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Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast and analysis on December 3, 2019

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Cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH/USD) is trading at 150. Cryptocurrency quotes are trading below the moving average with a period of 55. This indicates the presence of a bearish trend on Ethereum. At the moment, cryptocurrency quotes are moving near the middle border of the Bollinger Bands indicator stripes.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast and analysis on December 3, 2019

As part of the Ethereum forecast, a test of level 153 is expected. Where can we expect an attempt to continue the fall of ETH/USD and the further development of the downward trend. The purpose of this movement is the area near the level of 137. The conservative area for sales of Ethereum is located near the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator strip at 157.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast and analysis on December 3, 2019

Cancellation of the option to continue the decline in the Ethereum rate will be a breakdown of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator stripes. As well as a moving average with a period of 55 and closing of quotations of the pair above the area of ​​165. This will indicate a change in the current trend in favor of the bullish for ETH/USD. In case of breakdown of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator bands, we should expect an acceleration in the fall of cryptocurrency.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast and analysis on December 3, 2019 implies a test level of 153. Further, it is expected to continue falling to the area below the level of 137. The conservative area for selling Ethereum is located area of 157. Canceling the option of falling cryptocurrency will be a breakdown of the level of 165. In this case, we can expect continuation growth.

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Ethereum

Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Is At Major Crossroads

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  • Ethereum price is facing a significant resistance near $152 and $158 against the US Dollar.
  • ETH price is currently trading just above the $145 and $143 support levels.
  • There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near $151 on the 4-hours chart (data feed from Coinbase).
  • The price could start a strong upward move once it breaks $151 and $152.

Ethereum price is trading in a contracting range against the US Dollar. ETH/USD needs to gain strength above $152 to start a solid upward move in the coming days.

Ethereum Price Analysis

After a fresh decline, Ethereum price found support near the $143 level against the US Dollar. ETH traded as low as $143.21 and later corrected above the $150 level and the 55 simple moving average (4-hours).

Besides, there was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $158 swing high to $143 swing low. However, the price struggled to clear the $152 resistance area.

The bulls made two attempts to clear the $152 resistance area, but it failed to gain strength. Moreover, the price failed to settle above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $158 swing high to $143 swing low.

At the outset, there is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near $151 on the 4-hours chart. On the upside, Ethereum price seems to be facing a lot of hurdles near the $150, $151 and $152 levels.

If there is a clear break above the $152 resistance, the price could continue to rise towards the $158 level. The next major resistance is near the $162 zone.

An intermediate resistance is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $158 swing high to $143 swing low. On the downside, there are key supports near $145, $143 and $142.

Therefore, a daily close below the $142 support area might put a lot of pressure on the bulls. In the mentioned case, the price is likely to accelerate lower below $140 and $136. The next major support area is near the $132 level.

Ethereum Price

Ethereum Price

Looking at the chart, Ethereum price is clearly facing a strong resistance near the $151 and $152 levels. In the short term, there could be ranging moves, but the price is likely to make the next big move either towards $165 or $132.

Technical indicators

4 hours MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is currently in the bearish zone.

4 hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 level, with a bearish angle.

Key Support Levels – $143, followed by the $138 zone.

Key Resistance Levels – $152 and $158.

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Ethereum price analysis: Istanbul euphoria already over?

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  • The Istanbul fork happened on December 8 at block number 9,069,000.
  • Users of the Parity Ethereum client faced a major issue as they were told to install an emergency patch to upgrade to the fork.
  • The bears have knocked back all the gains that the bulls made post-fork.

Ethereum recently did the much-hyped Byzantium hardfork this Sunday, December 8. The fork happened at block number 9,069,000. Hard forks like these are integral to Ethereum’s development. Since the project is so vast, the developers had earlier decided to launch Ethereum is four stages – Frontier, Homestead, Metropolis and Serenity. The Metropolis hardfork was further subdivided into Byzantium and Constantinople. The Ethereum Foundation decided to do an extra fork called “Istanbul” prior to the Serenity update. The Istanbul hard fork itself will have two parts to it, with the second part of the fork coming around the first quarter of 2020. 

What will Istanbul do?

