If you’ve followed the price of Bitcoin (BTC) at all over the past few weeks, you know there is a large lack of volatility. In fact, for the past 20-odd days, the leading cryptocurrency has been stuck in an effectively 8% range — something that doesn’t happen all too often.
This likely leaves you wondering — what comes next for the cryptocurrency market? More sideways price action or a spike?
Apparently, it’s the latter.
Analyst CryptoHamster noted that a Bitcoin price breakout “is approaching”, looking to the fact that the one-day Bollinger Bands (a technical indicator meant to determine ranges) have begun to heavily tighten.
Their observation comes shortly after prominent analyst Josh Rager wrote the following on Twitter: “With three weeks of sideways and the bbands starting to pinch, Bitcoin price could see some volatility soon.”
Indeed, as the chart above shows, periods of tight Bollinger Band ranges have preceded large breakouts at least four times this year, implying that this time is going to be no different.
That’s not all. Volume levels on BitMEX, the leading Bitcoin futures platform, have begun to fall to multi-month lows. Low volume in markets after a period of consolidation is often indicative of impending volatility.
Chart courtesy of Skew.com
Bitcoin Price to Mount Higher
While the breakout could head in any direction, analysts are leaning bullish on Bitcoin at the moment.
Brave New Coin’s Josh Olszewicz recently noted that the Tenkan and Kijun lines of the Ichimoku Cloud suggest that BTC has a higher chance of reverting to a mean (higher than current price) than establishing a lower low under $7,700. Olszewicz added that Bitcoin is trying to form an inverse head and shoulders/diamond bottoming pattern on its 12-hour chart.With this in mind, Olszewicz said that Bitcoin could feasibly rally by 10% from current levels to hit $9,300 in the coming days and weeks.
This isn’t the only evidence that BTC’s price may be ready to head higher once again. Analyst CL argued that Bitcoin ball is in the court of the bulls, noting that BTC is trading above its monthly time-weighted average price while funding is widely negative (a bullish sign) and this market has established higher lows.
Why Is the Bitcoin Price Still Suffering?
Bitcoin’s gains are short lived, and the world’s number one cryptocurrency is now trading where it was during late September when Bakkt initially failed to make a solid impression on crypto traders.
Bitcoin and Its Comrades Are Suffering
As it would seems, positive blockchain comments from Chinese president Xi Jinping and Bakkt ultimately picking up and attracting several bitcoin futures contracts trades weren’t enough to keep bitcoin where it was. The $9,000 proved difficult for the currency to maintain, and resistance levels appear are inherently winning.
But it’s not just bitcoin that suffers. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, is down to $175 at press time. Just yesterday the currency was trading for $180, and Ethereum seems to be experiencing more losses than even BTC, but bitcoin cash – the little “brother” of everyone’s favorite digital coin – has incurred some of the highest losses to date. At the time of writing, it is trading for just over $236 when bitcoin cash, just weeks ago, was trading for $300 even.
The currency has thus lost nearly $70 in a relatively short period of time, and Ripple’s XRP – the world’s third-largest cryptocurrency – is trading at 25 cents, meaning it’s lost more than five cents since reaching its late October trading figure of $0.30.
The strange thing is that there doesn’t seem to be any real reason for the drops. Crypto continues to make headway in developing nations, where it is largely used as a means of paying for goods and services. In addition, regions such as Switzerland – as covered yesterday by Live Bitcoin News – are replacing many of their traditional financial services and institutions with those of blockchain and crypto.
With so much being done to cement crypto’s place in the financial world, why aren’t prices higher? What are we doing wrong?
One explanation is that this could just be a case of “end-of-year” blues for most forms of crypto. As we likely recall, the final months of 2018 saw bitcoin trading at a serious low. Roughly $3,500, which was about 70 percent lower than where it had ended 2017. One holiday season proved bitcoin good, worthy of numerous gifts and praise, while another proved it naughty and dropped hunks of “digital coal” in users’ stockings.
