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Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP: Bears take over and draw a bloody moon

  • Despite appearances, Bitcoin is the asset with the best risk/benefit ratio.
  • The current falls are adjusted to the ranges of the previous rise.
  • Downward momentum expires in the first half of February.

Cryptographer and computer scientist Nick Szabo, has presented in his Twitter account a study on the “risk-benefit” ratio of different assets. The study used a Sharpe Ratio over four years Hodl period.

According to this study, Bitcoin is the best positioned, maintaining an average ratio of 3 in the last four years. Behind them are the US stocks, with an average ratio of 2, and gold, which has gone from the last positions in 2016 to the third in the 2020 ratio.

The worst placed asset category is emerging currencies, which with an average ratio of -2 lags far behind the others.

The crypto board reaches the end of the week with the bears securing the market control they gained yesterday in mid-session.

The structure of the moving averages already indicated that the upward turning process that began on January 10th was going to be quite time-consuming. The magnitude of the downward movements in the second half of 2019 had separated the moving averages a lot. 

ETH/BTC 4-Hours Chart

ETH/BTC is trading at the price level of 0.01895 and is down by -1.65%. On the 4-hour chart, the spot price is piercing the EMA50. If Ethereum loses this support, the drop will accelerate to the 0.0185 level.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at 0.0197, then the second at 0.0200 and the third one at 0.0205.

Below the current price, the first support level is at 0.0185, then the second at 0.0185 and the third one at 0.0182.

The MACD on the 4-hour chart is supported directly by the indicator’s zero levels. The moving averages are sloping downward and are moving away from it, suggesting an acceleration of the trend. 

The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows the bearish-bought pair in equilibrium. Both sides of the market are above the ADX line, a setup that facilitates violent resolutions.

BTC/USD 4-Hours Chart

BTC/USD is currently trading at $8243 and confirms the loss of support at $8400. The EMA50 and SMA100 averages continue to fall and forecast that the end of the downtrend could be on the first week of February.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $8400, then the second at $8500 and the third one at $8800.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $8200, then the second at $8000 and the third one at $7900.

The MACD on the 4-hour chart is losing its downward slope, indicating the end of the impulse phase of the movement. The terminal phase can easily take the price below $8000.

The DMI on the 4-hour chart confirms the end of the bearish momentum phase. Bears are preparing to drill down the ADX line. The bulls are very reactive to any upward movement and break the downward trend.

ETH/USD 4-Hours Chart

ETH/USD is currently trading at $156.09 after finding support at the SMA100. The support point coincides with the 38.2% level of the Fibonacci retracement system and the same system indicates that the 50% level at $150 is very likely to be visited.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $161, then the second at $165 and the third at $170.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $155, then the second at $150 and the third one at $143 (61.8% level of the Fibonacci retracement system).

The MACD on the 4-hour chart is increasing its openness and is tilting further down, so we can expect an acceleration of the price’s decline.

The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows that the bearish trend is increasing. The bulls are not reacting and continue to lose strength.

XRP/USD 4-Hours Chart

XRP/USD is currently trading at $0.215 and accelerating the downward movement that began this week. The current price coincides with the 50% level of the Fibonacci retracement system. The next support, according to this tool, is at the 0.205 price level, 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement system.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $0.218, then the second at $0.223 and the third one at $0.235.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $0.205, then the second at $0.20 and the third one at $0.19.

The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows an acceleration of the downward movement. The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows an acceleration of the downward movement.

The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows that the bearish trend is increasing and the bearish momentum is strong. The bulls are not reacting and continue to lose momentum.

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Bitcoin Plunges to $9,500, $45m BCH SIM Swap, IRS Focused on Cryptocurrency

Another week, another round of Crypto Tidbits. Wow, the past seven days have been quite the trip for Bitcoin, to say the least. After peaking at $10,500 last week, the price of the leading cryptocurrency plunged to $9,700, bounced to $10,300, then took a few hours to crash from that level to $9,250, liquidating hundreds of millions worth of leveraged positions in the process.

The weekly data has echoed Bitcoin’s questionable performance. Per data from Coin360, BTC is down 2.6% in the past week. Altcoins, however, (save for Ethereum and Litecoin and a few other projects) have fared even worse: for instance, the two leading Bitcoin forks are down over 10% apiece and XRP has shed 10%.

Aside from the tumultuous market, the underlying cryptocurrency industry saw a relatively productive week, with there being a number of news stories showing the growth and adoption of these technologies, though others casting light on issues in crypto.

Related Reading: Crypto Tidbits: Bitcoin Slides Under $10,000, JP Morgan & Ethereum, and the US’ Cryptocurrency Crackdown

