- Derivatives markets recently have shown higher interest on ETH rather than BTC, as traders seem more willing to bet on the second-largest crypto.
- Data also reveals that the current trend of ETH is more likely can sustain.
- BTC derivatives traders seem to play safe rather than being speculative.
New money getting into ETH market
The changes of open interestare vital indicators to show if there’s new money getting into the market.Data from Skew shows that the aggregated open interest of ETH futures and swaps has been increasing steadily since mid-May, the number has reached the highest level in a month. An uptrend in open interest could also suggest that the existing market trend could be gaining momentum. Therefore it is likely to continue.
In contrast, BTC futures and swap open interest on OKEx has been somewhat maintaining at the current levels. While we don’t expect a sudden drop in the BTC OI in the short-term, a downward trend seems in the making. Although a lowering OI could only be part of the picture, though,the market appears relatively reluctant to bet on BTC prices at the moment.
ETH implied volatility steadies while BTC’s decreases
Implied volatility could provide a broader picture of the markets. We see that ETH’s IV has been recovered and relatively stable after the May 20 drop, that’s where ETHUSDT failed to secure 215 levels and retreated to 206 area.
On the other hand, the IV of BTC has been relatively fluctuating recently, especially bitcoin, which was again facing strong rejection at the 10000 levels.
OKEx Technical Weekly highlighted that major cryptos like BTC and ETH have failed to break key resistance levels (BTC: 10000; ETH: 220). Given that the first and second-largest crypto were both unable to break their crucial resistance levels, what the IV can tell us is that ETH seems comparativelyfavorable or, at least, more willing to be bet on by traders. Conversely, the lowering of the BTC’s IV could imply that traders may not be still unclear about the crypto’s short-term direction.
ETH swap basis positive, BTC’s in negative
The basis is the difference between the spot price and the futures price.Again, short-term demand and supply of the product are the main factors that could move the basis. A positive basis means traders were willing to pay a premiumto buy the futures. Likewise, a negative basis means the futures have been trading at a discount, which means the futures price is lower than the spot.
Data from Skew shows that the basis of the ETHUSD swap on OKEx has mainly been on the positive side, while the basis of the BTCUSD swap seems started to take a turn just recently. While the basis sometimes could fluctuate, traders should keep a close eye on the change of the basis.