipped below $0.3, a critical level according to analysts.
This has caused a lot of confusion as to what is responsible for price changes of XRP.
Ripple, the company behind XRP has received most of the blame for the price of XRP, but recent data from Coinmetrics shows that Bitcoin (BTC) is the leading determinant of XRP price.
This may come as a shock because BTC is just another cryptocurrency which XRP supporters believe will become second to XRP some day.
Ripple’s Many Clients Can’t Help
Factors determining XRP monthly price.
According to the data, BTC price is responsible for 79% of the determining factors for XRP price. This is a massive influence that makes BTC an integral determinant of XRP’s future as well.
User growth which may be a major contributor to price as usability of cryptocurrencies lead to growth, is second to BTC’s influence here, accounting for only 19%.
This may be an explanation for why the price of the number three cryptocurrency has not responded positively despite Ripple’s claims of many institutional clients.
Other factors responsible for XRP’s monthly price action possess 2% influence.
This includes Ripple’s purported dumping of XRP which XRP investors and holders are protesting against, with a petition that has received a lot of support.
The 2% also involves the activities of other whales that have significant impact on the market due to the amount of XRP they hold.
What does the future hold for XRP?
If BTC has so much influence on XRP, the question is, what lies ahead?
Already, BTC has made significant progress in price and the famous view is that BTC will kill altcoins on its way up.
Although BTC influences the entire crypto market to a large extent by determining price direction, its over 200% gain in 2019 has not been reflected in the altcoin market as altcoins such as XRP have suffered while it went up.
As BTC dominance continues to rise, there are two possible scenarios expected according to analysts.
We could have a scenario where Bitcoin will need to crash for altcoins surge while truncating of altcoins’ growth permanently is another possible set-up.
Whichever plays out, it will be confusing to predict the fate of XRP as it has not done well both when BTC is surging and when it is down.
BTC is in the red at the time of writing this article and so is XRP.
However after suffering a terrible market for so long, investors and holders can only hope that things get better for XRP in the future, but of course this is not guaranteed.
Ripple Price (XRP) Facing Uphill Task, Can Bulls Make It?
- Ripple price is still struggling to surpass the main $0.2650 resistance area against the US dollar.
- The price is showing a few positive signs, but it must break the $0.2650 resistance level.
- There is a major breakout pattern forming with support near $0.2585 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
- The price could either rally above $0.2650 or it might resume its decline below the $0.2580 level.
Ripple price is trading well below the $0.2650 resistance against the US Dollar, and ranging vs bitcoin. XRP price could soon make the next move either above $0.2650 or towards $0.2500.
Ripple Price Analysis
In the past 2-3 weeks, XRP price made many attempts to surpass the $0.2650 resistance area against the US Dollar. However, the bulls failed to gain momentum above $0.2640 and $0.2650. On the other hand, Ethereum was able to break the $185 resistance area to start an upward move. Therefore, ripple bulls need to gain pace above $0.2650 to start a solid upward move in the coming days.
The last swing low was formed near $0.2566 and the recent high was near $0.2628. At the moment, the price is correcting lower below $0.2610 and trading well above the 100 hourly simple moving average. An immediate support is near the $0.2600 level. It coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $0.2566 low to $0.2628 high.
The main support on the downside is near the $0.2590 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Additionally, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $0.2566 low to $0.2628 high is near $0.2590. More importantly, there is a major breakout pattern forming with support near $0.2585 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair.
Therefore, ripple price seems to be preparing for the next major break either above $0.2650 or towards $0.2500. This time, the chances of an upside break above $0.2650 are high. If the bulls gain control above $0.2650, the price could climb higher significantly towards $0.2850 or even $0.3000 in the near term. Conversely, if it fails again near $0.2650, there could be a fresh decline towards the $0.2500 support.
Looking at the chart, ripple price is confined in a broad range below the $0.2650 resistance. There could be more ranging moves, but sooner or later, the price is likely to break the $0.2650 resistance area.
Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is currently placed nicely in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is correcting lower towards the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $0.2600, $0.2580 and $0.2550.
Major Resistance Levels – $0.2640, $0.2650 and $0.2720.
Ripple bulls woke up and pushed XRP/USD towards $0.27 in a matter of minutes
- XRP/USD gains over 2% of its value in a matter of minutes.
- The further upside is limited at this stage.
Ripple’s XRP has jumped from $0.2600 to $0.2680 in a matter of minutes. By the time of writing, XRP/USD has retreated to $0.2670, though the upside momentum remains strong. The third largest digital asset has gained over 2% since the beginning of the day and 1.4% on a day-on-day basis.
The fundamental triggers of the move remain unknown so far.
Looking technically, the price has returned to the area below the upper line of four-hour Bollinger Band currently at $0.2676. Considering that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reversing to the downside on the intraday timeframes, XRP/USD is vulnerable to the technical correction after a strong movement. The first area of support is located on the approach to $0.2660 ( the upper line of one-hour Bollinger Band). Once below, the sell-off may be extended towards $0.2610-$0.2600 area strengthened by SMA200 (Simple Moving Average) four-hour.
On the upside, a new attempt at $0.2680 looks unlikely thus far; however, if it is cleared, the upside trend wil gain traction with the next focus on $0.2775 (SMA50 daily).
Ripple technical analysis: XRP/USD keeps crawling along horizontally
- XRP/USD went down from $0.262 to $0.261 so far this Tuesday.
- The SMA 20 curve acts as immediate market support.
XRP/USD daily chart
XRP/USD daily price keeps trending along horizontally. The price has gone down so far from $0.262 to $0.261 this Tuesday. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA 200) and SMA 50 curves are trending above the XRP/USD price. The SMA 20 curve acts as immediate market support.
XRP/USD 4-hour chart
The 4-hour XRP/USD is consolidating within a triangle formation. The price broke above the red Ichimoku cloud. The SMA 200 acts as market resistance while trending above the SMA 50 and SMA 20 curves. The Elliott oscillator shows 11 straight bearish sessions.
XRP/USD hourly chart
The hourly XRP/USD chart is trending in a downward channel formation. The narrowing of the 20-day Bollinger jaw shows decreasing market volatility. The latest price session has dropped below the SMA 50 curve, while it above the SMA 200 and SMA 20 curves. The relative strength index (RSI) indicator is trending around 50.
|Today last price||0.2607|
|Today Daily Change||-0.0010|
|Today Daily Change %||-0.38|
|Today daily open||0.2617|
|Previous Daily High||0.2637|
|Previous Daily Low||0.2569|
|Previous Weekly High||0.2665|
|Previous Weekly Low||0.2511|
|Previous Monthly High||0.3308|
|Previous Monthly Low||0.2392|
|Daily Fibonacci 38.2%||0.2611|
|Daily Fibonacci 61.8%||0.2595|
|Daily Pivot Point S1||0.2578|
|Daily Pivot Point S2||0.254|
|Daily Pivot Point S3||0.251|
|Daily Pivot Point R1||0.2646|
|Daily Pivot Point R2||0.2676|
|Daily Pivot Point R3||0.2715|