The main objective of the Istanbul hardfork is to include more security fixes and incentives to move away from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake algorithm. The first part of the Istanbul hard fork will include six Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), labeled 152, 1108, 1344, 1844, 2028 and 2200. EIP 1344 will make the system resilient against Denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. EIPs 1108, 2028, 220 will help reduce overall gas costs, while EIP 152 will increase Ethereum’s interoperability with equihash-based proof-of-work (PoW) cryptocurrencies such as Zcash.

What’s the aftermath of Istanbul?

Following the hard fork, the price of ETH/USD went up from $147.65 to $151 this Sunday. However, since then, the price has dropped back down to $147.50 as the bears have made a resounding comeback. The hashrate has also dropped from 172.741 Thash/s, which is the lowest since July 2019. This is particularly worrying because, in a proof-of-work system like Ethereum, the speed and security of the network are directly proportional to its hashrate. 

Also, Parity, one of the most important Ethereum clients, announced that their users would need to apply an emergency patch before upgrading to the fork. 23% of Ethereum’s network runs using Parity. As such, not only did this delay the upgrade, but it could have also potentially caused a chain split.

Twitter Reactions

George Cao, CEO at BitMax.io:

ETHEREUM COMPLETED ISTANBUL HARD FORK. CONGRATULATIONS @VITALIKBUTERIN AND @ETHEREUM ! BITMAX ANNOUNCED SUPPORT FOR THE UPGRADE ON DEC. 6, AND WE ARE HAPPY TO SEE THE HARD FORK HAS SEEN WIDESPREAD ADOPTION BY THE COMMUNITY.

Kobi Gurkan:

WITH #ETHEREUM ISTANBUL NOW ACTIVATED, VERIFYING PROOFS IS MUCH CHEAPER. A GROTH16 PROOF VERIFICATION COSTS ABOUT 200K GAS (AND THEN 8K PER INPUT) AND PLONK SHOULD BE SIMILAR!

Jeremy Allaire, CEO of Circle:

WITH THE ETHEREUM ISTANBUL HF, ZK ROLLUPS NOW POSSIBLE AND WILL ALLOW LAYER 2 SCALING ON ETHEREUM SUPPORTING UPWARDS OF 3000TPS (LARGER THAN VISA), WHILE MAINTAINING DECENTRALIZATION AND PRIVACY. THIS IS A BIG WIN FOR ETH-BASED STABLECOINS #USDC

ETH/USD daily chart

fxsoriginal

ETH/USD is trending inside a triangle formation and is floating below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA 200), SMA 50 and SMA 20 curves. The SMA 20 curve acts as immediate market resistance. The bears have taken the price back down to $147.50 from $151. The Elliott Oscillator has had five straight green sessions. The bulls will need to defend the $146 support level.

ETH/USD four-hour chart

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The four-hour ETH/USD chart is trending within the green Ichimoku cloud in a downward channel formation. The market has found resistance at the SMA 20 and SMA 50 curves. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates decreasing market momentum. 

ETH/USD hourly chart

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The hourly ETH/USD market has found support at the lower 20-day Bollinger band and the $147.15 line and bounced up. After that, it encountered resistance at the $147.75 line and then settled around the $147.50 zone. The SMA 200, SMA 50 and SMA 20 curves are floating above the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is trending around 40.60.

Key Levels

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Developer Flags Big-Money Loophole for Stealing All the ETH in MakerDAO

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What if there were a way to empty all the ETH held by the Maker protocol?

That’s $300 million worth of crypto right now. That’s a lot of money. Even if doing it caused the price to drop in half or even by two-thirds, it could still be well worth the attempt.

Micah Zoltu, an independent software developer who is also one of the co-authors of the original white paper for the decentralized prediction market Augur, published a blog post on Monday describing an attack on MakerDAO that, he argued, could empty all the ETH from the system. (Users lock ETH into the Maker protocol to generate loans of the dollar-pegged DAI stablecoin.)

The problem, Zoltu writes, is in how Maker is governed: “Some group of plutocrats can control how the system behaves.”

The attack would only be feasible for a few MKR whales if they wanted to act quickly. Zoltu said that 40,000 MKR would be enough if the attack had some sophistication. As of this writing, 48,400 MKR, based on the staking approach of the Maker voting system, could do it right away.

So somewhere between $20 million and $25 million in crypto would need to be deployed to do it. That’s assuming a person could accumulate MKR in a way that didn’t drive up the price, which is unlikely.