Bitcoin & Crypto Tidbits

  • Coronavirus May Push China to Launch Crypto, Says Ex-Banking Official: Per an article from China Daily — a newspaper owned by the Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China — Lihui Li, a former president of the Bank of China, said that the coronavirus epidemic unfolding will likely accelerate a national digital currency or national crypto. Li purportedly added that a digital currency from the PBOC is likely to benefit retail businesses by decreasing costs and increasing the efficiency of transactions. This was echoed by Fan Yifei, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China. He said at a news conference held on Saturday that the central bank is going to accelerate its work in the mobile payment field. Bitcoin was not mentioned by these authorities.
  • Bitcoin Fixes This: Danish Bank Introduces Negative Interest Rate: Bitwise’s Hunter Horsley recently shared the below image, showing that clients of Danish investment bank Saxo Bank will soon be subject to negative interest rates. All clients holding cash in EUR, CHF, or DKK will be subject to an annual rate of 0% to -3%. This means that if you’re in the worst bracket of -3%, a $10,000 deposit will see you lose $300. Saxo Bank, backing this decision, cited the European Central Bank’s decision to lower its policy deposit rate to -0.5% to stimulate the economy. Many see Bitcoin as an alternative to cash accounts because some suggest it has store-of-value properties, offering no yield but being a disinflationary asset whose value is mainly derived from scarcity.
  • Coinbase Becomes Visa Principal Member: Announced in a blog post published Wednesday, Coinbase has become the ” first pure-play crypto company to be approved as a Visa principal member.” This means that moving forward, Coinbase’s crypto-enabled cards will involve better customer experience, “making it easier to spend cryptocurrency in everyday situations.”
  • Mining Startup Begins Massive Bitcoin Operation In Texas: In a press statement shared with industry outlet The Block, Layer1 revealed that it has officially launched its Bitcoin mining operation in Texas, purportedly bringing online several containers that have a 2.5-megawatt capacity each. The exact extent of the farm wasn’t disclosed, though the statement mentioned that Layer1 is likely to control 2% of the entire Bitcoin network’s hash rate in the coming months. By the end of 2021, Layer1 wants to control 30% of all of Bitcoin’s hash rate through the Texas site and others they have control over.
  • IRS Ramps Up Crypto Efforts:  According to an IRS communique received by Bloomberg Tax, the IRS is calling upon crypto companies and executives to convene at a March 3rd summit that will discuss how the tax agency can “balance taxpayer service with regulatory enforcement.” The summit will purportedly involve at least four panels, during which information will be shared about crypto exchanges, compliance, and tax returns. This comes shortly after Steven Mnuchin, the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, said in a hearing held by the Senate Finance Committee last week that the FinCEN branch of the Treasury will soon roll out “significant new requirements” for entities working with Bitcoin and other digital assets.
  • Serenity Is Actively Being Developed, Ethereum Creator Confirms: Vitalik Buterin, the original creator of the blockchain, recently confirmed that the development of Ethereum 2.0 (or Serenity) is going on well. Buterin, during his speech at a recent event mentioned his thoughts on Ethereum 2.0, expressing optimism about the timeline for this blockchain upgrade, which will likely be the biggest upgrade or change made to any blockchain system, ever:
    [I] DEFINITELY THINK ETH2.0 HAS BEEN PROCEEDING QUITE QUICKLY AND REGULARLY IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS.A member of the team researching and developing ETH 2.0, Justin Drake, wrote in a recent Reddit “Ask me Anything” regarding Ethereum that he has “95% confidence we launch in 2020.”
  • SIM Swap Hack Sees Whale Lose $45 Million: According to a post published to the “BTC” subreddit by a user going by “Zhoujianfu,” they have just been hacked for a large sum of both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash (BCH). The addresses attached to the post, confirmed to be owned by the Reddit user through the signing of a message with a Bitcoin private key, suggest that $30 million worth of BCH (around 100,000 coins) and $15 million worth of Bitcoin (1,550 coins) were stolen.

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$39 Mln Worth of Bitcoin (BTC) Sold to One of Winning Bidders by US Marshals

The United States Marshals Service sold 3,991 Bitcoins (around $38.8 mln) to one of the two winning bidders. The other one got the remaining 50 BTC that were up for auction. 

Another batch of sold coins  

The federal law enforcement agency made an announcement about auctioning off about 40,000 confiscated coins on Feb. 1. All bidders were required to deposit $200,000 over a nine-day registration period. 

The auction took place on Feb. 18 with a total of 38 received bids. It took the US Marshals more than two days to announce the final results due to a complicated review process.  

Not the best Bitcoin holder 

The US government has auctioned off 185,230 BTC over the span of six years, gaining $151.4 mln from its sales. Casa CTO Jameson Lopp recently estimated that the US Marshals had lost around $1.7 bln by selling its holdings way too early. 

Venture capitalist Tim Draper, who was the winner of the very first auction, was ridiculed for buying 29,657 BTC in 2014, but he eventually got the last laugh.  

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Irish drug dealer loses $60 million in bitcoin

An Irish drug dealer learned the hard way what every bitcoin investor knows: never lose your codes.

Clifton Collins, a former security guard and a beekeeper turned weed grower/dealer, lost $60 million when his landlord cleaned out the house he’d been renting and sent everything to the dump — including Collin’s fishing rod case that hid his Bitcoin codes. Without the codes, the accounts can’t be accessed.

According to the Irish Times, “Collins bought most of the Bitcoin in late 2011 and early 2012 using cash he made growing crops of cannabis. In early 2017 he had just over 6,000 Bitcoin in one account but he feared it may be too easy for a hacker to access. He decided to spread his wealth across 12 new accounts … then printed out the codes for the 12 accounts onto a piece of paper. He hid the paper inside the aluminum cap of his case containing his rod which he kept at his rented home in Farnaught, Cornamona, Co Galway.

It all went south for Collins when he was arrested in 2017 for cannabis possession and sentenced to five years in prison. His house was broken into and, shortly thereafter, his landlord sent his belongings — including the fly fishing case — to the dump.

Dump employees remember seeing fishing gear — but the garbage was soon cleared and sent to either Germany and China to be incinerated.

The Criminal Assets Bureau confiscated the 12 accounts, but can not access them either, without the codes, the Irish Times Reported.

Collins has since come to terms with the loss and “considers it punishment for his own stupidity.”

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