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Bitcoin (BTC) May Be Close To The Beginning Of A Major Downtrend

Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be on the verge of a major downtrend. The daily chart for BTC/USD shows that the price has run into resistance at the key 61.8% fib retracement level and now risks a decline below the rising wedge. Bullish euphoria can be seen in the market as investors look for a rally to the moon before the upcoming halving. Meanwhile, the Coronavirus situation in China seems to be worsening as the outbreak is spreading to other parts of the world. There is a total of 64,456 cases now worldwide which have so far claimed 1,384 lives. This situation seems to be underreported by the media as videos and pictures circulating on social media forums show how it has crippled day to day activities in many parts of China. 

The reason it is so important to discuss beyond its medical implications is its economic implications. China is the largest export hub in the world and countries like the United States rely heavily on Chinese goods. From big tech giants like Apple to small companies, the Chinese market is what most have been using for more than a decade now to source products. As the situation worsens, it will become increasingly difficult for people to work. The impact has not been priced into the stock market just yet. Quantitative easing is not going to save the market this time around. The S&P 500 (SPX) and other major indices already indicate that the market is primed for a correction at this point. 

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has declined to a key support level which it is not likely to break below. A break below this support may trigger a downtrend that would only have to correspond to the beginning of an altcoin season. At this point, in light of the outlook of the stock market, the forex market as well as Bitcoin’s own outlook, we are unlikely to see a bullish reversal in the cryptocurrency market. 

Recent moves in the market have exposed the level of manipulation once again. A lot of people in this market with a vested interested would say that there is manipulation in every market. While that is certainly true, there is levels of manipulation and the kind of manipulation here is worse than that in the penny stocks market. My only concern is that as long as this is happening, most investors from traditional markets are not ready to believe that Bitcoin or other altcoins are anything more than high risk speculative investments that are predominantly controlled by a small number of miners, whales and market makers. 

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Bears Continue To Gain Momentum In Bitcoin

Bears Continue To Gain Momentum In Bitcoin – Are We About To Collapse?

  • Bitcoin saw a 6% price fall over the past week, bringing the price of the coin down to $9,613.
  • It is finding support at the short term .382 Fibonacci Retracement level, however, it certainly looks like the momentum is on the side of the bears at this moment in time.

Bitcoin has been falling ever since meeting resistance at the $10,400 level this past week. During the week, tt found support at around $9,600, however, it was unable to overcome the resistance at $10,190, causing it to drop and fall once again.

Things are now looking troublesome for Bitcoin after not being able to make any movement higher over the past few days. Despite all the latest price falls, Bitcoin remains up by a total of 11% over the past 30-days of trading.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

BTC/USD – Daily CHART – SHORT TERM

cg-btcusd-feb22
BTC/USD – DAILY – Source: TradingView

Market Overview

Taking a look at the daily chart above, we can see that Bitcoin has found support at the .382 Fib Retracement, priced at $9,569. During the week, it made a rebound and broke above the $10,000 level again, however, it was unable to break above $10,190 (previous 1.414 Fib Extension) which caused it to reverse and rollover.Advertisement

Short term prediction: BULLISH

The cryptocurrency remains bullish, however, it is very close to becoming neutral. If it drops beneath the $9,000 level, we can consider the market as neutral. It would need to drop beneath $8,200 before we could consider it to be in danger of turning bearish.

Toward the downside, if the sellers break beneath $9,569 the next level of support lies at $9,311 (.5 Fib Retracement). Beneath this, support lies at $9,159 (downside 1.272 Fib Extension), $9,053 (.618 Fib Retracement), and $9,000.

On the other hand, if the buyers rebound here and push higher, resistance lies at $9,815 and $10,000. Above this, additional resistance lies at $10,190 (1.414 Fib Extension), $10,474 (1.618 Fib Extension) and $10,500.

The RSI dipped beneath the 50 level and remained there for the longest period during 2020. If the RSI is unable to climb back above 50 pretty soon, we can expect the moment to shift and for the bears to regain control.

Key Levels

Support: $9,569, $9,311, $9,280, $9,200, $9,169, $9,053, $9,000.

Resistance: $9,637, $9,615, $9,815, $10,000, $10,190, $10,360, $10,474.