“It is worth noting that Maker Foundation could attack the system in this way right now if they wanted,” Zoltu writes. “What is worse, [venture capital firm] a16z has enough MKR on hand right now to execute the attack the patient way!”

Aside from an inside job by the parties most invested in seeing ethereum’s flagship decentralized finance (DeFi) application survive, accumulating enough MKR to carry out the attack may be a significant hurdle.

“I feel like it’d at least double the price,” Joey Krug, a partner at Pantera Capital who has been briefed on the vulnerability, said. “You could probably get a lot of whales to sell to you OTC [over-the-counter] if you were paying double market.”

On the open market, the price would “go bonkers, multiples of what it is now,” Krug said.

That’s only if the attacker had to start from zero MKR, though. So first let’s get into the attack that Zoltu describes and then circle back to the Foundation’s objections.

How it works

The Maker protocol is governed by the MKR token.

One million MKR has been minted, a sliver of that has been burned. The Maker Foundation still controls several hundred thousand, both in its treasury and in smart contracts that hold them in escrow.

One MKR sells for about $510 as of this writing. Daily turnover is quite variable but lately, there’s been about $4 million to $10 million in MKR turning over daily.

Anyone who holds MKR can put up a proposal as a smart contract on the protocol, one that can change any number of parameters. Maker uses continuous governance so that provisions can be voted to change at any time.

This is especially important right now because the system just made a major upgrade, implementing multi-collateral DAI and the DAI savings rate. This new upgrade is a whole new version of the protocol, such that there are really two kinds of DAI now and users are being asked to convert their old DAI (now called SAI) to the new.

The new system institutes some important security changes, such as a delay on how long it takes for changes voted through to go into effect and an emergency shutdown provision.

The biggest weakness allowing Zoltu’s attack is the fact that the current parameter for governance delay is zero seconds. That is, any governance provision that gets voted through goes into effect immediately.

This is something Wouter Kampmann, head of engineering at the Maker Foundation, said has been discussed in detail by the MakerDAO community, which has decided it is better to have zero delay for now while it determines which kinds of changes should be able to bypass the delay and which ones should still have a delay.

“It’s really a matter of finding that sweet spot there,” Kampmann said.

As long as it’s in place, though, Zoltu argues, the funds locked in MakerDAO are “not safu.”

In a call with CoinDesk, Kampmann said it would not be as simple as saying that all the ETH currently held as collateral by MakerDAO could just be directly moved to a wallet controlled by the attacker.

“The way permissionless, unstoppable code works is that there is certain business logic that determines the rules of how to interact with the contract – and these rules are unchangeable,” Kampmann said.

Zoltu admits it would take cleverness and planning, but at this point, readers who remember the DAO hack may be experiencing familiar chills. Your threat tolerance may vary.

The attack described by Zoltu would also need to be fairly fast. Kampmann expects that the governance delay may well be increased sometime in the first quarter, possibly in January.

Though it’s important to note that this decision is not up to him or foundation staff.

On the other hand

“You cannot just ignore the economics of it,” Kampmann said. “The problem with the model that’s set forth is really in the incentive model.”

There are a small number of whales that have enough MKR to execute this attack now, but they are extremely unlikely to do so. It would send shockwaves across ethereum and likely if they hold that much MKR, they would lose more in other assets than they would gain in stealing the ETH (which would likely drop in value too).

The best thing MKR holders who care about securing the protocol can do, according to Kampmann, is stake their MKR on votes. The more that’s staked, the more expensive this attack will be, and there is a lot of MKR on the sidelines right now.

Krug, who is well acquainted with the crypto investor class, acknowledged that MKR whales are probably well-intentioned, but he also said, “We can’t assume it for sure.”

There are over 16,000 ETH addresses with some MKR, however. If a bunch of minor whales were able to collude without warning the MakerDAO community, they might be able to assemble enough tokens without causing price movements.

The Maker Foundation said this would be very unlikely based on what’s known about MKR liquidity. That is, MKR just doesn’t move around that much. 

But Zoltu insists this is not safe enough. He said, “They [the Maker Foundation] are operating under the assumption that there are no dark pools of liquidity available to attackers. This is, kind of by definition, something one cannot know.”


source:coindesk

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