Looking at Bitcoin’s recent price action, many analysts expressed bearish sentiment.
They primarily cite the ongoing downtrend, which began when BTC was rejected at $10,400 at the start of June. From the looks of it, the move lower has been bearish: the cryptocurrency has printed a series of lower highs and lower lows, a trend with no end in sight.
Chart of BTC’s price action over the past six weeks from TradingView.com
When you factor in market volume, Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook isn’t that much better. Referencing how volume trends also imply that the cryptocurrency market is in a downtrend, a trader said:14 BTC & 95,000 Free Spins for every player, only in mBitcasino’s Exotic Crypto Paradise! Play Now!
“A couple more clues developing that lend themselves to HTF distribution. 1. Rising Demand on the verge of failing. 2. Side by side, ascent vs descent with selling the dominant pressure from volume.” The analyst added that should the distribution scenario play out, Bitcoin could fall under $7,000.
Bitcoin distribution analysis shared by trader “Cold Blooded Shiller” (@Coldbloodshill on Twitter). Chart from TradingView.com
Yet there’s a historical fractal suggesting that just because BTC was rejected at $10,500 and is in a downtrend doesn’t mean it’s bearish.
BITCOIN MAY NOT BE THAT BEARISH AFTER ALL, FRACTAL SHOWS
Believe it or not, the chart below isn’t depicting BTC’s price action over the past few weeks. What the chart depicts is the price of Apple’s stock from a period many years ago, when the asset was trading under triple digits.
An analyst shared in on July 3rd, drawing connections between the chart and Bitcoin’s recent price action. As can be seen in the first segment of this article, Apple over this historic time frame and BTC now look eerily similar.
Both have strong rallies into a range, a false breakout, and then a retracement to range lows.
In the historical case of Apple, the asset rallied after its retracement to range lows. In the ongoing case of Bitcoin, it has as it has slunk back to range lows.
Yet should history repeat itself, Bitcoin will break higher, passing $10,000, then $10,500 as the bull run resumes.
Historical Apple stock (AAPL) chart from trader “Giraffingaround” (@lookitsagiraffe on Twitter). Chart from Tradingview.com
NOT THE ONLY OPTIMIST
The trader mentioned above isn’t the only one suggesting that Bitcoin’s ongoing range is actually bullish, despite the sentiment of the majority.
The analyst who predicted Bitcoin would see a V-shaped reversal in March shared the chart below two weeks ago. Like the chart above, it implies that Bitcoin will break above the ongoing consolidation to $10,000 and b eyond.
Chart by @BTC_JackSparrow (Twitter handle), from TradingView.com
Separately, the trader noted in another analysis that Bitcoin could soon see an “inverse $6,000 capitulation” if it holds $10,000.
The term “$6,000 capitulation” was used in reference to when BTC dropped from $6,000 to $3,000 in weeks during 2018’s bear market.