The Chinese Ministry of Industry has recently released rankings for 14 of its cryptocurrency projects. In it, EOS topped the list, followed by TRON and Ethereum.
These positive news come at a very interesting time for cryptocurrencies. Ethereum, in particular, is readying for the release of Ethereum 2.0, a proposed hard fork, that BeInCrypto has previously reported on. In a recent poll, however, when the co-founder asked the question of “would it ever be appropriate to conduct a hard fork to revert chain activity after a serious hack”, the response was a resounding “No”, with 63% of voters disagreeing with a hard fork under any circumstances.
Ethereum experienced a hard fork in 2016 after a DAO hack, which caused it to split into two chains, giving birth to Ethereum Classic (ETC).
Both ETC and ETH, however, have been steadily increasing in 2019.
For the future, some interesting predictions were given by William Mougayar (@wmougayar), a well-known author and investor.
Since ETH, ETC, and EOS have recently made headlines, let’s look at the predictions for all three and decide how likely they are to be validated.
Looking at the Ethereum chart, an increase of roughly 450% from the current price would be required for a target of $1000 to be hit.
This movement would be similar to that of September-January 2017 when the price increased from $250 to $1400.
However, that upward move transpired over 112 days, while there are only 59 days left until January 1st.
Therefore, an increase at around twice the pace of that in 2017 would have to occur for the prediction to be validated.
A broad outline of the price movement would be that the current 2019 movement was the first wave of a five-wave Elliott formation.
The second wave ended with the $153 low on September 24 and the third wave began afterward. This, however, means that the third wave should be about two times quicker than the first one, moving above the $800 resistance area without trouble.
In my opinion, a more natural movement would be for the third wave to transpire at a slower rate, thus reaching the target sometime after the new year.
A closer look at the price movement suggests that this upward move will eventually occur.
There is bullish divergence developing in both the RSI and MACD.
Also, the price created a double bottom near $160, which is a bullish reversal pattern.
For the prediction of $50 to be hit an increase of roughly 940% in 59 days would be required.
Looking at the previous price movement, one such increase occurred between March/May 2017, when the price went from $1.8 to $23 in a span of 66 days.
The price is currently approaching the end of a descending wedge, combined with a bullish divergence in both the RSI and the MACD.
Therefore, while a breakout is likely, the $50 target seems overly optimistic. Additionally, it would represent an all-time high, slightly higher than the current one of $47, reached on January 14, 2018.
For the prediction of $7 to be hit, an increase of 110% would be required. Unlike the previous two coins, this would only represent a retracement relative to the June high, which in the case of EOS was $8.55.
Also, the $7 target falls right at a previous resistance area, the 0.786 fib level of the entire drop.
Looking closer at the price movement, there is a bullish divergence developing in the RSI & MACD.
If it is sufficient in causing the price to break out above the descending resistance line, the $7 prediction is likely to be validated.
Ranking the predictions on how likely they are to be hit, EOS is first, followed by ETC and ETH. While based solely on the current price movement, neither ETH nor ETC seem to be likely to validate the predictions. However, in the case of ETC, we have precedent on a rapid movement that would support the prediction, while on the case of ETH we do not.
Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast and analysis on February 22, 2020
Cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH/USD) is trading at 263. Cryptocurrency quotes are trading below the moving average with a period of 55. This indicates a bullish trend on Ethereum. At the moment, cryptocurrency quotes are moving near the middle border of the Bollinger Bands indicator stripes.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast and analysis on February 22, 2020
As part of the Ethereum forecast, a test of level 259 is expected. Where can we expect an attempt to continue the growth of ETH/USD and the further development of an upward trend. The purpose of this movement is the area near the level of 298. The conservative buying area Ethereum is located near the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator strip at 248.
Cancellation of the option to continue the growth of the Ethereum rate will be a breakdown of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator stripes. As well as a moving average with a period of 55 and closing of quotations of the pair below the area of 240. This will indicate a change in the current trend in favor of the bearish for ETH/USD. In case of breakdown of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator bands, we should expect an acceleration in the fall of cryptocurrency.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast and analysis on February 22, 2020 implies a test level of 259. Further growth is expected to continue to the area above level 298. The conservative buying area is located near area 248. The breakdown of the growth option for cryptocurrency will be a breakdown of the level of 240. In this case, we should expect further fall.
Ethereum (ETH) Holds Its Ground But Threats Loom Over
Ethereum (ETH) has been holding its ground firmly above the trend line support but there is still the risk of a decline below the ascending triangle considering we now have a bearish divergence on the RSI as we can see on the 4H chart for ETH/USD. This is not a favorable development and could mean that Ethereum (ETH) might see once last decline down to the 38.2% fib level below $240 before the next move up. That would happen only if we see the trend line support break which has not happened so far but the bulls seem to be losing momentum.
The cryptocurrency market is ready to rally further after the recent correction but we still cannot discount the possibility of a decline down to the 200-moving average in BTC/USD which means that such a decline would drag ETH/USD down to the 38.2% fib level. For the market makers and the whales, the big players that control this market, they have to keep the balance between completing the correction and not spooking the horse. The last thing they want to do is shatter the halving dream just yet. They want the market to rally higher before halving and they are going to ensure that it happens. One thing that is important to note that the manner in which the market crashed recently could definitely happen again which is why it is important to understand the risks and manage them accordingly.
The bearish divergence that we saw on ETH/USD can also be seen on ETH/BTC. Ethereum (ETH) rallied aggressively against Bitcoin (BTC) but it seems to have run out of steam to surge on. If it declines below the trend line support, we could be looking at a sharp decline to the 38.2% fib level. However, it is important to realize that a move like that would seriously hurt the bullish resolve, but it can still happen.
In case ETH/BTC declines down to the 38.2% fib level, we would want to see it find support there and begin an uptrend instead of falling further down to the 61.8%. The market seems to have lost the bullish momentum after the recent crash but we could still see a pump or two and then everyone would try to FOMO into the market once again. So, it is important to be mindful of all eventualities. If ETH/BTC does not fall below the trend line support, then it could shape up to be a major ascending triangle which would then lead to a major breakout in the days and weeks to come.
Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD is subject to an explosive breakout
- Ethereum price is trading in the red by 1.70% in the session on Friday.
- ETH/USD price action is very much consolidating following a double top being hit at $288.
- The bears are trying to regather momentum, running at two sessions in the red.
ETH/USD weekly chart
The price is stuck within a key range, $290-240, heading for a potentially negative weekly close, which if being the case could be a signal of a change in trend.
ETH/USD daily chart
The price is narrowing, buying momentum would likely be seen upon a breakout to the upside of the top at $288, to the downside, bearish momentum would likely be seen upon a breakout of the double top formation neckline at $240-38 region.
Spot rate: 265.83
Relative change: +3.15%