Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has entered into a lull, finding itself in a defined range between $9,500 and $11,500 and experiencing the motions of consolidation: declining volumes, few price spikes or drops, and a broad sentiment of indirection and indecision.
As reported by Ethereum World News, this massive lull has resulted in Bitcoin’s volatility index reading on BitMEX falling to a zone “where massive price moves are born”, as analyst Chonis put it.
Indeed, per this writer’s analysis of the metric, Bitcoin volatility is at a point not seen since two weeks prior to that one fateful day in April, which saw Bitcoin experience 20% explosion from $4,000 to $5,000. The metric is also as low as it was just days before Bitcoin plunged from the $6,000 cliff to the $3,000 bottom in late-2018.
But the question remains — in which direction will BTC decide to head in?
One eerily accurate fractal suggests a falling Bitcoin.
Fractal Suggests $2,000 Bitcoin Collapse
Capo of Crypto, an up-and-coming analyst, recently pointed out that Litecoin’s price action from late-2017 to late-2018 is hinting that the Bitcoin price may be poised to plunge. He pointed out in a recent tweet that Litecoin’s chart and Bitcoin’s chart look eerily accurate, with both sporting a descending triangle, multiple retests of the same bottom, and the testing of key Fibonacci Retracement levels.
If Bitcoin is to follow Litecoin’s price action in full, BTC could visit by $8,300 by the end of the month, marking a $2,000 (just under 20%) drop from current levels.
This isn’t a crazy theory? Just look at the two charts, which look structurally very similar.
This isn’t the only sign showing that bears may soon manage to wrest the control of the market from bulls.
Committing to the short-term bear, long-term bull persona, renowned analyst Dave the Wave recently noted that the $7,000 price level is still in reach for Bitcoin, with BTC’s relative strength index (RSI) reading still being relatively lofty compared to historical “bull market corrections”.
Bulls Still In Control
Despite this, there are still optimists.
Over the past few months, Bitcoin has found itself trading in a clear triangle, seeing higher lows and lower highs. While some have taken this as a bearish sign—consistently lower highs could be seen as a loss of bullish momentum—well-known analyst Jacob Canfield notes that per a study from Bulkwoski, descending triangles in an uptrend break upward 63% of the time.
The sentiment and fundamentals seem to be on the side of bulls. According to a recent impromptu poll of 4,000 cryptocurrency traders on Twitter by analyst Josh Rager, a majority — just around 60% — believe that Bitcoin will break above the triangle. And on the fundamental side, Bakkt is poised to launch its Bitcoin futures contracts to the world.