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Bitcoin News Today – Headlines for February 22

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  • Analysts and traders have long been waiting for BTC to “moon” once again
  • The $14k mark might be the key to send BTC back to the moon
  • The forthcoming halving could send BTC price to between $55k to $100k

Bitcoin News Today – Ever since the price of Bitcoin surged by more than 1,000 percent in 2017 to hit an all-time high of $20k, analysts have been waiting for the digital currency to “moon” once again. It seems like the moon – a noun-turned-verb used to describe the price of an asset surging significantly higher – is rapidly drawing near, that is if Bitcoin can break over one key hurdle point.

Bitcoin Needs to Break Over a Key Hurdle to Head to the Moon

While the largest digital currency in the world by market cap surged as high as $20k in 2017, it did not stay on that level for long. The digital currency failed to establish any semblance of support in that area. In fact, it ended the month of December around the $14k level, a decrease of 30 percent from its all-time high as the bulls failed to maintain momentum.

Recently, Delboy – a chartist – doubled down on this in a recent tweet. In the tweet, he said that the long-term chart of Bitcoin is showing signs that the $14k level might be key in sending the price of the digital currency back to the moon.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Today – BTC / USD

#NamePrice24H %
1Bitcoin(BTC)$9,713.78-0.67%

From the chart, it is obvious that once Bitcoin (BTC) surged over the monthly high of the 2013 bubble around the $1,150 mark, the bullish traction picked up quickly, taking the price of the digital currency to $20k by the end of 2017.

How High Can the Price of Bitcoin Go?

While the jury is still out on where exactly the next bull market can take the price of Bitcoin to, the consensus is a fresh all-time high of at least $50k, proven by a crazy accurate price model made by an institutional quantitative analyst. The model, which is known as a stock-to-flow model, equates to the scarcity of Bitcoin, derived from the above-ground supply divided by the rolling issuance of the digital currency, to the market cap of the asset.

It determined, to a 95 percent R squared, that after the reduction of block rewards on the Bitcoin network in May this year, the digital currency will have a fair value of anywhere between $55k to $100k. A Twitter user – GeertJancap – pointed out that according to his transfer function model of BTC’s price, the price of the digital currency will catch up to the model, created by PlanB – a pseudonymous analyst.

At press time, the world’s most dominant digital currency is struggling below the $10k level after several failed attempts to break over the $10,500 mark. Bitcoin is currently hovering around the $9,600 mark.

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Bitcoin Has a Stale Block for the First Time Since 27 January 2020

  • Bitcoin is known to be the most famous cryptocurrency with its price currently touching near $10,000.
  • According to BitMex research, it announced Bitcoin had a first stale block since January.
  • The stale blocks which are not part of the current best blockchain led to a small fork.

Bitcoin is known to be the most famous cryptocurrency with its price currently touching near $10,000 and beyond in good days. Millions of crypto-enthusiasts stalk the news about this cryptocurrency which uses peer-to-peer technology to operate with no regulations from a central authority or banks.

BitMex is a Peer-to-peer crypto-products trading platform.

According to BitMex research, it announced Bitcoin had a first stale block this morning reaching the height of 618,466 since January 27 of this year, and it was in a 19 second time gap. Stale Blocks are blocks that got successfully mined but not included on the current best blockchain, likely because some other block at a similar height who had their blockchain extended first.

A blockchain is a chain of increasing blocks contains information mainly related to finance attaching to make it a collection of records in a way which cannot be altered and every block record various transaction occurs in the blockchain. The stale blocks are newly mined and not part of the current best blockchain because it got overridden by a longer chain and the more the height of the blocks is always a good sign to the strength of the bitcoin.

The stale blocks which are not part of the current best blockchain led to a small fork. The small fork is a result of nodes when geographically closer they pick up the block that was mined near to them. The current block in bitcoin is, however, quickly accepted into the main chain.

In the blockchain, no double-spends has been observed, and the stale block contained 18 Txns excluded from the competing block.

According to the ForkMonitor

Bitcoin is at the height of 618,503
Mined by: ViaBTC
Accumulated log2(PoW): 91.692145
Latest Blocksize: 0.17MB
Latest block transaction count: 359

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