- Macroeconomic factors may bode ill for the first cryptocurrency.
- BTC/USD has come close to the critical support level.
The cryptocurrency market is range-bound with a bearish bias as Bitcoin and most of the major altcoins are nursing day-to-day losses from 1% to 5%. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has not edged lower to $249 billion from $251 billion the day before; an average daily trading volume decreased from $79 billion to $77 billion, while bitcoin’s market share stayed at 66.9%.
Read also: Cryptocurrency market update: Where is this Directionless Bitcoin trading going?
The cryptocurrency market is usually insensitive to fundamental developments; however, the risk-on sentiments caused by a detente in the U.S.-China trade war and improved global macroeconomic profile may eventually influence the sentiments on digital assets market.
Gold, Treasuries, JPY and other save-haven assets go down amid growing interest to high-yielding assets. While bitcoin has no clear correlation with other asset classes, it is often regarded as a defence asset, which makes it vulnerable to further losses.
Antony Pompliano adds Bitcoin in the US-China trade war equation
US-China trade war makes Bitcoin more attractive
Looking technically, BTC/USD movements have been limited by a tight range amid decreased volatility. It is a risky situation for bitcoin as bulls are not motivated enough to push the price to higher and may lose the initiative to bears.
“Recent price action has choppy, quiet and sideways. This “collapse involatility” suggests a much bigger price move is right over the horizon—maybe yet this week. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid this pause,” according to Jim Wyckoff from Kitco news.
At the time of writing, BTC/USD is changing hands at at $9,185. The price is testing SMA200 (Simple Moving Average) daily that served as a strong support area for the coin since the end of October. Once it is out of the way, the sell-off is likely to gain traction with the next focus on $8,635 (SMA50 daily). On the upside, we will need to see a sustainable move above $9,574 to improve the technical picture.
BTC/USD, the daily chart
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What’s Next For Bitcoin’s Price? Analyst Who Predicted 35% Crash Says This
Earlier this year, in late-September, prominent Bitcoin analyst Filb Filb posted this chart below, showing that he expects for BTC to jump by dozens of percent to near $10,000, then collapse by 35% to the low-$6,000s to interact with the “miners bottom range.”
While some laughed this off as pure bearish sentiment at the time, Filb Filb’s prediction was proven to be nearly 100% accurate, with Bitcoin surging past $10,000 in a temporary vertical relief rally, then crashing the mid-$6,000s just earlier this month.
He managed to predict Bitcoin’s trajectory months in advance, something quite difficult for any trader due this market’s volatility.
The same analyst is back again, issuing his latest forecast for the leading cryptocurrency.
Related Reading: Ethereum’s Price is “Convincingly Bearish”: Here’s What Comes After 20% Week
Bitcoin to Hit $9,555 Soon
Filb Filb recently noted that Bitcoin is preparing to make a raid on the previous resistance level of $9,555, noting that this is where the price of the cryptocurrency topped in October and early-November in the wake of the now-infamous 40% “China pump.”
BTC reaching this level, which would satisfy textbook market trends of assets visiting support and resistance levels multiple times before establishing a direction, would require it to rally by 7% from the current price of $8,850.
Not the Only Bull
Filb Filb isn’t the only prominent analyst who is bullish on Bitcoin.
Aside from Filb Filb, there are few traders that have been as accurate on
Related Reading: Research Firm: 3 Use Cases Could Send Bitcoin To $1 Trillion
Dave recently issued his next prediction, saying that BTC is preparing to break higher than it already has, drawing attention to the below chart which shows BTC is trading in a clear uptrend. Per his analysis, the cryptocurrency’s price will likely surge another 32 percent to $11,500 by the middle of February—just four weeks away.
Backing this prediction, Dave looked to a confluence of factors:
- Bitcoin recently broke above a descending channel that has constrained price action for more than six months, marking a large win for bulls.
- BTC rallying to $11,500 would satisfy a historical chart pattern.
- The weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is starting to trend higher once again, which was a signal seen in 2015/2016 as BTC moved from a bear market to bull.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Signal That Preceded 4,000% Rally Forms Again, and It’s Huge for BTC
Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD failure to break $9,000 resistance could open the Pandora box
- Bitcoin Friday’s recovery stalls at $9,000, allowing for correction.
- Bitcoin buyers must defend the short term support at $8,800 in order to avoid further dips to $8,500.
Following an event-filled week, Bitcoin alongside other digital assets is in a correction. On Friday, Bitcoin resurfaced above $8,900, further cementing the bulls’ position on the market. They pulled the price higher, where Bitcoin came into contact with the $9,000 psychological level. However, the momentum lost steam allowing the bears to make an entrance pushing Bitcoin below the short term support at $8,900.
At the time of writing,
The long term picture hints hard times ahead for Bitcoin, especially with the formation of a rising wedge pattern. If the pattern’s support fails to hold, energized reversal could push Bitcoin back into the $7,000 range. For now, the best the buyers can do is to sustain the price above $8,800 and ensure they don’t lose focus of the resistance at $9,000.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart
Bitcoin volume, volatility finally find momentum after December lows
Bitcoin is remembering to be volatile again!
The real trading volume for Bitcoin is back up to its November 2019 levels after its price broke out of the lows seen during the holiday season. Thanks, in good measure, to the volatile few weeks the cryptocurrency is having.
According to the latest report by Arcane Research, Bitcoin, earlier this week, recorded its highest 7-day average trading volume for the past 3 months. The average trading volume for the past week was in the range of $800 million – $900 million, a significant high considering the fact that December’s trading volume went below $500 million due to Bitcoin’s relatively stable price.
Source: Bitcoin Real Volume, Arcane Research
On 14 January, Tuesday, as Bitcoin began the day with a 4 percent pump in under two hours, breaking $8,500 for the first time since mid-November, the real trading volume notched an unprecedented $1.7 billion.
Here, it should be noted that the report measures real trading volume, according to Bitwise real 10. In March 2019, Bitwise Asset Management had released a report where it categorized 10 exchanges that reported “real volume.” The exchanges were Binance, Coinbase, Gemini, Poloniex, Bittrex, Bitstamp,
When volume spurts, volatility is not far behind.
Source: Bitcoin 30-day Volatility, Arcane Research
Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility is back up to November levels, according to the report. Now hovering at around 3.5 percent, the volatility has been steadily increasing since the beginning of the month.
After Bitcoin’s massive 10 percent single-day gain on 19 December, a surge that took it from $6,600 to over $7,200, the volatility had been in a slump. During the Christmas-New Year period, Bitcoin’s price was locked in and stayed around $7,500, pulling the volatility to as low as 2 percent.
Both volume and volatility have now turned around, making massive gains as the price continues to test the $9,000 ceiling. The Bitcoin market is, however, fickle and sensitive to various elements. For instance, Bitcoin’s biggest daily gain of 2019 came a day after it entered its Death Cross, a trading term meant to signal a bearish period. Hence, this increase in volatility and volume should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Arcane is not quite pessimistic. The report stated that “this time is different,” adding that the increasing volume and volatility are collectively an “upwards trend.”