Some New Projects Aren’t Hitting the Right Mark
At the same time, there are serious projects out there that ultimately serve against the morals and properties of standard crypto. China’s plans for a state-backed cryptocurrency, for example, go against BTC’s decentralized and independent nature, while companies like Google are looking into developing new checking account systems that undermine the stamina and protocol of enterprises like cryptocurrency exchanges.
Bitcoin is being hit from all sides, so while it’s retaining its reputation and moving up the financial ladder, it seems its price is not quite strong enough to undertake further bullying.
On February 1st 2028, Bitcoin Will Hit $1m… Allegedly
- It’s estimated that BTC could hit $1 million on precisely February 1st, 2028.
- The million-dollar target comes from Timothy Peterson’s ‘Never Look Back’ analysis.
There have been multiple analysts that have predicted bitcoin to reach a million dollars. However, a few have gone a far as to predict a specific date.
By looking into the history books, we can see the bitcoin price action over the years and how it’s changed over time. It’s estimated that BTC could hit $1 million on precisely February 1st, 2028.
The million-dollar target comes from Timothy Peterson’s ‘Never Look Back’ analysis.
He explains that bitcoin is keeping up its ever-growing ‘Never Look Back’ price. So in laymen terms, this is a price floor that is never crossed as adoption increases.
$1 million bitcoin
When the ‘Never Look Back’ price was plotted on a logarithmic scale, a strong trend emerged over bitcoin’s decade-long history. Specifically, if we take it back to high school, the chart shows a long line of positive correlation.
“Bitcoin has a relatively unnoticed and — for most — unknown characteristic. I call it the “Never Look Back Price.” The NLB price is the last time bitcoin was at a particular price level. Once it reached that price, it only proceeded up, it never retraced to that value again.”
Peterson’s ‘never look back’ price represents the primary adoption of bitcoin. It represents the “hodlers of last resort.”
People have got on the bitcoin bandwagon and hold it for the significant long term. This is why it won’t drop back below a specific level.
“This group’s behavior is not just long-term focused, it is infinite-term focused. These people are the bitcoin adopters. This group provides a floor value for bitcoin’s price.”
Bitcoin Visits Critical Long-Term Trendline; Break Below Could Lead to Massive Losses
Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to consolidate around its key near-term support at $8,000 and both its bulls and bears have remained deadlocked as it fails to gain any decisive momentum in the time since its recent drop down to its current price levels.
Analysts are now noting that Bitcoin is currently trading at a key trendline that could significantly influence its near-term price action, with a break below it potentially leading to further losses.
Bitcoin Consolidates Around $8,000 as Bulls and Bears Remain in Deadlock
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down marginally at its current price of $8,150, which marks a slight climb from its daily lows of $8,000 that have been visited on multiple occasions over the past several days.
Although this price level does appear to be a strong support region for the cryptocurrency, its slow grind downwards that has ensued in the time since it lost the upwards momentum that was gained during its meteoric rally to $10,600 may point to an underlying weakness amongst the cryptocurrency’s bulls.
Analysts are noting that Bitcoin may still be able to post a decent rally so long as it is able to hold above its key near-term support level, but they are also noting that a break below this level could spark a sharp sell-off.
The Crypto Dog, a popular cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter, spoke about this in a recent tweet while referencing the chart seen below.
“$BTC at daily support. I expected a bounce before now, but not stressing (yet). Above POC – bullish. Below – re-evaluate,” he explained.
Reaction to Parabolic Trendline May Give Insight into BTC’s Future Price Action
One important factor to keep in mind is that Bitcoin is currently trading at its parabolic trendline, which could spark a massive movement in either direction, depending on whether BTC’s bulls or bears prevail in their current battle.
Mr. Anderson, another popular cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter, spoke about this in a recent tweet, telling his followers that a hold above this trendline could spark an “explosive” movement, whereas a dip below could send BTC reeling significantly lower.
“$BTC: back for a retest of the previous parabolic trend line. As discussed over a month ago… A weekly break of this diagonal will likely bring on a new “playground” for PA. Whereas as a hold can lead to explosive behavior and continuation within this level,” he explained while pointing to the below chart.
The coming few hours and days will likely determine where Bitcoin trends for the coming weeks and months as 2019 draws to a close.